Probably true. I don’t see any new excitement on the horizon for new hires either. They may struggle to hire as many as they did in 19. 800 is a pipe dream

does this mean anything in regard to letter 2 negotiations? if the company cant hire as many as they need, will a new contract come through in the foreseeable future?

currently weighing an offer from XJT against other options, but nervous about the antipathy between management and the pilot group

No reason to come here except base and quick upgrade. Which may or may not get you anything.

Go for places with a definite flow first.

There has been no indication that management is willing to negotiate on letter 2. You should assume it will never happen. Management has already shown a willingness to park airplanes that can’t be staffed. I doubt that changes.

I think that most people, including myself, with aspirations of moving on from the regionals quickly see XJT as an opportunity. However if for whatever reason that doesn’t work out for you I don’t think anyone at United or XJT has any intention whatsoever of making this an attractive place to spend an entire career.

There is a gamble in coming here. If you get stuck you will look back and wish you had gone to an AA WO. If you successfully navigate the Aviate program you will have moved to a major faster than most. If you don’t make Aviate you are just in the same boat as a SkyWest or Republic pilot applying to your dream job OTS.

Each individual must weigh out his or her own priorities and risk tolerance. No one on a message board can tell you the best decision for you.

Wow! DSPS has really changed his tune about this place the last few months.

Leverage comes and goes during contract negotiations, especially at FFD carriers like ours. There will be times that Alpa has leverage due to management wanting this or that, and Alpa will use that to get certain things during negotiations. True for management as well. It's just the nature of the beast.

One thing you can expect is that Alpa/management relations will have highs and lows. If the contract is good enough for you to work under now, don't let the current negotiating atmosphere influence your decision to come here. As in life, everything changes. It's the one thing you can count on: change.

We just got the email.


“IAH E145 Pilots,

February bid packets will be released today. February flying begins our slow build-up to summer flying for United. We begin February with 8,395 block hours in-period, and that's up from our Fall flying. As a result, it's allowed us to build 101 lines for IAH CAs and FOs. So, that's the good news.”

Comparing Jan numbers to Feb numbers for captains:

Total lines increased by 23. Total bidding captains increased by 12.

Total hard lines in Jan were 288 for 503 captains (57.25% hard lines).

Total hard lines in Feb are 311 for 515 captains (60.38%).

EWR gained 3 lines. CLE gained 2 lines. IAH gained 11 lines. TYS is static at 8.

ORD 145 lost 3 lines, but the 175 picked up 6 lines for a net gain of 3.

IAH 175 gained 4 lines.

Now this means very little when we have no clue how many relief lines there will be for each base. This is one thing that I've advocated for over and over again, and that's transparency. If you're a hard line holder, relief line holder, or reserve, you should be able to see bids for all bases when ALL the bidding is done. This would allow for a better idea for what the company is actually doing and trending toward.

As far as most junior awards go for captains, this is for each base:

CLE: 7/2005
EWR: 3/2007
IAH: 10/2005
ORD: 11/2004

IAH 175: 8/1999
ORD 175: 8/2006


For first officers, the most junior hard line is as follows:
CLE: 5/2019
EWR: 5/2019
IAH: 5/2019
ORD: 6/2019

IAH 175: 7/2019
ORD 175: 7/2019

There is a total of 378 total FOs. There will always be more CAs for line check duties and other stuff. There is a total of 893 active pilots bidding for Feb 2020. I know of quite a few on medical leave though, so we can easily say there is at least 900 active pilots.

The seniority list shows 1,426 (as of 1/9) pilots. Out of that total, there is 1,259 active (which doesn't include those on medical/military). So that means we have approximately 360 pilots in training and not bidding yet. Lets say there is a ratio of 55/45 for CA:FO. That means we should have approx 693 CAs and 567 FOs.

I'm not sure how many of the FOs bidding have been awarded CA spots but haven't begun training, but I will say that with the numbers and if hiring continues, one can expect to have a very short sit on reserve, expect to fly a lot, and may upgrade as soon as they get their 1000 SIC part 121 time.

I just call it like I see it. How it gets interpreted is sometimes an entirely different matter. I’m also open minded enough to change my opinions.

I would get a line in February if I didn’t have mil leave. So a few months on reserve for IAH 175 isn’t terrible. Definitely quicker than I thought. Now the question will be if I’m back on reserve after the fall slow down later this year.


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