Just curious... are you, The Dominican, suggesting that at any point in the future your predictions will age better? Cause this ****e is just getting started, unfortunately.

Any changes to your predictions? Go back and reread your early optimistic predictions when we all said this is much worse than a SARS event.

Man oh man. I specifically remember reading this post on February 29, while relaxing in the completely empty Pier lounge in HK, waiting for my Cathay flight to the States. I also remember seeing the acres of parked aircraft covering all of HKG's tarmac, and thinking "you know, this guy might be right. I should probably log onto my retirement accounts and just shift everything into cash." Well, I didn't. Instead I just ponied up to the bar for another Black Label.

Probably the most expensive drink I've ever had...

Same for me. I flew on a beautiful clear night around the same time from the Gulf of Mexico over Houston for DFW. Amongst the lights something was very odd just offshore. A huge number of ships were lit up and anchored offshore with no business to carry on with. I thought, "oh sheet, sell everything". Nope, wandered off on some other tangent after landing since my attention span is slightly better than my Yellow Lab's.

Did you at least have some dan dan mian?

Just had some of that in the lounge last week! That is some damn good soup.

You know, it's funny, I actually have a picture of the menu on my phone here and no, I had the wonton noodles (the other noodle choice). I should post a picture of the absolutely empty Wing lounge (memory failed me...it wasn't the Pier, it was the Wing First, since the Pier had already been shut due to Covid). Anyhow, the absolutely empty lounge, the fact that I got a cabana with no wait on a Friday night right before all the red-eyes departed, and most obviously the deserted HK terminal with the sobering sight of countless CX, HKA aircraft idled on the tarmac... should have given me a clue.

I remember disembarking from the flight I took that night, finally having arrived back in SFO and thinking "ok, I'm back in the States, I won't have to worry about all this Covid stuff anymore." Hah! How ignorant I was...

Three weeks later, my home city (SF) went into lockdown and we all know how it's gone since then.

I might have been a bit off...:)

. I give you credit for admitting overlooking the available data back then. Things aren’t getting better, they are getting worse, sadly.

A couple of places in China are beginning to accept applications again although I haven't heard of any actual hiring yet.
No wide body flying for the foreseeable future and the 737 and 320 contracts are expected to be way below in terms of T&C's than before.

The rest of Asia is in the tank, I don't think we will see any hiring of foreign pilots for at the very least another year or two.

The economy mess the pandemic will leave behind will be much worse than the pandemic itself.

I really though that at least in Japan, the resilience shown during other pandemics or economic fallout was going to show in this case as well, but for the first time in the 13 years I was there I've seen both ANA & JAL actually bunker down and scale back, when before they would forge ahead and even invest during downturns.

From October forward will be painful for many of us! Best of luck to everyone...