Here Ric, let me help you:

Last class = 3

You still forgot the other classes this year.

The problem is that he actually makes a point. You have a SET amount of people that will be leaving via the flow. Only a WO has that type of problem when it comes to staffing... Which for a pilot is not a bad problem to have! But when you have attrition that surpasses hiring, at what point in time does the flow slow so you can fly the planes you have?

Its a very valid question!

The flow is a great carrot, but your pay needs to rise in order to attract more new hires or else you may end up in a situation where the flow has to slow. Its a business and I can't see them flowing to the point where they cant fly the planes they have.... Can you?

Why do you care so much if you're at allegiant or something? Best of luck with your decision and time will tell if you made the right decision. When your former envoy classmates are flowing to AA, whenever that may be, you'll know then about your decision. And if you're at allegiant at that time then you may regret your decision...if not then you may be proved right. Either way you sound pathetic for the time being.

It's really very, very simple.

"Flow" = a Doug Parker promise.

You wanna put your faith and trust in Doug Parker, of all people, be my guest.

But if you do, and you don't flow, I never want to hear from you about it. No whining, no complaining, no "woe is me". No nada.

You've been warned. And if you don't (or didn't know) who Doug Parker is/was, then you didn't do your homework before making the leap. In which case, no, you STILL don't get to whine, complain, or pretend to be a victim.

Potential new hires should read and reread the above very carefully. It is 100% true.

Why Envoy's Flow Doesn't Add Up
 

A lot of y'all are looking at this backwards. If Envoy can't staff, that means each pilot they have becomes more valuable. It also means they will be more likely to increase compensation and ease work rules to hang on to everyone they've got.

Head on over to the Mesa thread where current pilots are telling newhires to stay away, so they can get a better contract. Less newhires = more leverage for current pilots, not less.

Also, if the contractual flow is violated, Envoy attrition will probably spike and they would lose more than the 25/month that were flowing.

You guys can't sit here and say, "flow is a carrot, and guys are only staying for the flow." Then turn around and say that the company will shut off the flow and every one will just sit here and wait for it to start again. If they shut it down, many senior FO's down to new FO's will see this as sign of what's to come and bail very quickly.

All that said, I don't have a crystal ball. You guys with your solid predictions and guarantees are fun to read, but the truth usually lies somewhere in the middle. One thing is for sure, it'll be interesting times we're heading into.


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You mean the bigger ones in January due to college students graduating at that time? I guess we can look forward to hiring 30ish in June again.

The problem is that we need 72 straight months of an average of 40 to maintain the flow for the length of your projections, and we haven't even had one that size. Management is three steps behind, as usual.

Add Mesa to your list of regionals with bigger class sizes than us. Not sure, but Compass may be there too. Not many doing worse than us.

You're right. There is a middle ground between honoring the flow and shutting it down. That middle ground is, in my opinion, the most likely scenario. The next few years will be pretty fluid at the regionals. Maybe they would just delay it here and there, maybe just short it a little on occasion. And as we have seen they'll try to spin any flow hiccups in any way they can. But any violation of flow costs all pilots who haven't flowed real seniority, real money, real QoL.

You think they wouldn't do that because it would hurt recruiting? What about all they've done in the last 2+ years that have hurt recruiting? They don't seem to care.

I don't believe I know the future either, but that doesn't mean we can't deduce what is more likely than not.

If you didn't already know, Mesa hires everyone they "interview". We could do that too and have well over 50 a month in class. Mesa has a 40% washout rate. The ones that do make it through, consistently have almost double the amount of sim sessions and over 60 hours of IOE.

That is a fair point. I'm glad we don't seem to have lowered our standards. To bad we aren't willing to pay for more good pilots.

Since you're in management, do you care to address any of my other points?