How Envoy's 5.5 Year Flowthrough Works
 

Here are some conservative flowthrough numbers for pilots thinking about coming to Envoy and for all the pilots out there who say the flowthrough will not work.
Let’s start with some basics about Envoy and the flow. Envoy currently has 1950 pilots on the seniority list. The top 300 have already bypassed the flow many many times and will retire from Envoy. Let’s conservatively make it 250. That means a new-hire has 1700 pilots to get through before he/she flows. Envoy currently has 5-10 pilots leaving every month in addition to the flow, most of which are senior FOs and junior CAs. Obviously, the more senior you become at Envoy, the less of those 5-10 a month leaving help you move up. We will conservatively use 0 attrition to other airlines in our calculation. The pilots flowing to AA are currently flowing at a rate of 30 a month. Yes, AA recalls could slow that down for 2 or 3 months this year, but that is all. We will add that to the final calculation.
Here is the flowthrough contract broken down. The 824 pilots are currently flowing at a rate of 50% of the new hire positions at AA. That can be metered down to 30, and it is. After the 824 pilots flow, it drops to a 35% flow rate. But that bumps back up to 50% when Envoy receives the 40th E-175. That happens to coincide at the time their 824th pilot flows. So, in essence, the flow rate stays at 50% but metered to 25 from the last of the 824 till the pilots hired after October 11, 2011. Then it drops to 35% until the DOS (Date of Signing) pilots. If American continues to hire only 60 a month, then 35% is 21 per month flowing to AA. Then we get to the DOS pilots. The pilots hired after December 2014 will flow at a rate of about 15 pilots per month.
The most recent Envoy pilot awarded to flow has a seniority number of 415. The last pilot hired before October 11, 2011 has a seniority number of 1675. The difference between them is 1260 pilots. If you take a very conservative 25 a month for this entire group, it will take 4 years, 2 months to get to the last of the 10/11/2011 pilots.
The last pilot hired in December 2014 (DOS) has a seniority of 1849. To get to that pilot, it will take another 8.2 months, using 21 per month.
From the DOS pilot to the most recent new-hire is 101 pilots. At 15 a month, it will take 6.7 months.
Add all these groups up and you get 5 years 5 months to flow for a new-hire hired today. As promised, add 2-3 months for the AA recalls and you are at 5 years 8 months. And that is without considering any attrition to other airlines which, like I stated before, is about 5-10 a month. Take that into consideration, and you will be well below a 5 year flow.
These are just the straight numbers and facts on the conservative side. How’s that for “lies” and a “used car salesman” pitch. Obviously we could have a terrorist attack or a major economic collapse or the retirement age could be changed, but no airline pilot would be in a good situation if that happened. I would rather be at a WO airline that could weather the storm.
For those of you who struggle with numbers and projections, you don’t use current reserve, upgrade, or flow to decide which airline you should go to. You need to look at what those times will be for you hired today. Envoy’s most junior reserve, upgrade, and flow are 22 months, 8 years, and 16.5 years respectively, but those pilots went through 9/11, age 65, 2008, and the AMR bankruptcy.

According to the latest Alpa news...we are down to 1859 pilots. That's 100 less to flow.

Know what sounds better...
 

Junior CA at Delta was November 2014 hire... Charlie could upgrade sooner at Delta than envoy...

That was pretty helpful in explaining how the flow works. Even with very conservative numbers, it looks pretty good.

Would Envoy be able to hire 30/25/21/15 per month every month for the next 5 yrs & 8 mo? Can you provide actual new hire data per month in the last 12 months?

Right up until it doesn't. Because airlines never go back on their promises......

There is more to it than that, but in a perfect world, that would be how it works. If Envoy (and the other WOs) can't hire new pilots, then I have to wonder what AAG will do about the flows. I have a hard time believing they will flow themselves into non-existence. So at some point, things are going to have to improve pay/contract wise in order to be truly attractive to new hires.

Will all know Pedro-Ric follows envoys contract to the T. So anything past the 824 will flow smoothly......

Besides, they already said they will park planes to honor the flow, so nothing to worry there.

Good Luck!

That's what I'm hoping for. Other regionals are bumping up first year pay. Envoy needs to follow suit. $26/ hr won't cut it anymore.

Envoy and Piedmont's flows are about the same for anyone hired today. I believe the 6 year or less flow number at Envoy for new hires and Piedmont's is the same.

Even if PSA switched to 10% of the pilot group flowing annually today, it will still take much longer for a PSA new hires to flow to American. The reason being, PSA only has 50 lifers.

The number of lifers is less important and rather the percentage of lifers is. A flow might be 10% of the pilot group annually. But if 15% of the group are lifers, the flow is actually higher than 10% because it's based on the number pilots participating. Piedmont and Envoy both have at least 15% lifers and that improves everyone's flow time with their current 10% flow for new hires. PSA has 5% lifers and only a 4% flow.

How Envoy's 5.5 Year Flowthrough Works
 

Helluva first post. An alt for cr700?

Anyway, some have already covered the issue about airlines (and ENY in particular) have trouble keeping their word.

The holes in GiG's argument other than my previous statement:

They can stop at 39 175's. Not likely, but possible.

Metering. If they can drop to less than 50% now, they can go even lower if it suits them.

New hires. That pesky little problem. Tied to the preceding statement.

His perfect world does not account for the training center slowdowns that generally happen over the winter holiday season and often in July as well.

Is there a chance it could happen? Sure, but it's hard to believe when the company starts promises from a position of unapologetically breaking them.

Historic data at this point does not indicate that they are able to meet even a 15/mo average. I don't have actual numbers in front of me, but I remember the company making a big deal about getting 16 hires one month. Turns out, that was the number of applications, I think class ended up with something less than 10 people.

The numbers posted above are all pretty accurate, but there are other factors in the equation.

Here's an interesting list:

Date Filed / Grievance # / Description
07JAN15 - MEC-0115 - Insufficient Pay Credit for AQP CBTs
18FEB15 - MEC-0415 - Vacation Freeze
19FEB15 - MEC-0515 - Failure to Pay Contractual Signing Bonuses
13FEB15 - MEC-0615 - Cat II Flight Confidence Checks
21FEB15 - MEC-0715 - Peoria Hotel
08MAY15 - MEC-0815 - Improper & Unilateral Changes to Reserve Assignments
16JUL15 - MEC-1015 - Scheduling Contact (during rest / notification)
16JUL15 - MEC-1115 - Issuance of MA/Disciplinary Action from Attempted Contact when pilot has no obligation to answer phone
24AUG15 - MEC-1215 - Missed Assignments for Fatigue Calls
08OCT15 - MEC-1315 - Unilateral Imposition of Cell Phone Requirements
27OCT15 - MEC-1415 - Failure to Honor RAP Preferences
27OCT15 - MEC-1515 - Unilateral Imposition of Flight Time Buffer
27OCT15 - MEC-1615 - Improper OT Denials
30OCT15 - MEC-1715 - Refusal to Remove Touching Legs of when using PVD
06NOV15 - MEC-1815 - Long Term Disability Differential Premium Rates
20NOV15 - MEC-1915 - Right to Transfer 401(k) Assets to SuperSaver
20NOV15 - MEC-2015 - Improper Use of “MA” or “FT” code for “ER”
17DEC15 - MEC-2115 - Improper Denial of PVDs
24FEB16 - MEC-0316 - Leather Jackets
24FEB16 - MEC-0416 - Prevention of Bidding for Recurrent Training
24FEB16 - MEC-0516 - Failure to Minimize 401(k) fees when switching investment options

The above is a list of current group grievances that the union decided were worth pursuing against the company. Add individual pilot grievances and the list is much longer. What is the relevance to flowthrough? Well, when management goes in front of the arbitrator and argues their side, they often don't have any contract-based defense of their actions--because our union doesn't typically go through with the expensive and time-consuming grievance process unless they think they have real backing in the contract language. Instead, management often argues "operational necessity" as a blanket defense for anything they do that isn't contractual. It is an argument that frequently works, since many arbitrators don't want to be seen as detrimental to business.

So what happens if we don't get enough new hires to support both flowthrough and outside attrition? That is a lot of new hires. If we have better flow than other regionals, that means we need more new hires than them to keep it going. So far we have much less. I'm not sure that we have had more than a single month of 30 in the last year, and now you're supposed to count on a flowthrough that requires 72 straight months of 30-40 new hires to sustain it. Can you count on that? When staffing becomes an issue, will the company choose to fully honor the promised flowthrough, even if it means they have to park expensive and profitable airplanes? Doubtful. They currently would rather violate the contract on a given day rather than delay a single flight a few minutes, or use an extra reserve that likely wouldn't be flying that day anyway. As evidence I present the above list. Operational necessity trumps all.

That being said, maybe we will compete harder for new hires, maybe they will throw more money at the problem. But so will other regionals. Or maybe some regional consolidation will happen, and with who knows what effect on flow. Time will tell, and I am not telling people not to come with to envoy. I'm saying that pilots should consider the flowthrough a promise made by people who, today, are not trustworthy. Do not treat the flowthrough as a guarantee, because it is not. Contract language guarantees nothing with this company, spoken promises even less so. If you come to envoy, come here knowing that the flow of the next year or so will cause good movement and bring upgrade times down from their current 8+ years. But look at all sides of the argument before you make your choice. And don't believe anyone who says they can predict the future (me included).

Grasp at straws....I wasn't originally going to comment at all but some of you take the cake.

New uniforms are being rolled out this year and don't include the current leather jacket..so the Union files a grievance. So the next logical leap from there is they will stop the flow?!?!?!?

You sound just like the infamous Val Jester. Moan and complain and convince everyone the flow will never work, vote NO, and don't trust the company...and then BOOM! He flows to AA and now he's an MD-80 FO based in DFW.

He's just the tip of the iceberg. Each month another group of 30 flows and in that group are multiple pilots who spent years regurgitating the same speech about how you can never trust the flow, never trust the company....and then they flow. And all of a sudden they are posting pictures all over facebook of their new hire class, of their AA wings, and all the moaning stops.

Funny how that works, isn't it?

And another note, ORDordinary whatever.....aren't you the guy who owns a rental car business and would always drop their entire month and never come to fly? Are you bitter and angry now that you actually have to come to work?

Very well said

An excellent argument. Some people have a hard time accepting your information. But it makes complete sense and your not the first to attempt to argue this position.

1st year pay is raised with the sign on bonus. Works out to about +$5.50/hr for the $5,000 bonus or +$16.60/hr with the $15,000 bonus for former 121 pilots.

So 1st year works out to be about $31.50/hr or $42.60/hr for former 121 new hires.

Not great, but it's better than $26.

new hires today are saying show me the money!!! They are less worried about 5 years from now then this year. Why should I care about maybe or maybe not flowing when my income is below poverty wages? Should I make 30k or 50K???? How hard of a choice is that???? If I lived up north Endeavor is where I would be right now.

So no Envoy will not be able to hire the required amount of pilots without significant pay increases.

C'mon man you have to realize its more than leather jackets that cause people to question the flow. He listed a lot of grievances and you single one out. That isn't right. No one knows if they are going to continue to honor the flow if staffing becomes critical. Hopefully they make this place desirable and we never have to find out.

The man wrote a thoughtful post outlining a lot of problems with what is being touted.

You chose to yank one grievance out of that lengthy list and attack him personally.

Why don't you stick to the facts if you want to be anything other than an empty megaphone for the company?

It's you guys who are being selective with your facts. Point out how the company has been flowing consistently since taking over from AMR. Talk about 100% flows for most of 2015. 30/month for 2016. That doesn't jive with your selective arguments, does it? Pick anyone of those grievances...none of them are indicative of the flow through. Cat 2? Really? The CBT pay? RAP1 stuff?

Again, most of you will cry and moan all the way up until the moment you flow yourself. Then it's all smiles for the camera, pictures of your AA wings, and so on.

Individually they don't equal a stoppage of the flow obviously. But the sheer number of them is indicative of how the management treats us and the contract. So one has to wonder how management would treat us if we get to a critical staffing situation. If we dont work out a reserve agreement then management chooses to unilaterally do the RAP 1 roll out, then it is reasonable to assume that if staffing becomes critical that management could unilaterally impose something that is damaging to the flow. It is a logical thought process.

Also, we constantly tell potential new hires that what the flow is doing now isn't indicative of the future. So it won't be a 16 year flow in a few years, but similarly we are in an overstaffed situation which makes it easy to send 30 +, but that isn't indicative of the future where we may become understaffed. Works both ways

New hires today have a brain.

How do we account for MESA pilots?

Ha, no, I don't own any business. My only source of income is envoy, along with my wife's smaller paycheck. I am a junior Captain on reserve, and many of those grievances have my name in the group, and have cost me time away from my kids that the contract said I should have had.

People are free to make their own decisions when it comes to their career so let them! Personally, if I were just starting out and was told I could be at the largest airline in the world in 5-6 years I would say sign me up! But that's just me. And before the "envoy salesman" remarks start I'll say straight up this place sucks in a lot of aspects. First year pay sucks, having our contract violated sucks. Lots of things suck. But at the end of the day I can look at those AA pay rates and have something big to look forward to.

Listening to people tell you the flow won't work (and they say it with such certainty) is absurd. The reality is is that it should work. Will it as advertised? Nobody knows for sure 100%. I hope it does. I think it will. I anticipate a few hicups, it's naive to think otherwise. And so what if you don't upgrade and flow in 2.5/5...is a figure such as 3-4/7-8 going to kill you? We're not talking about a flow to Sprit or JB or VA here. We're talking about a flow to an airline that will provide you with a multi-million dollar career and again, the largest airline in the world.

You want to go to Mesa, Blowjets or TSA and then compete with thousands of other applicants for a coveted spot at United or Delta (you can effectively kiss AA goodbye) be my guest. Take the advise of some internet blowhards who are bitter and quite honesty, idiots. Good luck.

Just for the record, I think it is possible, if/when they see that new hires are not flocking to envoy, that eventually management will raise FO pay/bonuses even more than they just did. It may work, it may not, other regionals will be trying desperate measures too. I'm not saying the flow won't happen, just that it's delay/disruption is certainly possible, especially when you have a management team that doesn't see the contract the way we see it (ie, as a legal binding document between two parties). Just like CRM, when making an important decision it is better to have all possible information. New hires should be careful to temper expectations in the face of possibly empty promises.

Post of the day. All things being equal, whether or not you think you will need the flow, why pass up the opportunity to have flow. Better to work somewhere with flow and not need it than to work somewhere without flow and wish you had it.

One may not view the flow as a 100% guarantee but it is a better guarantee than you may or may not get called for an interview.

Your response is interesting and I'm forced to wonder what you know about the pilot supply pipeline. What do you know about the number of pilots in training to be regional airline pilots?

Are you asking for hard numbers? If so I don't have them. Do you? I do know that if you make a career attractive enough, they will come. To me, a career with the potential for lifetime earnings approaching 10 million dollars is pretty attractive.

I ask because your screen name seems to imply you are likely working for a major. If so, you may be out of the loop on the lack of a supply pipeline. In order for a flow to continue to work, there has to be a replacement pilot to fill the seat of the pilot who just left. There isn't a whole lot of pilots available in that pipeline. To me, it's a question of how long American will allow the continued deterioration of there own feed.

To put it another way- if you were American, where would you source your pilots from assuming you want to keep your regional feed working?

Flow already have slowed down from what I have been told. Only 12 notifications went out.


Good Luck!

If you were American and you realized that they Regional Model was broken and decided to put your 175s at Mainline or replace them with A320's, were would you source pilots to fill those mainline positions? Either voluntarily or through arbitration, in an extreme pilot shortage situation, envoy pilots will still make out OK.

envoy pilots can still apply, job hunt, interview at any Legacy or Major Airline, along with all the other regional pilots who have no other choice. I talked with very few envoy pilots who are just waiting for the flow. Outside the 824, almost all of them are searching elsewhere. Even those in the 824 are going to Delta and United.

Come to envoy and there is a slight chance the flow may not work, go to RAH, Gojets, or SkyWest and I can 100% guarantee you won't flow.

He does work for a major. Envoy mainline.

I agree you have better flow odds at Envoy. If you don't mind sticking around for more than a decade, sure, you have a chance.

Exactly.

I went to the WAI, even with the good feedback from the Delta and AA recruiters, I'm still waiting for any email.

The good thing is that I have the flow in the back pocket. I might or might not have to use it in a couple of years.

American, United, and Delta will have no problem sourcing pilots. Besides military pilots, they have an abundant supply of LCC pilots at their disposal. I understand your argument but I respectfully disagree. The options for new pilots are extremely limited to regional airlines. I'm simply stating that envoy is a better regional to start your career at, given the flow and advancement opportunities, then places such as TSA, Mesa, Blowjets, etc;

As for deterioration of feed, envoy is operating flights just fine. There are people who are paid much more then you and I making decisions to protect that.

That dig at me was really quite pathetic. Didn't you just bail out of here for Alegiant?! Excuse me if it's difficult for me to take anything you say seriously!!! Run along little one and let the adults talk.

Rubbish.

Anyone flying 121 today will be at a major within the next decade. Won't matter where one is working right now.

Demographics and the rate of population growth world-wide alone guarantee it, to say noting of other relevant factors.

"Flow" is nothing more than a carrot to lure new hires in lieu of hard cash today. Oh sure, some have to flow. Otherwise the carrot won't work.

But you can be absolutely certain that more pilots will "flow" from the non-WOs regionals (while they last) than the majors will scavange from their own WO'ed regionals. In fact, you can absolutely bet the entire farm on it. Parker and Anderson are not about to create a staffing problems at their WO'ed regionals when they can do so among the non-WO'ed regionals.