This is exactly what I mean by people stating with CERTAIN fact that things won't materialize as advertised. If you're so smart and have such an insight into the inner workings of the airline industry, then why are you a lowely regional pilot rather then a financial or market analyst at one of the big 3?

We're all entitled to our opinions...yours is just much harder to listen to it when you state it as a fact. It comes across as grasping at straws in a feeble attempt to get others to listen to what you have to say. :rolleyes:

That's how I see it. The only way around that I can see is if wholly owned carriers become a new rung on the ladder - ie American and Delta force Non wholly owned pilots to work for their feed in order to be hired at mainline. In other words, RAH and SkyWest pilots can't get to mainline delta or American unless they take a job at a wholly owned regional. Not today obviously but maybe that is in the future.

Again, I just don't see mainline destroying their own feed when there are other viable tasteless options at their disposal.

Actually, I was...before I retired early, then took up flying to scratch a life-long itch.

I don't fly because I have to. That's for suckers. I tell any youngster who will listen....get a degree in finance and go to Wall St. Earn an early retirement, THEN go do what you really want to do in life.

Most won't listen....much less understand simple logic.

Btw, "lowely" is spelled "lowly". But I'm sure you knew that.

Yeah I'm not too concerned with how "lowly" is spelt but thanks for trying to make yourself sound smarter...you're doing GREAT!

So which airline did you work for and do you have any actual insight into what strategy they're taking in regards to their WO's and other regional lift providers? Or is what you're saying all opinion? (stated as fact, of course)

*scavenge

But I'm sure you knew that.

This is still nothing but the most optimistic projections that span over half a decade. 9/11 wasn't anticipated, but it happened. Age 65 wasn't anticipated, but it happened. AMR's BK wasn't anticipated, but it happened. Same with the Gulf War, SARS or any number of other negative factors impacting this historically cyclical industry in the past. Envoy's flow is a risky primary reason to select it solely for that reason and is ripe to be a foundation for disappointment if it is.

Caveat Emptor.

While your polishing rosy hypothetical laurels about Envoy's future flow, how about the 2.5 year upgrade still being advertised ? If 205 F/O's upgrade in 2016, what's the engine to upgrade the other 2/3 to 3/4 or upwards of 700 pilots over the following 18 months ? Envoy will need perhaps 900 pilots over the next 2.5 years just to maintain the flow projections above or Envoy shrinks, requires less captains and is in jeopardy of an inability to provide its lift obligations to AAG. This alone could jeopardize the flow in addition to outside forces unanticipated like so many others in the past. If Envoy claims its situation is now so perilous that releasing 5 more measly F/O's in March to live up to its advertising promises will be too destabilizing (especially with present staffing), imagine what REAL geopolitical or economic speed bumps will result in there.

Hey, it's a nice pitch.........really. But, I think it's founded on "irrational exuberance" concerning the flow and "unconnected dots" regarding the upgrade. I think considering the reality of the number of pilots available now and especially over the next few years, Envoy is in as grave a situation as any other regional in meeting its obligations and the flow through is a by-product dependent on that reality.

If you are right, then an envoy pilot will get hired off the street just like everyone else so it won't matter. If you are wrong and you are at GoJets, RAH, SkyWest etc... it will be too late. I'm just saying an "Ace in the Hole" is better than having nothing at all.


Can you guarantee that between now and your "Guaranteed Off the Street Mainline Job Offer" that you won't have a bad day and fail a checkride, or be involved in an aviation accident or incident? I know of more than a few really good pilots that got involved in a bad situation, not entirely their fault but now have FAA Action on their history. What if your wife/girlfriend goes crazy, makes wild accusations against you and now you have restraining order to explain during your Delta Interview. Lots of things can happen to the flow but there are also lots of things that can happen to make you wish you had it.

For those of you just now joining us, it took eaglefly over 20 years to FLOW, that is why he has become the bitter old man you see today.

And I bet he was told he'd be at American in five years too. Funny how history repeats itself.

You know, we all said this at the regionals 10 years ago too right? Yet we are still stuck here. dhit happens. Still haven't gotten that legacy interview call despite a perfect training record, turbine PIC, 4 type ratings, job fairs, 3.9 GPA, volunteering and playing all the HR games. Pretty glad to have this so called "useless" flow through to fall back on now, as jumping through all the other hoops isn't working for thousands of us regional Captains.

New hires will realize one day years from now that getting that Legacy call isn't as easy as they once thought. Why listen to people with experience though? New hires obviously know better than we do on how this industry works. :rolleyes:

Yawn. Same old puff from the smoke plume. Didn't take me anywhere near 20 to flow, not bitter and not even that old (well, to myopic children I am ;)).

Keep puffing if it feels like blowing off steam. My points are valid and you know it.

That is EXACTLY what we were told in 1997-2000.

EXACTLY.

You're never going to get these jokers to buy into reality here. They just hear what they want to hear and believe what they choose. No rational thought. One guy above even says, "those decisions are made by people way higher than my pay grade." That statement by itself is quite disturbing. Lambs willingly going to their slaughter.

I recognize though that 5 or 6 characters here with clear agendas don't represent Envoy pilots thoughts as a whole. They are on a mission and have a purpose and I can't fault them for that. All one can do is offer another POV. It's clear to me in my interaction with most Envoy pilots, they don't buy into this anymore and obviously the bait used at least so far, hasn't resulted in any stampedes there.

If Envoy wants to be the pick of the litter among regionals, they know what they have to do and so far, they apparently don't think that's necessary.

Speaking of flow, has 5727** numbers flowed yet?

So what?

10 years ago it was foolish to believe that.

10 years ago Congress had not mandated the ATP rule. 10 years ago airline retirements forced by demographics weren't looming as they are now (even with the age 65 increase).

10 years ago no one was giving signing bonuses and pay rate increases.

10 years ago there was no talk of "flow" and upgrades weren't happening in less than 2 years.

Like you said, things change.

Today, it isn't foolish to believe a new hire will be at a major within a decade.

Don't be bitter at today's 121 new hires because they will do in 5-7 years what you have yet to accomplish in 10+. That only makes you small and selfish and feeds into the "us vs. them" mentality that divides pilots and harms pilot unity.

Bottom line: just because it hasn't happened for you yet doesn't mean circumstances won't change (hint: they have) and today's new hires will necessarily experience what you've experienced. And don't be jealous if they don't have to endure what you've endured.

Except when that "ace" is actually a joker.

And I'm just saying that 4 years reserve and 8 years to upgrade is an idiot's trade in exchange for that "ace", given what is known to be happening at other employers right now. Even if those times are "going down".

Doug Parker says hi.

......best of luck.

You're going to need it.

He was just pointing out that the same thing that made the flow not work during the lost decade also made "off the street" hiring virtually non existent during that same time period. YOU are the one making it a personal, petty and divisive issue. Just as a new hire today has better chances of getting to a mainline quicker than someone hiring in 2001, so it will be with the flow. Guess you just can't fix stupid. eaglefly and ag386 meet at the Denny's on the second Tuesday of the month, you'll fit in good with that group.

Hey man, you wanna believe in Doug Parker's word, be my guest.

Me, I'd trust Hillary more than Doug Parker.

And that's saying a LOT.

580750 is the last number selected, and that would appear to have been selected within the last week or so. There's at least a month to month and a half between getting selected and actually going to class, so no telling if 580750 will actually get a class before the AA pilots are required to announce their return before the May cutoff date.

IMO I don't think it's bitterness at anyone else's luck. Them's the breaks, we all know how it is in this industry. The problem lies with the decade of stagnation and then the industry turmoil following that era littered with broken promises and heavy handed management operational changes. Add to that the all but admitted awful treatment of the pilot group designed specifically to make our lives miserable.

That's cause enough for bitterness.

I agree with what was said before. Thats what i was told back in 99". Its all "futures" just like the stock market.. No one can predict that... Or what flow will be. Pick a airline that fits your needs....

You talk like you can't do anything else in this life. Flying is great and all but there is whole world of exciting opportunity out there outside of flying. Flying is best enjoyed as a hobby.

All these developments are really interesting and I enjoy the discussion.

At the end, these are all marketing tactics employed to attract talent. Some use flow, others first year pay, yet others sign on bonuses, quick upgrades – whatever. The good news is that there are plenty of good choices. I think the jury is still out there on which one works – or works best.

The biggest fallacy in all of this – and that pilots love to fall into – is the fact that the pilot career is the biggest pyramid scheme known to man-kind. It makes Bernie Madoff like a small time offender who should have gotten away with 30 days of community service.

Everyone is looking at the multi-million dollar career, flying a 777 for 5 days a month and pulling 250K+ a year.

But like any pyramid, it is getting very narrow at the top and not everyone can get that gig.

So proceed with caution on any argument that says: “sacrifice now because there will be a big payout in x years”. Whether that is flow, lower pay rates or any other concessions. If your are financially inclined think of it as an NPV calculation... time value of money and more importantly QoL does matter!!!

Keep in mind that pyramid schemes only work if you can keep bringing people in down below. Airlines are no different. Life is miserable if you are the bottom of the seniority list with no / little movement because airlines cannot hire.

In the past, this wasn’t an issue. There were plenty of wide eyed flyers willing to do whatever it takes. You could easily “Comair” your operations and start over again with the same assets (airplanes) and management team. The beauty is that you reset seniority in the process and start with a lot lower cost. Because of the initial growth it looks like great progression etc. and the machine feeds itself.

Times have changed and bad behavior / reputation is much more persistent than it was in the past. Making up for past mistakes / ruined reputations will be a lot more costly than it was before. And I think you see that in who is being able to attract talent in the current environment.

This argues for WO no messing with flow in the long rune but then again, none of the data/examples discussed so far are really convincing. It will probably take a long time to rebuild that trust. Time will tell if all these tactics will start the hiring engine again.


My advice to new hires is to look at the overall package – and pay is one of the last things on my list.

Go to a place that:

>> attracts candidates and can fill classes. It sucks to be on reserve. And there are many options out there where you can hold a line out of IOE or a few months after. And think about the pyramid scheme dynamics!!!
>> has a base near/where you live. The only thing worse than being on reserve is commuting to reserve.
>> is a place you are comfortable staying for the long term. You never know how all of this play out. Hopefully you are lucky and you move on quickly. But even being 5-6 years at a place you don’t enjoy can be a long time. None of the lifers I meet have planned on becoming a lifer. But life happens and here they are. Hopefully at a place they are enjoying

I'm not jealous or bitter, I think it's great. I don't know anyone who is jealous.

Your arguments are mostly true. There were actually 2-year and less upgrades at some regionals 10 years ago. I remember at my Mesa interview (I didn't take the job there), they told me 12 month upgrade. And there was talk of flow, after all 10 years ago we at Eagle were flying with ex-TWA and ex-AA flowbacks, who were able to flow back to Eagle because our flowthrough agreement had a provision for them to flow back in the event of furloughs from AA, and the resulting stagnation at Eagle (combined with the fact that the top of our seniority list were given AA seniority numbers and therefore didn't try to leave for anywhere else) is part of the reason we are such a senior workforce with such a long upgrade time. I agree with you though that times have changed. The massive number of retirements is promising, and possibly makes flowthrough less valuable than advertised--like you said, almost all of us will be at a major in 10 years, flow or not.

Another wild card is that I think more changes are coming to the regionals and nobody knows exactly what they are. The staffing numbers don't add up. Consolidation, merging, more flow, etc. Because of the unknowns, I personally think that people should make the flow only one of the many considerations when choosing where to work, not really outweighing the rest. Just my opinion. I don't have any more access to any of this info than any other line pilot.

Here we go again with the "flow is truth" rhetoric from another first time poster management type.

Don't buy into the hype of something that never worked in the past! This same crud was spewed before!

Once again Envoy management thinks you are stupid. They think you can be duped into one of the worst quality of life airlines by the HOPE of something better eventually. In the end, you get to work for an airline with a mile long grievance list, a management comprised of some of the most heartless bastiges in the industry, and once the shiny jet honeymoon is over - a new hire will realize how indentured their servitude is.

Don't fall for it.

That's spectacular advice!

Why didn't I think of that? I'll just upend my family's life so I can go back to school for a finance degree and then work 60-70 hours a week and weekends too. I'll never see them, but I'll tell them that this guy on the internet said I needed to fly as a hobby, and boy was he right. I just need to earn a few million real quick so I can make enough for retirement before I run back to fly airplanes again.

He also refused to let me use his time machine so that I could completely alter the course of my life in a timely manner to avoid all these hang ups like bankruptcies and market crashes.

Thanks for the advice.

Maybe not in your situation but from the beginning I would rather work hard for a handful of years become a millionaire buy my own airplane and live the good life rather than fly for a living.

All you gotta do is work hard for a couple a years to be a millionaire? Sheeet I've been doing it all wrong! Just a handful of years right?

That's nice, honey.

People like you you are clueless and don't get the point.

BTW:
Congress could change the laws to who knows what (again)
Retirement Age could increase (again)
Another terrorist attack could happen (again)
Oil prices could go to $200 a barrel and kill this industry (again)
This industry could completely change around and outsource everything offshore like everything else in this country. (who knows)
Another crew of inexperienced immature pilots could crash another plane again (Pinnacle) and change things up all over again. The more I see how some of these quick upgrade inexperienced young pilots are acting lately, the more of an inevitablity this is.

And
Yes there was quick upgrades at the time at some places
Yes some places were hiring street Captains back then
Yes Eagle and Continental Express did have flow in the past

Yes things look promising now, but they have looked promising in the past as well. Ask anyone who has been doing this for a long time though. Something ALWAYS comes along to change the game. Something big is going to change in the future, we just don't know what it is yet. You seriously think the airlines are just going to let the whole system implode due to staffing in the next 10 years, just completely abolish the regionals and hire everyone to work at the big 3? They will do something and change it all around on us again. We just don't know what exactly that is yet.

Nobody is bitter about the new people moving quicker than we did. I hope they do. We are warning people not to count your chickens before they are hatched and think you are automatically a Major Airline shoo-in with a golden ticket. It's not reality. Especially in this highly volatile ever changing career. Having a backup way in is definitely good to have. Over 500 Eagle pilots have used it in the last couple years instead of being still stuck here waiting for those interview calls that never happen for many people. Many of these guys interviewed at United, SWA and others many years ago, and were turned down for whatever reason, but they are at AA now. Thanks to the flow that people like to call useless.

Has a small pilot group (< 800) where the CP just announced 40 new hires and 24 CA upgrades per month indefinitely. Assuming 2 years...

40 x 24 months = 960

A new hire will be at the top of the seniority list in less than 2 years.

Go for it.

Tell us all how well it works out for you.

If not, lay off the useless advice that isn't going to change anyone's situation. Woulda, coulda, shoulda. It has no place here, unless you wish to start discussing hypotheticals, then I'd love to say we should all win the lottery and get a cushy Wall Street job. Then we can fly for fun our P-51 that we had restored and G-5 to Paris for lunch.

Worked out great for me.

Went to college, got a degree in finance, went straight to the trading floor, then retired in my 30's. Now I fly professionally...because I can, not because I have to.

It happened because I had focus, ambition, and goals at an early age.

If anyone else didn't, they should blame themselves and no one else.

And no one wants to hear them cry about it, either.

Yep. That's me. CA Clueless. I wish I could change my screen name just to mock that comment.

LOL

Hey, you are a hobbyist, good for you! You are also now a member of the tool of the month club!

I fly just as professionally with the same serious focus as anyone who needs the job.

"Hobbyist" is simply a term of jealousy. Anyone who uses it is the real TOTM.

I'm not sure if there are any envoy pilots left posting in this thread haha

Which is fantastic. When haters from other airlines start coming out of the woodwork in mass it means the airline in question is doing something right.