DLax85

Here we go, the union rolls out one model, based on one set of data, and the plan is deemed superior.

Everyone, please learn more about “sensitivity analysis” as it relates to modeling

Please independently research “forecast” returns vs “historical” returns.

Additionally (and VERY importantly) did the model above have an “investment cap” - which is a key portion of establishing a “stabilization fund”?

The answer is “No”

In their first “white board” video the union talked about the possibility of a “stabilization fund” in order to offset concerns about large market downturns. The video made a rederence to a notional 10% Cap.

However, when they rolled out their model to show (tout) the above mentioned benefits, the “investment cap” was NOT included

Why?

It would have clearly truncated the “really good years” during this time period and the results would not have been nearly as favorable.

The 15 year guy may not even have been better off. (...most likely he wasn’t - hence, “...let’s NOT include the cap in this model”)

Questions:

Has the “expected upgrade timeline” used been revealed?

Has the assumed “equity/fixed income allocation” been revealed?

(It appears to be 50/50)

Have the index’s for both the equity & fixed income been revealed?

(It appears to be the S&P500, but no word on fixed income benchmark)

Model assumptions and inputs matter! Which circles me back to “sensitivity analysis”.

Research broadly and think critically!

In Unity & Transparency,

DLax

StarClipper

Dude where do you come up with these numbers? They are not guaranteed, the 130k is guaranteed. You must be one of these union guys trying to sell this POS

FastBurner

Retirees Face A "Pension Crisis" Of Their Own | RIA

Please read to understand historical returns (and relationship to lofty valuations).

Cheiron is selling a product. The product must look good to sell...

What happens if there are 5 years of no return or negative returns? Does the hurdle rate “reset” each year? Imagine after 3 negative return years, what return would be needed to get back to hurdle rate? These questions are endless, not answered or negotiated yet, and we already have a B fund with other personal investments that are beholden to market risk. Why voluntarily subject ourselves to market risk?

StarClipper

So focus meeting scheduled for IND tomorrow, why is the registration limited to 15 pilots? Why are they still trying to sell this POS VB Plan?

Adlerdriver

15 is the most the feel they can “re-educate” effectively at one time. Any more and the group might get unruly and start asking “political” or pointed questions that can’t be easily deflected.

StarClipper

Dear Mr PM this tutorial video wasn’t helpful at all, it is a hard sell of that POS. Funny how they didn’t show how those with 25+ yrs on property would fair out. No freeze on the A Plan please. Personally a 60% chance of the payout increasing 153K is not worth the 40% risk. These guys need to get out of office now.

Lots of talk about what you potentially could earn, no mention of the risk involved and what could be loss.

DLax85

Focus groups are what companies and political parties use when they want to "test out" a groups opinion of a new product, a new project, a new political idea.

They are not meant to educate the user, buyer or customer.

It's meant for the producer of the product, so they can learn better about how to re-package, and better market, so they can better sell the product or idea.

Did I miss the results of the phone survey?? ....which also was selective in nature.

Why wasn't the survey put on-line, so everyone could log-in and respond?

Why are the focus groups limited to such small numbers?

Why were the focus groups in MEM held during day hub turns?

Where's the use of technology, where pilots can log-in live, listen to the focus group presentations, and ask questions remotely?

Why haven't all the questions submitted to the company's retirement Q&A website been answered and posted?

All very disconcerting.

StarClipper

When that crap first started and I called it the way I saw it “a sales job” quite a few on here were quick to jump to the unions defense. Some say at least listen to what they have to say. After 2015 CBA I see FDX ALPA as a sales agency

MEMFO4Ever

I sure hope all you experts step up to the plate and volunteer since you can waive a magic wand and make the company give us something we know deep down they will never accept. But please keep talking. At a minimum it gives us something to read while the A plan value continues to fall and we do nothing. Not to worry though, we all know you will not.

Or is it time to talk about all that leverage we have, again.

FXDX

The A plan value isn't "falling". Some folks have maximized their benefit under the plan and accrued a fixed benefit. Many of us still have a lot to gain under the current plan and don't want to "relieve the company of the liability" by taking on the market risk of the investment.