Furloughs are next. Good times are over.

Unfortunately that is the truth, with United being 70-80% of what its size was there will be furloughs across the board. There will be 2-3 more regionals going out of business and or consolidations. I am currently looking to see what else I can do as a career that is more stable and provides for my family and I. Good luck to all of us and I don't think it will be the end of the world not to fly for a living.

I cannot believe this is all they can do-what about 50 hour lines like UAL ( Republic and even SkyWest!!) are doing. They went very senior.

flynd94, what are you suggesting will happen to you on 10/1/2020? I think we're in a similar situation.

If the bailout happens and they take the grants, the majors will have agreed to not furlough until after September 30th. Unless there is a massive return of flying, which basically nobody predicts will happen......the bottom portion of the lists will all get furloughed come October. Flynd94, myself, and about 1500 other UAL pilots will probably be on the street. That’s a guess, btw.....could be less.....could be more. A lot of them will have the option to do mil stuff, but a LOT of them will have to scramble and find other jobs. If everybody furloughs, there will be no other 121 carriers to work at. The economy needs to be salvaged if we are to have any chance at all.
As for this part of your post.....I could be wrong, but this is where being “owned” by United is going to hurt. All decisions will most likely be made way above your CEOs head, and it will be whatever is best for UAL. The only thing that MIGHT be good for y’all, and not us, is that it won’t be United’s PILOTS they are concerned about, but rather the bottom line.

Hard to say on this one I think, as far as the ownership goes and being good or bad. Willis tower via MANA can
have more, way more of a direct say in how XJT and C5 conduct business. No need really to go through the puppet dictator
of Subdoh.

As opposed to MESA, SKW, RAH, etc being played off against one another and getting a double screw job. First one being the standard issue legacy-regional relationship, second being how the regional CEO’s let all that crap flow down hill to their own pilots whilst fighting for scraps and being played off against one another.

What do guys suggest since the writing is on the wall.

Secure a part 135 freight job now or wait until I get the actual furlough letter.

Right now cargo looks like the grass on the other side of the fence. It’s booming because of social distancing. When that’s over and the economy is in the dumper cargo will also contract. You don’t want to start at the bottom of anyone’s list. Shelter in place. My two cents.

Another element to what United might do is; who is in charge come September? Scott Kirby has been pro-regional/50 seats in the past. It will be interesting to see when the decision is made to furlough or not at mainline. I fully expect that we will furlough but I don't know how many.

After 9/11 the legacies gave into concessions and the regional fleet expanded. When the recovery began the concessionary contracts were the base to begin negotiations and it has been an uphill battle to recover what was given up. The unions have learned from that mistake and are not going to repeat it. This downturn makes the hit from 9/11 look minor. Both legacy and regional carriers will come out of this smaller, both will park aircraft, and there should be plenty of furloughs to go around. United alone has reduced their domestic schedule to 48% of what it was and the flights are still empty. Most of what I read suggest that the recovery will be U-shaped and I’ll take several years. I have no idea what to think of the 50 seat fleet. Both models are getting pretty old. Will they find new life building decimated markets, or will the 50 seat jets and older less efficient legacy jets be retired and replaced with more efficient planes as the market recovers?

Good question. Efficiency will be important if the price of fuel goes up significantly and/or maintenance gets more expensive. Whether either of those two will happen is yet to be seen. Barring any of the above happening, I expect those in charge will opt for keeping what they have, if those aircraft are needed for capacity. New aircraft have their own start up costs that may outweigh continued use of an older fleet with costs that are already budgeted and known. You also have to consider training and parts costs for a new type. New is nice and sexy but during times like these a known quantity is sometimes cheaper and safe. Having said all of that, I think that the capacity needs of the Legacy will be a large part of the equation. I don't see any regionals taking on new or different types any time soon. A significant reduction of regional capacity could lead to further consolidation and/or shutdowns of the various regionals.