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Old 02-17-2020, 02:22 PM   #11  
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Yeah, yeah, yeah!

I've been hearing the "end of China" and "the bubble will burst" for two decades now, on the mean time they keep building infrastructure like nowhere else in the world and keep spending on R&D just shy of what the US is spending, well on the way on their space program to land a manned mission on the moon on the next few years!

But good luck with your theory
I'm not saying this is the end of China. I think they will survive this. As will nearly everyone else. In the meantime economies around the world are going to take HUGE hits, ours included. How much as been lost out of the Chinese stock market? A 3 or 4 month hit to the pipeline will damage a lot of businesses and people. But you're right once late spring hits this should all go away till next winter, hopefully by then we have a vaccine.
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Old 02-18-2020, 07:30 AM   #12  
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Highly doubtful if the Carona Virus takes a foothold in Japan.
Hope your right. I just found out my friends work place in Tokyo has been shut down, one person tested positive, that person had been coming to work for several days prior with a very high fever.
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Old 02-18-2020, 02:58 PM   #13  
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The Corona "Stink Bug" isn't going to wipe-out the world but it is going to cause a hit to the "Global" economy in the short term... Think the USA governments actions speak much louder than words... After the first cases arrived into the USA and the CDC got a good look at it they promptly "closed" the door to inbound traffic from China...

The Japanese Handling has been soooo much in true J-fashion... Lots of fluff but no real beef... Lets look at the Japan -China traffic, tonnes of seats too and from... Albeit many empty but still free access... Diamond Princess today 542 hot out of 3700+, 88 hot yesterday but they are going to let people off the boat into the general populous today??? What are they thinking??? The crew who have been serving those in their cabins have tested "hot" and they are in common area living??? Japan will be the next "Hot Spot" with a 1000's of cases in the Tokyo metro area due to the high concentration and mass transit by the end of March... Hope I am wrong but just lookin at the way it's rolling that's what I see comin... J economy on the edge of recession will probably slide there with the Stink push... Will be interesting in the what happens with the 2020 games...

I am not forecasting total Doom for J-land... As with Dom I was here during the 2011 deal in Tohoku, in Sendai so have seen the J's drive on where as in the USA Companies would have cut their losses... However I do believe the Stink is going to Hit the Global economy due to the Supply chain and Japan is going to take a BIG hit due to mismanagement of the ABE admin...

Just my 10 yen...

Kampai
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Old 02-18-2020, 04:53 PM   #14  
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You donít get it. Itís not that it directly takes a foothold, it is the strangulation going on in the Asian economies and perception of a threat. If you arenít over here right now, you have no ability to gauge the extent of it. Airlines flying around empty. People wearing masks, in most of Asia, especially the Chinese ancestry. Shops closed, streets empty, restaurants and bars have a much decreased business clientele. This is just beginning to have a direct Asian impact outside of China but when all the automakers and electronics and household goods manufacturers realise their Chinese made parts are no longer coming, ships are bypassing China and the coronavirus is still killing a 100+ per day it is having a Global impact. Apple just announced huge revenue shortfalls, wait until the rest of these International behemoths finally spill their beans.
Thanks for the unnecessary lecture. Itís obvious to the casual observer, not living in China, Japan, or all of Asia for that matter that the Carona Virus will, and I do say again, will have a devastating outcome on world health, and the economy, if a miracle vaccine is not developed.
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Old 02-19-2020, 02:38 AM   #15  
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We shall see, but the only constant about the "Prophets of doom" is that their predictions never materialize, I've heard the devastation of the economy story way too many times before, just like with every other catastrophe that has happened around here over the years, 6 months down the line and nobody is talking about it! That's the exact thing that will happen to the latest media fueled end of the world super pandemic.
influenza killed 80,000 in the US in 2018, Why isn't this being targeted as the end of the world economy super pandemic? It's not in China, that's it, all political fuel... It's definitely something to be cautious about and the health organizations need to address it, I'm not trying to minimize it, but "The doom of the economy event" a little dramatic in my view!

You can come back in the summer of 2020 and make fun of me if you like, but I have a feeling that the laser pointer would have moved on to the next "The world is coming to an end" scenario by then.
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Old 03-03-2020, 11:58 PM   #16  
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We shall see, but the only constant about the "Prophets of doom. You can come back in the summer of 2020 and make fun of me if you like, but I have a feeling that the laser pointer would have moved on to the next "The world is coming to an end" scenario by then.
Nobody thinks the world is ending but perhaps more and more aviation jobs. Cathay Pacific has 50% of its fleet on the ramp in Hong Kong along with 90% of the Hong Kong Airlines fleet. Hainan is bankrupt. Korean air carriers have cutback 50% and now Europe has cut back about 25-50% as their domestic air travel demand plummets. I am sure Japan is doing just fine though as you have been through many downturns. https://www.flightglobal.com/network...137033.article
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Old 03-04-2020, 02:46 AM   #17  
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Nobody thinks the world is ending but perhaps more and more aviation jobs. Cathay Pacific has 50% of its fleet on the ramp in Hong Kong along with 90% of the Hong Kong Airlines fleet. Hainan is bankrupt. Korean air carriers have cutback 50% and now Europe has cut back about 25-50% as their domestic air travel demand plummets. I am sure Japan is doing just fine though as you have been through many downturns. https://www.flightglobal.com/network...137033.article
I'm not minimizing the impact, most of the reduction in capacity you see now also happened during SARS and a couple of months later nobody was even mentioning the name SARS.
Same thing during the Fukushima disaster, capacity was cut down here dramatically, but the collapse of the Japanese economy and the devalue of the Yen that all experts were predicting never materialized.

And that is my point, all this reduction in capacity will stop just as fast as it started, the Chinese are at the starting line just waiting to travel again as soon as the media fueled panic dies down.
This is just a momentary thing not a catalyst of things to come, I believe that come summertime nobody will be talking about this!
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Old 03-21-2020, 09:41 AM   #18  
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Gloating! What on earth about my post makes you say that I was gloating.

I've been here through SARS, The Global Economy Collaps, Followed by JAL's bankruptcy and the nationalists movement, the Labour Secretary that was hell bent into getting rid of all foreign pilots, the earthquake and tsunami followed by the Fukushima disaster, so if you think for one second that I give a 5 gallon bucket of camels urine being without a contract tomorrow, you're sadly mistaken.

But just to ease your mind a little, this is much of nothing! How many people are killed by influenza each year in the US? It is mostly about politics, our loads are nowhere near as low as we saw during SARS and just like that time, as soon as temperatures hit consistantly above 20c, this will go away.

Then you prophets of doom can look for the next "End of the world" scenario.

I've been told so many times over these last 13 years that this contract was coming to an end that now I'm actually looking forward to it.
Well, this post didn't age too well.
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Old 03-21-2020, 11:38 AM   #19  
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Well, this post didn't age too well.
Then there are the "Pilot Hiring Boom Forever" posts....
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Old 03-21-2020, 04:05 PM   #20  
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Well, this post didn't age too well.
I posted that 2 weeks ago! Let's revisit in a few months
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