Why Envoy's Flow Doesn't Add Up
 

There are a few cheerleading Envoy pilots here that constantly are in sales mode on the threads relating to Envoy. They are always defending management's actions and looking only at management projections and memos to the pilot group to "sell" their product. They desperately need to sell this product because they need all the new hires they can get. Why? So that they can flow someday in the future. They are desperate to believe that what management has offered is indeed true. Just like those before them, when management's statements of "You'll be at AA in 5 years" came true.......15 years later, they are saying "this time is different." Below you'll see numbers on why this time is different, but for different reasons you will not likely see this flow continue unabated as management has stated.

It's no secret that Envoy, like almost every other regional, is having trouble getting new hires. New hire numbers have averaged between 7 and 10 per month in the first quarter of 2016.

Envoy has around 1850 pilots today. Management originally wanted an Envoy pilot group of around 1600 but that's rapidly changing and you may be near the "floor" management wants right now with their "revised" plans. Why? Because other regionals are having trouble bringing in the bodies to do the work as well. So, after spending the past four years trying to run off as many pilots as possible, management has FINALLY realized that yes, we do in fact need pilots to fly our planes. Especially since AAG has tasked them with more flying due to the other aforementioned regionals inability to get the job done. This is probably the only reason that the light bulb went off.

Now, Envoy truly is beginning to feel the squeeze or find themselves in a pickle if you will. The new hires aren't there and that is the problem.

Envoy has arguably been severely overstaffed the past year. That has quickly turned and Envoy is nearing this new "floor" of pilots on the revised flying plans that management has now. Since it appears that Envoy MAY be staffed properly today, it can be said that as the flow continues over the next few months along with present attrition, Envoy will very soon find themselves in a critical staffing situation.

Hiring 5 to 10 pilots per month isn't going to replace 40 leaving every month. As the seriously pro Envoy Patrol here is so quick to point out. "Do the math."

There will be some reprieve as Letter T pilots make their final decision over the next 6 weeks. Envoy flow will likely be on hold through the summer with only attrition taking pilots off the list. This MAY get Envoy through the summer but I predict Critical Coverage and possibly some vacations being cancelled just to meet the AAG flying schedule they will demand.

Flow could resume as early as September. With the reduced fall flying schedule and picking up 40-50 new pilots from now through the end of summer, Envoy will likely be able to allow classes of 30 to flow for a few months without causing too much of a disruption. This will take them near the end of the 824, which in my opinion, is where the game changes.

Late this year I predict Envoy will find themselves in a situation in which they cannot afford to lose a single pilot. The question is, what do you think will happen at that time? Do you think management will continue to honor this flow and suffer the consequences of idle CRJ700's, E145's and E175's? Or, do you think that they will put an emergency halt to the flow due to operational necessity?

Has Eagle/Envoy management ever violated an agreement with the pilot group in the past? Do you think that this flow agreement is a "sacred cow" that will not be touched? Many on here will say that they cannot as it will halt recruiting completely as that is the carrot drawing the recruits in. If it is, it certainly isn't attracting the hordes to Envoy at present.

My opinion is that Envoy will absolutely not hesitate to halt the flow and deal with the consequences in some other way. I can see them going to the union and hashing out some kind of deal bringing up pay for all Envoy pilots to some reasonable level. But they will not continue the flow in its present form. This new agreement may include an aggregate percentage between PDT/PSA/ENY that will flow as a whole and it will certainly not be 50% of AA new hire classes.

If you are a pilot and looking to a regional, I would strongly ask you to consider the above scenario before signing on the dotted line.

ag386 has a whole bunch of opinions stated as fact. Our new hire classes have actually averaged around 18 the last few months and is now picking up considerably with the new bonuses and 175 to new hires. ag386 has no facts to support his claim. Only opinions. One thing I would like to know is why Envoy has such a target on it in regards to if we can staff for the future. We are getting more new hires than any other WO, and more new hires than most the other regionals except Endeavor and SkyWest. The argument of "ya, everything looks good IF you can attract new hires" applies to every regional, not just Envoy.

The absolute worst part of this is Ag doesn't even work there anymore. You fully moved on to a different airline and still take the time on a Saturday to write this up.
How bitter are you?

Last class = 3

It goes even deeper than that. There is very strong evidence that he never worked at Envoy in the first place. His first post ever claimed a hire date that doesn't exist, and then he was unable to answer very simple, very basic questions about Envoy that any current pilot could.

That's the worst crime in the world isn't it? I DON'T EVEN WORK HERE ANYMORE!

Got to drive you guys crazy when I post things that are based in reality.

And the classes before that?
Do you know what the word average means? Let me help you. You take each classes numbers. Add them all up and divide that number by how many months you included. Seems like basic math but there are a lot of pilots that are bad at math. Let me know if you need help with the addition part of the complicated formula.

If you want people to believe your lies then you can't be that off on well known numbers like pilots hired. Once I saw that I completely disregarded everything else you wrote.

Shocking! They have been saying all year new hires to the 175 in April. I can't imagine why the last class in March only had 3.

Why does it matter if I work here or not Officer? According to you, I've "lateraled" and went to Allegiant. Sorry, I couldn't make that "lateral" move to JB, NK or VA. Oh, for Captains it's a "downgrade" going to any of these places.

Why don't you get back over in the other Envoy thread and write tickets there. This thread is to show the flow isn't going to work as advertised.

Here Ric, let me help you:

Last class = 3

You still forgot the other classes this year.

The problem is that he actually makes a point. You have a SET amount of people that will be leaving via the flow. Only a WO has that type of problem when it comes to staffing... Which for a pilot is not a bad problem to have! But when you have attrition that surpasses hiring, at what point in time does the flow slow so you can fly the planes you have?

Its a very valid question!

The flow is a great carrot, but your pay needs to rise in order to attract more new hires or else you may end up in a situation where the flow has to slow. Its a business and I can't see them flowing to the point where they cant fly the planes they have.... Can you?

Why do you care so much if you're at allegiant or something? Best of luck with your decision and time will tell if you made the right decision. When your former envoy classmates are flowing to AA, whenever that may be, you'll know then about your decision. And if you're at allegiant at that time then you may regret your decision...if not then you may be proved right. Either way you sound pathetic for the time being.

It's really very, very simple.

"Flow" = a Doug Parker promise.

You wanna put your faith and trust in Doug Parker, of all people, be my guest.

But if you do, and you don't flow, I never want to hear from you about it. No whining, no complaining, no "woe is me". No nada.

You've been warned. And if you don't (or didn't know) who Doug Parker is/was, then you didn't do your homework before making the leap. In which case, no, you STILL don't get to whine, complain, or pretend to be a victim.

Potential new hires should read and reread the above very carefully. It is 100% true.

Why Envoy's Flow Doesn't Add Up
 

A lot of y'all are looking at this backwards. If Envoy can't staff, that means each pilot they have becomes more valuable. It also means they will be more likely to increase compensation and ease work rules to hang on to everyone they've got.

Head on over to the Mesa thread where current pilots are telling newhires to stay away, so they can get a better contract. Less newhires = more leverage for current pilots, not less.

Also, if the contractual flow is violated, Envoy attrition will probably spike and they would lose more than the 25/month that were flowing.

You guys can't sit here and say, "flow is a carrot, and guys are only staying for the flow." Then turn around and say that the company will shut off the flow and every one will just sit here and wait for it to start again. If they shut it down, many senior FO's down to new FO's will see this as sign of what's to come and bail very quickly.

All that said, I don't have a crystal ball. You guys with your solid predictions and guarantees are fun to read, but the truth usually lies somewhere in the middle. One thing is for sure, it'll be interesting times we're heading into.


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You mean the bigger ones in January due to college students graduating at that time? I guess we can look forward to hiring 30ish in June again.

The problem is that we need 72 straight months of an average of 40 to maintain the flow for the length of your projections, and we haven't even had one that size. Management is three steps behind, as usual.

Add Mesa to your list of regionals with bigger class sizes than us. Not sure, but Compass may be there too. Not many doing worse than us.

You're right. There is a middle ground between honoring the flow and shutting it down. That middle ground is, in my opinion, the most likely scenario. The next few years will be pretty fluid at the regionals. Maybe they would just delay it here and there, maybe just short it a little on occasion. And as we have seen they'll try to spin any flow hiccups in any way they can. But any violation of flow costs all pilots who haven't flowed real seniority, real money, real QoL.

You think they wouldn't do that because it would hurt recruiting? What about all they've done in the last 2+ years that have hurt recruiting? They don't seem to care.

I don't believe I know the future either, but that doesn't mean we can't deduce what is more likely than not.

If you didn't already know, Mesa hires everyone they "interview". We could do that too and have well over 50 a month in class. Mesa has a 40% washout rate. The ones that do make it through, consistently have almost double the amount of sim sessions and over 60 hours of IOE.

That is a fair point. I'm glad we don't seem to have lowered our standards. To bad we aren't willing to pay for more good pilots.

Since you're in management, do you care to address any of my other points?

Maybe you should apply for a management position, you sound like you'd treat the people ok.

This is ENY, and all things being equal management here will choose the option that costs less in the immediate term and ignore the long term. The flow is constantly on the chopping block because it's a way to control us.

Flow has been, and is being sacrificed, to sweep management's issues under the rug.

It'd be just as likely for them to make everyone here leave until the airline needs to be shut down by their measure, then re-hire all those experienced pilots for cheap at one of the other WO carriers.

It'd be nice if I could believe your predictions, but when push comes to shove ENY has always thrown employees under the bus to accomplish what they want. If there are bonuses, they are the minimum required to keep things running. Never enough to actually change attitudes.

Dr. Malcolm was dead the whole time

They won't do crap. Once a pilot is there very few would ever leave and give up that precious seniority, as if it was worth a million dollars. Management knows that 99% would stay until and unless they are hired by a major. Regional pilots are all talk and no action. I have seen so many flows come and go over the years, maybe 3% of the people I know who have been in the flows have ended up flowing. Pilots will work for promises, there does not have to be any substance behind it. Take the money, don't go to a flow unless it pays the same. You can't feed your kids with promises. If you demand they pay they will. Like they say at Gojet, "why pay everyone more when
a one-time 15k payment allows you to own a guy for 8 years!"

I am not management but I do know that, with our performance, AAG is going to do what needs to be done to staff this place.

The class of 3 was an "extra" class. We have been averaging 18/month which is above the target envoy management is looking for.

Ok! Can I just point out ONE HUGE major flaw in your hypothesis?

If we believe anything you say then your end advice should be, "do no go to any regional that flies American Eagle planes."

If AAG won't flow pilots because they need to keep their regional feed going, then why would AAG hire Compass, MESA, Skywest,or any other regional that flies American Eagle jets??

What AAG is going to do is way beyond your comprehension and mine and is all left up to one simple fact. AAG will take the cheapest way out every time. Or at least make the decision that they think will be the cheapest at the time.

If the flow stops or slows mass exodus will happen with envoy pilots. Just like mass exodus will happen if republic touches their pilots contract.

OK, so I'm pathetic. So what? What I'm trying to paint here is a scenario that could very likely happen and with the facts we have today, most likely will happen. Having been under Envoy management's thumb for several years as a pilot, I am aware of how they truly treat their employees. AdiosMikeFox said it best in a post above. You will be dealt with as necessary and kicked to the curb as necessary. They do not care about you or your plans to make it to AA.

I have to get pretty loud here as the hardcore Envoy supporters will absolutely not entertain anything at all that cuts off their flow. They also paint the rosiest of pictures related to how life really is at Envoy on a day to day basis. I'm telling you. I've been there and it ain't good.

I'm really just putting this scenario out there for those who are thinking about Envoy. You need to consider this and not buy into all that flow baloney that management puts out.

BS numbers. Prove it.

18 per month for TWO months.

The actual average is MUCH MUCH lower. Less than 10 per month for the past two years.

To Parker & co. cost is what matters in a regional, not performance (according to both their words and their actions). If all they wanted was performance they could have left us alone as 95% of AA's feed, instead of whipsawing us and giving our planes away to the lowest, and frequently poorest-performing, bidders.

I agree that eventually their hand will be forced and they'll have to throw more money at the staffing problem. I just think that they will continually do too little, too late. Maybe I'll be wrong. I really can't see why you would trust them so eagerly, given their past and current performance.

Per the MEC newsblast and updated thru 3/15/2016 the new hires YTD is 40. So I stand corrected that the average for this year is 16 per month. I expect that to increase now that RAH has declared bk and with the new-hire bonus programs being offered. Could I be wrong? Sure, it's just an educated guess. But at least my estimates have facts behind them rather then the emotional ones you put forth due to your bitterness towards envoy. How's Allegiant kiddo?

Here is the facts posted in the picture below. New hire numbers with new 15K bonus addition and DFW E175 classes availabe yet to be determined when that was put out. Supposedly much more interest now for the 175 classes but I don't know for sure. Pilots that have flowed from Eagle before the 824 are not included in this count.

Flows never work?
Worked for these 492 guys the past couple years and people are in class again this month. Yes, it took the current flows forever at Eagle since American didn't hire since what, 2001?. OBVIOUSLY that slowed down everyone's career progression out of here. People see those guys have 16 years seniority and freak out or other idiots try to scare people off by saying it will take new hires 16 years as well since that is what it is for the guys currently. That is the past and applies if you were here during 9/11, AA furloughing, flowbacks, Age 65, bankruptcy etc etc. That stagnation doesn't apply to a new hire that wasn't here yet. Things are moving rapidly now since hiring at AA resumed. Hiring at AA is not going to stop anytime soon unless the whole industry tanks again. In which case we are all screwed anyway.

Other people like to trash the flow and say it will never work to try and justify their decisions to leave, hoping it doesn't work out to make themselves feel better about leaving, or others constantly posting negative predictions about it don't even work here at all and desperately want the new hires to go to their regional instead to fuel their quick upgrade mills. Eaglefly is a special case, which is odd for someone who flowed to AA from here, his main goal on this forum for the past year is just to try and make Envoy not get any new hires at all. For some twisted reason he gets a kick out of it. But whatever, Envoy may suck, nobody is saying it isn't a craphole regional, pretty sure none of us have said this is some amazing place to work. It isn't. (But we are supposedly management salesman:rolleyes:). We just work here. It's a regional and it sucks. It's not what it use to be. All the rest of the regionals suck as well, name one that doesn't! This whole regional industry sucks and needs to go away, but the flow here IS working just fine. The REAL numbers below show that.
Attachment 2749

What are the points of this many threads about Envoy Flow? Clearly this is probably another REGIONAL pilot, claiming being at a ULCC. As far as some people want to sell envoy, other wants the flying and new hires for their places.

Back in 2012-2014 many regional pilots wanted the demise of American Eagle, because it benefits them. Now that the wheel is turning around, they want to prevent new hires here by bashing the flow, projection, gaining planes and flying back from them that was given because we voted no.

But why every 2 days there's a new thread about this or that? It's Bs...

At least eaglefly worked here at a moment, the original poster never flew here.

You're only noting the extremes and not mentioning the realists that think the flow will not meet the magic numbers that keep being thrown around by centerport. That's a real, tangible issue.

Mass exodus to where? A lateral move to the next greatest regional?

Mainline is pulling their flying back in. It's evident. Don't chase flow carrots that aren't going to exist in 5-8 years. Do the math, a pilot hired tomorrow at any regional with a flow will not see their number called until at least 5 years from now, minimum. That's if the flow agreements still even exist then. Anyone with any time in this industry knows that 5 years is nearly an eternity.

17.6 per month for the 1/2014-10/2015 data AA flight department released.

I totally understand that. The flow may slow down one day. It may have hiccups. The airline may not even exist in 5 years. I have no idea. They also may raise the first year pay to get more new hires here finally, It has fallen behind everyone and they know it. They may up things to an Endeavor style bonus and steal all their new hires if things go the hell. Who knows?

To be honest. A month ago I would have said they would have never caved and gave us $$$. I thought AAG would NEVER in a million years give our current FO's 20K bonuses. That is a big step in the right direction from them for once. Unheard of in the past with these people. They said they wouldn't give us any retention or any kind of bonus ever just a matter of months ago, yet they just did it out of necessity. Who's to say they won't give more when this scheme isn't enough to try and fight off total collapse of their regional love fest? This is probably just a feeler amount to see if it works. These cheapskates weren't going to go all in yet if they don't have too. If they do decide to pay up like Endeavor in the future, those big classes they are getting over there will be in trouble because this place would all of a sudden be a better choice with a straight no interview flow + $$$.

A lot of things "could" happen.

Whats bizarre to me is that you all want to go to American, an airline to this day that still treats the TWA people like un-wanted step children, and with US Airways, lets not even go there!

Because outside their university agreements, they only get a trickle. The universities only belch out a cluster at the end of semesters and ultimately that alone won't feed the bulldog. All the banter here won't change that either way. Barring any true bombshells, Envoy is virtually certain to have some serious issues by years end.

Of course, it's very likely that all AAG needs out of them as by then, other factors will be in place to allow another path that will suffice for for a year or so. In the interim, it could be a very quiet second half of the year at Envoy flow wise.

There IS another option. ;)