Rogue

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/gener...ILOTS03128.xml

Don't know if this is the right forum for this but since I'm a student pilot I figured this is a good spot.

sooo..... I'm the prototypical mid 30's career changing kind of dude and like anyone who is investing in their future I'm trying to make a good decision. I see articles like this and it gives me hope that I can find a decent paying job when I finish training and building hours however I've read on this site several times about people being laid off, furloughed and whatnot. I know nobody has a crystal ball but... how do ya'll see the future of this industry?

My long term goals would be to work at Fed Ex or maybe do the dual rated thing and go corporate... who knows though I may find fufillment flying fishing charters in Alaska

I think the industry may hit some hard times but will eventually "bounce back" and if I figure right by the time I finish part time training and move on to full time training I might just hit that window of oppurtunity just right.

de727ups

The two people quoted in that article make money off of pushing that there will be a pilot shortage. That said, there are some thing there I agree with. One is the need for pilots overseas. Still, to get an overseas contract you need a certain level of quals which takes a while to meet.

At 35 and just getting started, I'd say it's highly unlikely you'd make it to Fedex. Sorry, but I see that as the most coveted top job that everyone is after.

That said, if you really love flying, you won't have trouble finding a niche in the biz. Be flexible and always be looking to move up a rung on the ladder.

jban642

I agree with ups. Overseas has very good opportunities right now if you are qualified. But I am shore that you will find your niche. It a fight to the top and just stick with it and you will be fine.

Rogue

That's exactly what I was afraid of.

"At 35 and just getting started, I'd say it's highly unlikely you'd make it to Fedex. Sorry, but I see that as the most coveted top job that everyone is after."

I realized its a coveted job so I appreciate the honesty. I must ask why however? just not enough time to build the experience? Its not a heartbreaker or nothing - I just know they pay very well! but yea I, so far, love flying so just doing that instead of what I currently do will almost be reward enough.

Pilotpip

Because it's a coveted job with thousands of applications on file already. They're currently not hiring but it's about to become a much more coveted job as qualified pilots are furloughed.

Rama

If anyone thinks there is a pilot shortage, they should ask the former pilots of Aloha, ATA, Champion, Skybus, and Tradewinds about this "shortage."

rickair7777

FDX and UPS don't hire as many folks as the pax airlines (their airplanes spend a lot of time sitting on the ramp).

They have the highest pay and best job security in this market. This makes them highly competetive.

Both hire a lot of military...you're too old to even consider that.

Civilian candidates who get hired not only have a lot of experience, they have inside connections to provide recomendations, AND they are generally above average in most regards...better grades, training records, good in the sim, test well, interview well, clean record, etc.

If you really bust your hump and seize every opportunity, by the time you get all the experience and connections you will probably be 50...even if they hire at age 50, your QOL and career progression would be doomed by age. As a career changer you will not be able to aggressively pursue every aviation opportunity unless you want to end up divorced and estranged from your kids.

Also the first 5 years WILL NOT provide a liveable wage if you are used to the real world. At age 35 PLEASE do not consider going into debt to do this. At your age you will need to pay cash for training AND have cash reserves to cover the shortfall during the early years. If you have a job skill which is flexible and will provide side income, even better. A few days doing freelance or consulting will often net more than an entire month of regional pay.

To put things in perspective, you are a middle-aged guy looking at taking some accounting classes at a community college, but hoping to get a trader job at a Manhattan brokerage. You REALLY need Ivy League education and blue blood connections. Even with a lot of experience, you still won't get that trader job.


As for the future...

There is no reason to believe that airlines will not continue to exist. There have always been cycles (we justed started a down cycle) and things always come back up. The only real bogeyman is oil...if prices don't stabilize and drop many average joes will get priced out of flying and the industry will shrink for good. It might take ten years for this to happen, during which time there will be little hiring and no career progression.

I'd go to your local airport and work on a private pilot ticket. Have some fun and see how much you really like flying. Watch what oil does for the rest of the year and maybe make a decision in 2009. Read the online airline forums to get a feel for what's happening in the trenches.

Slice

The prime minister has spoken!

Fwiw, although I had a delay of a few years due to going to UPT for the guard, it was almost 14 years to the day from my first flight lesson to my interview at UPS. I started at 20. While I don't regret the road I have taken and certainly not the outcome, I'd hate to financially have to start over and live budget wise now like I did in my 20's!

Rogue

Thanks Rickair and everyone, like I said definetly not a heartbreaker just saying who wouldn't want to make that Fedex payscale anywho... yes that is exactly what I'm doing - I work full time in my current career, I am getting close to my first solo doing part time weekend training. I save as much each week as I spend flying, paying as I go, so hopefully next year I can quit my job and train full time or maybe still work part time. With the recent turn of events - price of oil, pilots on furlough, airlines closing and cutting back I was worried about continuing on towards a new career path. For example, in my industry I know enough about it I can make reasonable guesstamations about the future needs of the industry. Right now my services as an auto technician are in high demand as people can't afford to buy new cars right now and are keeping their older cars longer - thereby needing more wear and tear repairs. However the industry as a whole has already shifted and is contiuing to shift more towards maintenance and unit replacements rather than repairs. Also the technology upgrades are changing repairs from mechanical work to more electrical - avionics instead of engine rebuilding if you will. So in short over the next few years there will be less and less need for " a wrench" and more and more need for "technicians". So in researching the aviation business for every pilot I hear say "what pilot shortage I can't find a job" I can find an article like the one I linked to saying "we need pilots" "we need instructors" etc, etc. I'm just trying to do as much due diligence in regard to my future well being as I can. My long term goals would be to make $50k within a year or two and make $100k in three to five years time. Does that sound like a reasonable goal? Thank ya'll for your time.

PS - I'm not changing careers solely for the money - I'm on pace to make $65k this year, God willing ( commision ), so money is not the main issue for change - though I certainly wouldn't mind making more!

flyingback

I was doing $65k a while back in RJs ... various career setbacks occurred ... now with currency, jet pic, and >2k turbine time I think I'll be happy (ish) if I break 50 in 3 and 100 down the road Other than timing, I'd say I have plenty going for me. Still, auto repair sounds like an attractive alternative ... I might even be able to afford flying myself occasionally if I did that instead.

Coming from the bottom ... again ... aviation's not all as bad as some try to make out, but thinking outside the lines helps. Especially towards the private/charter/frax end of things.

(As my story would show, it's important to remember that a break in employment can lead to much higher losses than other fields. Worth remembering.)