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-   -   Pilot shortage myth? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/flight-schools-training/76727-pilot-shortage-myth.html)

atpcliff 08-17-2015 02:36 PM

An airline I worked at had starting pay of $33/yr. quite recently. Now it is about $55/yr.

Endeavor is paying $20k yr. for for years as a longevity bonus.

China small Airbus base pay went from $12k/mo. to $25.8k/mo.

China E-145 base pay now $15.5/mo.

Southern Air was sched to have 26? 737s flying for DHL. They can't crew more than four.

Atlas has lowered mins four times. They used to require 1000PIC Jet. Now about 20% of each class has 0 Turbine PIC.

SWA lowered their mins.

Fedex had a recent class with 1/2 no shows.

AA check airman guy told me SWA also had a new hire class half no show just recently.

Emirates is suffering over 10% departures per month...back to DECs (direct entry captains), and many road shows for new pilots...no one shows up. Last one was JFK: Had hundreds of chairs set up for prospective new hires. 7 pilots showed up.

AA guys told me training is maxed out. Within 2 years their training requirements will be at least doubled...keeping PHX and Charlotte training centers, in addition to DFW.

The pilot shortage tsunami is slowly building.

DAL guy told me they are planning for Ab-Initio program for DAL down the road.

SeannyP84 08-17-2015 03:20 PM


Originally Posted by JohnnyG (Post 1483804)
I'd like to see actual proof of record enrollment, and actual proof of a shortage. Stop spreading this crap just because you 'heard it from someone at the school or the airline'. I keep track of several major schools in my area. None of the CFIs have offers, non can get interviews, and there is not record enrollment.


My school is having trouble keeping instructors... They are all leaving for airlines. I know that's not an industry wide snapshot, just what I see.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thedude 08-17-2015 06:39 PM


Originally Posted by atpcliff (Post 1951148)
An airline I worked at had starting pay of $33/yr. quite recently. Now it is about $55/yr.

Plus you were at the company's beckoning call.
They payed low because they could. I think they payed that for the DC-9 back in the late 90s and lower for the DA-20.


China small Airbus base pay went from $12k/mo. to $25.8k/mo.

China E-145 base pay now $15.5/mo.
They have failure of the medical of somewhere in the 80% range, not to mention not so great T&Cs. Wanna be fined for a bird strike or blowing a tire?


Southern Air was sched to have 26? 737s flying for DHL. They can't crew more than four.
Folks are quitting after they realize the skeds are beyond horrible and no home basing for the 73. A few are getting the type and then bailing.
Only shortage there is folks with self respect.


SWA lowered their mins.
Don't know about that one. They did drop the type requirement a few yrs back. Than again the love is gone at LUV.


Fedex had a recent class with 1/2 no shows.

AA check airman guy told me SWA also had a new hire class half no show just recently.
Did you overhear that at 31 flavors from somebodys cousin?


Emirates is suffering over 10% departures per month...back to DECs (direct entry captains), and many road shows for new pilots...no one shows up. Last one was JFK: Had hundreds of chairs set up for prospective new hires. 7 pilots showed up.
EK is not the "deal" it used to be. Working conditions have deteriorated over the past few yrs and I believe there attrition rate was around 10% to begin with.


AA guys told me training is maxed out. Within 2 years their training requirements will be at least doubled...keeping PHX and Charlotte training centers, in addition to DFW.
Yup, tons of furloughees are keeping the pipeline full while the "new AA" shrinks (not grows).


Yet more stupidity posted by Cliff Claven.

HuggyU2 08-17-2015 08:29 PM


Originally Posted by atpcliff (Post 1951148)
SWA also had a new hire class half no show just recently.

I heard this from an SWA F/O friend of mine. Interesting.

doublerjay 08-18-2015 03:47 PM

Flight school that I work at is having difficultly getting/keeping instructors.

The people with the times that allow them an ATP or Restricted ATP or can get an ATP are gone or going to the airlines as we type. Those with the times to go to the majors are going and or soon to be gone. August of next year is the 24 month cutoff for those who took and passed their ATP written prior to the ATP rule change. Watch what happens then. Can you say Multi-Crew License?

I see both sides of this post. The regional's are a self destructive industry feeding off their young so to speak, drawing up anyone with the minimum requirements.

Right wrong or indifferent, it's movement creating a hole at the bottom.
Maybe not a pilot "shortage" but as a CFII/MEI near the times airlines want, I'm getting a lot more email and snail-mail traffic than ever before. Lot's of opportunity out there where there was none 5 or 6 years ago.

krudawg 08-18-2015 09:10 PM


Originally Posted by bedrock (Post 1951129)
I guess the question is, is the career you had going to be the career the future pilots will have and will it be worth it? 7-8 yrs as an airline pilot topped out at 45K? Commuting across the country, living in crashpads for 80K as a captain with 11-13 days off? Constantly being threatened by whipsaw? Waiting, waiting for a legacy job that may not happen and which will cause you to restart again? Envoy tops their FO pay at 4 yrs, and it is pretty pathetic pay. CA tops at 12.

Son, there will always be strikes or other labor issues and even bankruptcies along the way in any pilots career. Low pay is just one part of the equation. What is important to the young aspiring pilot is to keep your overhead low and the ability to jump from flying job to flying job until you find an airline that is willing to pay a wage that will keep the talent in house. They are out there. There are other forces determined to make sure wages a fair for pilots - ALPA, supply and demand, and a management who is trying to keep the "revolving door" of pilots in check to hold down the training costs of new pilots. My experience is a pilot's best friend is a close relationship with ALPA. They are not perfect but their vision of labor and wages that sustain that labor force prove time and again their value to a pilots career

bedrock 08-19-2015 12:01 AM


Originally Posted by krudawg (Post 1952035)
Son, there will always be strikes or other labor issues and even bankruptcies along the way in any pilots career. Low pay is just one part of the equation. What is important to the young aspiring pilot is to keep your overhead low and the ability to jump from flying job to flying job until you find an airline that is willing to pay a wage that will keep the talent in house. They are out there. There are other forces determined to make sure wages a fair for pilots - ALPA, supply and demand, and a management who is trying to keep the "revolving door" of pilots in check to hold down the training costs of new pilots. My experience is a pilot's best friend is a close relationship with ALPA. They are not perfect but their vision of labor and wages that sustain that labor force prove time and again their value to a pilots career

Ok, thank you for your historic perspective on the aviation career. However, how much "jumping" and for how long until you got the "career" job? The problem with jumping around at the regionals, is they all stink and the reset of seniority and pay isn't worth it. Major airlines could not care less about keeping "talent" in house. They have been outsourcing all those problems to somebody else; don't you realize that? ALPA has failed miserably in keeping any kind of good wage structure in the regionals and its national reps have advocated in an letters to the Eagle MEC to take concessions.

ALPA did nothing to support a strike in sympathy with COMAIR either. There has been very little hiring into the majors for 10 yrs, during that time a brutal whipsaw game was played. ALPA's mantra was take concessions and live to fight another day. Meanwhile the airline career was killed off by age 65, 250 hr commercial pilots being hired as airline pilots, and the ever growing outsourcing of flying to cheaper and cheaper feed using at first 40 seaters, then 50. then 76. ALPA uttered nary a peep, until they had a full fledge revolt from fed up regional pilots who were yelling louder and louder to dump ALPA at the regionals. Regional pilots realized they were subsidizing not only huge airline profits, but also mainline salaries and offered nothing in return, other than "one day, it will be your turn". All that did not take place during your past history in the airlines.

krudawg 08-19-2015 04:52 AM


Originally Posted by bedrock (Post 1952066)
Ok, thank you for your historic perspective on the aviation career. However, how much "jumping" and for how long until you got the "career" job? The problem with jumping around at the regionals, is they all stink and the reset of seniority and pay isn't worth it. Major airlines could not care less about keeping "talent" in house. They have been outsourcing all those problems to somebody else; don't you realize that? ALPA has failed miserably in keeping any kind of good wage structure in the regionals and its national reps have advocated in an letters to the Eagle MEC to take concessions.

ALPA did nothing to support a strike in sympathy with COMAIR either. There has been very little hiring into the majors for 10 yrs, during that time a brutal whipsaw game was played. ALPA's mantra was take concessions and live to fight another day. Meanwhile the airline career was killed off by age 65, 250 hr commercial pilots being hired as airline pilots, and the ever growing outsourcing of flying to cheaper and cheaper feed using at first 40 seaters, then 50. then 76. ALPA uttered nary a peep, until they had a full fledge revolt from fed up regional pilots who were yelling louder and louder to dump ALPA at the regionals. Regional pilots realized they were subsidizing not only huge airline profits, but also mainline salaries and offered nothing in return, other than "one day, it will be your turn". All that did not take place during your past history in the airlines.

Oh, I forgot to mention - It's important you stay positive when working towards the goal of career pilot. You seem to be the "glass is empty rather than half full" kinda of guy. Start looking for a comfortable state or federal job sitting behind a desk putting in your 9 to 5 shift. You will never have to worry about retirement, the pay is good and your paycheck will never bounce.

John Carr 08-19-2015 12:28 PM


Originally Posted by Thedude (Post 1951275)
Don't know about that one. They did drop the type requirement a few yrs back.

That's not accurate.

Years ago they dropped the type requirement to be considered for interview ONLY. If selected, the candidate STILL had to acquire the type. It WASNT till this latest SW app window that the type requirement OFFICIALLY went away.

And keep in mind, somewhere around late 2005-early 2006 SW UPPED the TPIC requirement to 1300. Didn't last long, but still.


Originally Posted by bedrock (Post 1952066)
ALPA National did nothing to support a strike in sympathy with COMAIR either.

Somewhat fixed it for you. Pilots paying dues ARE ALPA. After Timmy Martins of course ;)

But I remember having my dues levied an additional amount to help pay their strike fund.

So to say they did "nothing" is a little extreme. We're you in this game then, paying additional dues? As well as supporting them in their strike?

CrabSquatch 08-19-2015 12:35 PM

Does TPIC count ANY turbine or just turbojet?

'Squatch
Who is an inquiring mind


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