Av8tr1

I'm not saying this is the end of China. I think they will survive this. As will nearly everyone else. In the meantime economies around the world are going to take HUGE hits, ours included. How much as been lost out of the Chinese stock market? A 3 or 4 month hit to the pipeline will damage a lot of businesses and people. But you're right once late spring hits this should all go away till next winter, hopefully by then we have a vaccine.

trip

Hope your right. I just found out my friends work place in Tokyo has been shut down, one person tested positive, that person had been coming to work for several days prior with a very high fever.

jpncrjdriver

The Corona "Stink Bug" isn't going to wipe-out the world but it is going to cause a hit to the "Global" economy in the short term... Think the USA governments actions speak much louder than words... After the first cases arrived into the USA and the CDC got a good look at it they promptly "closed" the door to inbound traffic from China...

The Japanese Handling has been soooo much in true J-fashion... Lots of fluff but no real beef... Lets look at the Japan -China traffic, tonnes of seats too and from... Albeit many empty but still free access... Diamond Princess today 542 hot out of 3700+, 88 hot yesterday but they are going to let people off the boat into the general populous today??? What are they thinking??? The crew who have been serving those in their cabins have tested "hot" and they are in common area living??? Japan will be the next "Hot Spot" with a 1000's of cases in the Tokyo metro area due to the high concentration and mass transit by the end of March... Hope I am wrong but just lookin at the way it's rolling that's what I see comin... J economy on the edge of recession will probably slide there with the Stink push... Will be interesting in the what happens with the 2020 games...

I am not forecasting total Doom for J-land... As with Dom I was here during the 2011 deal in Tohoku, in Sendai so have seen the J's drive on where as in the USA Companies would have cut their losses... However I do believe the Stink is going to Hit the Global economy due to the Supply chain and Japan is going to take a BIG hit due to mismanagement of the ABE admin...

Just my 10 yen...

Kampai

captjns

Thanks for the unnecessary lecture. It’s obvious to the casual observer, not living in China, Japan, or all of Asia for that matter that the Carona Virus will, and I do say again, will have a devastating outcome on world health, and the economy, if a miracle vaccine is not developed.

The Dominican

We shall see, but the only constant about the "Prophets of doom" is that their predictions never materialize, I've heard the devastation of the economy story way too many times before, just like with every other catastrophe that has happened around here over the years, 6 months down the line and nobody is talking about it! That's the exact thing that will happen to the latest media fueled end of the world super pandemic.
influenza killed 80,000 in the US in 2018, Why isn't this being targeted as the end of the world economy super pandemic? It's not in China, that's it, all political fuel... It's definitely something to be cautious about and the health organizations need to address it, I'm not trying to minimize it, but "The doom of the economy event" a little dramatic in my view!

You can come back in the summer of 2020 and make fun of me if you like, but I have a feeling that the laser pointer would have moved on to the next "The world is coming to an end" scenario by then.

EXPAT1

Nobody thinks the world is ending but perhaps more and more aviation jobs. Cathay Pacific has 50% of its fleet on the ramp in Hong Kong along with 90% of the Hong Kong Airlines fleet. Hainan is bankrupt. Korean air carriers have cutback 50% and now Europe has cut back about 25-50% as their domestic air travel demand plummets. I am sure Japan is doing just fine though as you have been through many downturns. https://www.flightglobal.com/network...137033.article

The Dominican

I'm not minimizing the impact, most of the reduction in capacity you see now also happened during SARS and a couple of months later nobody was even mentioning the name SARS.
Same thing during the Fukushima disaster, capacity was cut down here dramatically, but the collapse of the Japanese economy and the devalue of the Yen that all experts were predicting never materialized.

And that is my point, all this reduction in capacity will stop just as fast as it started, the Chinese are at the starting line just waiting to travel again as soon as the media fueled panic dies down.
This is just a momentary thing not a catalyst of things to come, I believe that come summertime nobody will be talking about this!

Turbosina

Well, this post didn't age too well.

AgentSmith

Then there are the "Pilot Hiring Boom Forever" posts....

The Dominican

I posted that 2 weeks ago! Let's revisit in a few months