Of the bottom 300 pilots, only 23 are on the 777.

Stock buyback incoming

How many are on the MD?

When the post-911 furloughs started at UAL I was a semi-junior 757 FO at maybe 80% overall. They were north of 10K total pilots so some adjustment should be made in the comparison to FedEx. UAL was furloughing 100 per month and it took them almost 2-years to get to me. The process started with excessing me off the 757 to the A320 almost a year after the attack, training, IOE, flew it for 6 months, excessed to the 737, training, IOE, flew it for 6 months then "see yah". Of course, this was done using the "normal" bidding at most airlines where you get an award (or excess) and are in training the next month.
Untill we see that kind of prep work being done to align our seniority list and get the target bodies into the seats they want to empty, furlough isn't happening. 4.A.2.b is doing nothing for us other than give the company a way to legally cut our pay hours as some of us worry about something that can't happen anytime soon. FedEx has shown time after time that they're far more reactionary than strategic when it comes to manning the airline with a well thought out process. Hence the ridiculously long bid cycle we've all come to hate as just one example.

They'll be aggressively training folks over to the 777 and MD-11 in 2025. I think that you'll be surprised at how quickly they train out vacancy 24-01.

Ok. However, those bodies being trained are the result of VACANCIES!!! Those being trained because of 24-01 aren't replacing junior pilots who were excessed. They're filling additional slots. Big difference.
As I said, until we see pilots being displaced from those same 777 and MD seats and replaced by senior pilots, we're not going to see furloughs. Not a single pilot was removed involuntarily from the ranks of the 777 or MD FOs in 24-01. Same for 767s across the company. They only did that with the 757 CAs and A300 CAs. If that's their start to a re-alignment, it's anemic and signals a long and ineffective effort to work towards a furlough. At that rate, they'll be ready to pull the F trigger after a couple more bids sometime in 2027 or 2028. They can't figure out their new business plan for next year at this time. Hey, I'm no expert and like everyone it's just my opinion. But come on. There are some furlough basics that are part of every F event.

Just my opinion...

It is easier for them to furlough with junior pilots spread across the fleets. Only skimming off the bottom. If the seniority on the fleets was with all junior pilots on the 757, then if they furloughed 100 or 200 757 FO's then they would have to push pilots down into the 757 seats to keep the fleet manned. Hence what happen to pax pilots before. Hiring into all seats is a fairly new occurance. Allows the company to train a lot more pilots in a shorter time, less back ups.

As someone pointed out only 30 junior pilots out of the 300 bottom are on the 777. They could fill those seats with RF2 captains and pick up the slack with less reserves or just making xpairings. Those trips will get picked up. Plenty of ..ores out there. Just saw a very junior 777 guys calendar with 120hrs on it for multiple months. So yes they can furlough. I said earlier, the threat is bigger than actually doing it. Look at all the mitigation the union is doing just to keep 4a2.. from forcing lower BLG's.

They're filling vacancies (adding bodies), so that they can break up the pairings, spread out the hours and lower the BLGs on the 777 and MD-11.

The company started using that scare tactic a year and a half ago through the mouths of their agents in our union. Back then it was 800 furloughs, but because they thought we were all spineless cowards, they didn’t think they needed a plan to make that happen. So it didn’t happen. We’ll see how it plays out.

For the record...... I don't believe that we'll furlough. But management is making every move necessary to get us into 4.A.2.c and keep us there until enough folks leave (Retirement or Resignation).