Beernuts

Just wondering, as a new hire, is there anyone who's crunched the numbers to forecast as to how many will be retiring in the future. Or maybe average age of NJA pilots, if that's even published/released anywhere. Just to see how pilot force will change/affect upgrades and seniority over the years.

Thanks

NJA Capt

This is better addressed on the IBT website/message board.

There are pilot demographics on the website, as well as the number of older pilots. This much I will say, the majority of senior pilots are younger guys. The guys more likely to retire were hired in the last 2 years. Large numbers of retirements are not likely to happen for another 20+ years.

jtf560

Most thought there would be somewhere over 100, maybe 200 or so after the final bonus payout at the beginning of the year. That didn't happen. Maybe 25 or so captains have left in 2007. You can work as long as you can keep your medical and at 10 years you get 3 weeks off in a row 4 times a year, plus another 12 days of sick time per year. The guys are finally making some good money and they aren't going anywhere until they are good and ready. We've got a lot of retired airline guys who you wouldn't think would be around all that long, but many of them probably lost their pensions and will have to stick around longer that they wish. The demographics on the union board are pretty old and hard to make an accurate assessment of how old the pilot group is in general since it hasn't been updated in some time. But even with what is there, it is obvious that there are a lot of senior guys with a long time left to work. Attrition isn't going to move people up very quickly here. Growth is going to have to be the name of the game, but at least the company is growing like crazy with no plans of stopping in sight, not that things can't change in aviation.

Beernuts

Thanks all, not on the property yet, so I don't have access the IBT site. But just trying to make some informed decisions.

Cocktail napkin math here, I figure the billion dollar plane order, somewhere around 150 planes, and a current pilot to plane ratio of about 5 to 1, that's another 750 pilots. Not including retirements of pilots or planes, that's quite a bit of seniority right there. I'd welcome anyone's more informed numbers though . . .

correcting

It's impossible to forecast retirements at Netjets because we have no mandatory retirement age. As long as you can hold a first class medical, you can keep your job. But I swear, some dudes don't know when to quit. There are some old cats here that won't quit until they're dragged out of the plane on a stretcher. 70+ years old. God bless 'em for keeping on, because this is hard work for a person half their age.

jtf560

There are actually hundreds of airplanes on order. Nobody can say for certain where the ceiling is as far as pilot numbers at NJA, but most believe it to be at least 5000 (around 2700 currently on the list). The main man Santulli recently said that the only thing that can hold things down is infrastructure- enough room on ramps, enough FBOs, enough quality pilots and mechanics, etc. He claims the demand is there, but the infrastructure must continue to grow fast enough for us continue the fast pace.