Decisionmaking
10-12-2013, 06:58 AM
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Decisionmaking
Before jumping into a discussion of the intricacies of human decisionmaking with both feet, however, it seems proper to address professional ethics. Although much has been written on professional decisionmaking, professionalism in decisionmaking is often completely ignored. Only rarely are we reminded that we are bound by professional duty to treat every decision as an opportunity to improve our employer's chances of success. Since making decisions is the pilot's bread and butter, at least a brief reference to the ethics of decisionmaking in line operations seems in order.
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Decisionmaking is formally addressed by decision theories which may or may not propose decision models depending on the condition under which decisions are made. Whereas there is a lot of money thrown at so called "smart" models such as those conceived for the data processing industry, few studies exist on human decisionmaking that do not, sooner or later, fall into the "rationality trap." Those so caught devote the rest of the study trying to explain their way out of the "pit." These studies are useless for the pilot. However, those that recognize all mental faculties (e.g. intuition, memory, perception, reason and others) are worth reviewing. As stated earlier, the intent of this chapter is not to explain how we decide: its intent is to discuss those aspects of decisionmaking that are vital to pilots. If the reader is a line pilot, he is encouraged to meditate on the importance of handling decisions under all conditions, and on the effect of human nature on a skill he must master.
Decision theories address three types of decisions: decisions under conditions of certainty, decisions under conditions of risk, and decisions under conditions of uncertainty.
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All rational decision models suffer from two major defects. One, they require a choice among alternatives, which makes it impossible for them to cope with decisions that must be made in the absence of alternatives. Two, they are silent on decisionmaking faculties that do not follow a process of selection from existing options. If no options exist, this defect leaves the decisionmaker dangling from the end of a thread. His only hope is to climb back up and refer back to decision theories for guidance, which, generally, state:
Decisionmaking on the line must often take time into account. Once it has been determined that a decision is needed, we must determine how much time we have to decide. Depending on circumstances, we must also take into account the time needed to implement and execute a decision. The rule that has survived the test of time is
Where a hierarchy is involved, such as multiple crew complement, decisions should be distributed. Consistently good decisions can be expected by applying the Half Time Rule (or Half Rule) of delegation.
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To maintain focus on goals, line decisions should seek adequacy. Adequate decisions in time are useful; perfect decisions too late are useless. Whereas there can be only one best decision, the number of adequate decisions is limitless. Decisions and decisionmaking are assessed according to the authority under which they are made. Command decisions are sound if goals are reached; executive decisions are sound if orders are carried out; and staff decisions are sound if the prescribed decisionmaking process is followed. However, procedural choices among fixed options is not universally recognized as genuine decisionmaking.
Neither recklessness nor vacillation is tied to the speed of decisionmaking. Young pilots tend to take unnecessary chances; older pilots tend to be overcautious. Although both tendencies invite danger, excessive caution is seldom seen as dangerous despite evidence. In quickly deteriorating situations, bold decisions are the safest. (G.N. Fehér, Beyond Stick-and-Rudder, Hawkesbury, 2013, p. 188, 191-192, 194-195, 202)
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Decisionmaking is formally addressed by decision theories which may or may not propose decision models depending on the condition under which decisions are made. Whereas there is a lot of money thrown at so called "smart" models such as those conceived for the data processing industry, few studies exist on human decisionmaking that do not, sooner or later, fall into the "rationality trap." Those so caught devote the rest of the study trying to explain their way out of the "pit." These studies are useless for the pilot. However, those that recognize all mental faculties (e.g. intuition, memory, perception, reason and others) are worth reviewing. As stated earlier, the intent of this chapter is not to explain how we decide: its intent is to discuss those aspects of decisionmaking that are vital to pilots. If the reader is a line pilot, he is encouraged to meditate on the importance of handling decisions under all conditions, and on the effect of human nature on a skill he must master.
Decision theories address three types of decisions: decisions under conditions of certainty, decisions under conditions of risk, and decisions under conditions of uncertainty.
...
All rational decision models suffer from two major defects. One, they require a choice among alternatives, which makes it impossible for them to cope with decisions that must be made in the absence of alternatives. Two, they are silent on decisionmaking faculties that do not follow a process of selection from existing options. If no options exist, this defect leaves the decisionmaker dangling from the end of a thread. His only hope is to climb back up and refer back to decision theories for guidance, which, generally, state:
"Decisions under conditions of uncertainty must rely on subjectivity, the product of previous decisions, and their results under similar circumstances."
...Decisionmaking on the line must often take time into account. Once it has been determined that a decision is needed, we must determine how much time we have to decide. Depending on circumstances, we must also take into account the time needed to implement and execute a decision. The rule that has survived the test of time is
"Adequate decisions in time are useful; perfect decisions too late are useless."
This is where judgment regarding the advisability of allocating time to gather and process information versus the risk of losing the window of opportunity to act is needed.Where a hierarchy is involved, such as multiple crew complement, decisions should be distributed. Consistently good decisions can be expected by applying the Half Time Rule (or Half Rule) of delegation.
...
To maintain focus on goals, line decisions should seek adequacy. Adequate decisions in time are useful; perfect decisions too late are useless. Whereas there can be only one best decision, the number of adequate decisions is limitless. Decisions and decisionmaking are assessed according to the authority under which they are made. Command decisions are sound if goals are reached; executive decisions are sound if orders are carried out; and staff decisions are sound if the prescribed decisionmaking process is followed. However, procedural choices among fixed options is not universally recognized as genuine decisionmaking.
Neither recklessness nor vacillation is tied to the speed of decisionmaking. Young pilots tend to take unnecessary chances; older pilots tend to be overcautious. Although both tendencies invite danger, excessive caution is seldom seen as dangerous despite evidence. In quickly deteriorating situations, bold decisions are the safest. (G.N. Fehér, Beyond Stick-and-Rudder, Hawkesbury, 2013, p. 188, 191-192, 194-195, 202)
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