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Old 02-06-2020, 03:33 AM
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How things have changed in just a few months, many companies in China have sent all their foreign pilots home on leave without pay. Not known for how long! Very different environment than just 6 months ago.
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Old 02-06-2020, 07:27 AM
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Originally Posted by The Dominican View Post
How things have changed in just a few months, many companies in China have sent all their foreign pilots home on leave without pay. Not known for how long! Very different environment than just 6 months ago.
I bet they will be surprised how few will return after finding employment elsewhere.
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Old 02-06-2020, 07:46 AM
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Stupid is as stupid does!!
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Old 02-06-2020, 06:31 PM
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Too bad. I was looking forward to putting apps in to experience exotic viruses.
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Old 02-17-2020, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by The Dominican View Post
How things have changed in just a few months, many companies in China have sent all their foreign pilots home on leave without pay. Not known for how long! Very different environment than just 6 months ago.
Donít gloat too much yet Dominican as all of Asia is way down. The 300+ Positively tested victims in Japan wonít help matters much. How many people in Japan now routinely avoid going outside and always wear masks when going out? This thing has potential to drastically effect Japanís air travel demand, also Asia and perhaps the entire world also, so donít sound so exuberant in the Expat pilot communityís demise in China. It very well could be knocking on Japanís doors.
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Old 02-17-2020, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by EXPAT1 View Post
Don’t gloat too much yet Dominican as all of Asia is way down. The 300+ Positively tested victims in Japan won’t help matters much. How many people in Japan now routinely avoid going outside and always wear masks when going out? This thing has potential to drastically effect Japan’s air travel demand, also Asia and perhaps the entire world also, so don’t sound so exuberant in the Expat pilot community’s demise in China. It very well could be knocking on Japan’s doors.
Highly doubtful if the Carona Virus takes a foothold in Japan.
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Old 02-17-2020, 01:10 PM
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Originally Posted by captjns View Post
Highly doubtful if the Carona Virus takes a foothold in Japan.
You donít get it. Itís not that it directly takes a foothold, it is the strangulation going on in the Asian economies and perception of a threat. If you arenít over here right now, you have no ability to gauge the extent of it. Airlines flying around empty. People wearing masks, in most of Asia, especially the Chinese ancestry. Shops closed, streets empty, restaurants and bars have a much decreased business clientele. This is just beginning to have a direct Asian impact outside of China but when all the automakers and electronics and household goods manufacturers realise their Chinese made parts are no longer coming, ships are bypassing China and the coronavirus is still killing a 100+ per day it is having a Global impact. Apple just announced huge revenue shortfalls, wait until the rest of these International behemoths finally spill their beans.
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Old 02-17-2020, 01:41 PM
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Originally Posted by EXPAT1 View Post
You don’t get it. It’s not that it directly takes a foothold, it is the strangulation going on in the Asian economies and perception of a threat. If you aren’t over here right now, you have no ability to gauge the extent of it. Airlines flying around empty. People wearing masks, in most of Asia, especially the Chinese ancestry. Shops closed, streets empty, restaurants and bars have a much decreased business clientele. This is just beginning to have a direct Asian impact outside of China but when all the automakers and electronics and household goods manufacturers realise their Chinese made parts are no longer coming, ships are bypassing China and the coronavirus is still killing a 100+ per day it is having a Global impact. Apple just announced huge revenue shortfalls, wait until the rest of these International behemoths finally spill their beans.
SOOO well said. I am shocked at the amount of people who just don't get this.

Lets look just at the auto manufacturing you cite. China produces 9 times the amount of its closest competitor India in steel. China produced something like 928 million metric tons of steel in 2019. India produced a little over 100 million metric tons. My understanding is that has all come to a complete stop. What is that going to do to auto manufactures, or airplane manufacturers.

And that death toll? Utter poppycock! No one can get into a hospital in some of the larger Chinese provinces. So while they claim today there are only 1700 or so deaths, those are what is known. There is over 500 million in quarantine at home. The Chinese have put piles of dirt outside of some of these quarantine buildings to keep people from getting out. How is that going to impact the worker base in China? There could be 10s of thousands dead for all we know since we have no way to account for those locked in high rise buildings that they can't get out of. Some of those could have died from starvation at this point. What is that loss of worker base going to do to the economy's of the world? No one trained to build electronics like the apple Iphone or other China based cell phone manufacturers.

How about our debt to China? Their economy is trashed. Lots of people lost money in the China stock market. Those people are going to be looking to recover debts quickly to make up the losses. Not sure how they do that but with all that we owe China, it's going to impact our roaring economy. There are going to be job losses here in the states without the Chinese engine that drives our economy. So when those products are not being produced any more, we see a rise in costs in what is available. When that runs out we see people being put out of work (why have a sales person when you have nothing to sell, or a pilot when no one wants to fly). So then that impacts our economy here in the states. Huge crash in our economy. Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together (unless they are in China, den dey dinner), mass hysteria!
This has the potential to be bad all around.
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Old 02-17-2020, 01:51 PM
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Originally Posted by EXPAT1 View Post
Donít gloat too much yet Dominican as all of Asia is way down. The 300+ Positively tested victims in Japan wonít help matters much. How many people in Japan now routinely avoid going outside and always wear masks when going out? This thing has potential to drastically effect Japanís air travel demand, also Asia and perhaps the entire world also, so donít sound so exuberant in the Expat pilot communityís demise in China. It very well could be knocking on Japanís doors.
Gloating! What on earth about my post makes you say that I was gloating.

I've been here through SARS, The Global Economy Collaps, Followed by JAL's bankruptcy and the nationalists movement, the Labour Secretary that was hell bent into getting rid of all foreign pilots, the earthquake and tsunami followed by the Fukushima disaster, so if you think for one second that I give a 5 gallon bucket of camels urine being without a contract tomorrow, you're sadly mistaken.

But just to ease your mind a little, this is much of nothing! How many people are killed by influenza each year in the US? It is mostly about politics, our loads are nowhere near as low as we saw during SARS and just like that time, as soon as temperatures hit consistantly above 20c, this will go away.

Then you prophets of doom can look for the next "End of the world" scenario.

I've been told so many times over these last 13 years that this contract was coming to an end that now I'm actually looking forward to it.
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Old 02-17-2020, 02:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Av8tr1 View Post
SOOO well said. I am shocked at the amount of people who just don't get this.

Lets look just at the auto manufacturing you cite. China produces 9 times the amount of its closest competitor India in steel. China produced something like 928 million metric tons of steel in 2019. India produced a little over 100 million metric tons. My understanding is that has all come to a complete stop. What is that going to do to auto manufactures, or airplane manufacturers.

And that death toll? Utter poppycock! No one can get into a hospital in some of the larger Chinese provinces. So while they claim today there are only 1700 or so deaths, those are what is known. There is over 500 million in quarantine at home. The Chinese have put piles of dirt outside of some of these quarantine buildings to keep people from getting out. How is that going to impact the worker base in China? There could be 10s of thousands dead for all we know since we have no way to account for those locked in high rise buildings that they can't get out of. Some of those could have died from starvation at this point. What is that loss of worker base going to do to the economy's of the world? No one trained to build electronics like the apple Iphone or other China based cell phone manufacturers.

How about our debt to China? Their economy is trashed. Lots of people lost money in the China stock market. Those people are going to be looking to recover debts quickly to make up the losses. Not sure how they do that but with all that we owe China, it's going to impact our roaring economy. There are going to be job losses here in the states without the Chinese engine that drives our economy. So when those products are not being produced any more, we see a rise in costs in what is available. When that runs out we see people being put out of work (why have a sales person when you have nothing to sell, or a pilot when no one wants to fly). So then that impacts our economy here in the states. Huge crash in our economy. Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together (unless they are in China, den dey dinner), mass hysteria!
This has the potential to be bad all around.
Yeah, yeah, yeah!

I've been hearing the "end of China" and "the bubble will burst" for two decades now, on the mean time they keep building infrastructure like nowhere else in the world and keep spending on R&D just shy of what the US is spending, well on the way on their space program to land a manned mission on the moon on the next few years!

But good luck with your theory
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