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Originally Posted by ColdWhiskey
(Post 2500461)
Can'tStayAway has got it right. They have been promising explosive growth since 2015. It just hasn't happened yet. It keeps getting pushed back. Will it happen in 2019? Maybe, maybe not.
Yes, there are new deliveries. But an equal number of lease returns have been leaving. Each time that happens, the company pockets approximately $20 million (the difference between what the company buys the aircraft for and what it sells it to a leasing company for). It then leases the new aircraft with rates that have to reflect the higher price. Franke and Biffle are promising big growth and fast upgrades at the same time they are dragging out a new contract absolutely as long as they can. Somehow the growth just keeps getting pushed back, and the contract never happens. Come with your eyes wide open. |
Originally Posted by ColdWhiskey
(Post 2500461)
Can'tStayAway has got it right. They have been promising explosive growth since 2015. It just hasn't happened yet. It keeps getting pushed back. Will it happen in 2019? Maybe, maybe not.
Yes, there are new deliveries. But an equal number of lease returns have been leaving. Each time that happens, the company pockets approximately $20 million (the difference between what the company buys the aircraft for and what it sells it to a leasing company for). It then leases the new aircraft with rates that have to reflect the higher price. Franke and Biffle are promising big growth and fast upgrades at the same time they are dragging out a new contract absolutely as long as they can. Somehow the growth just keeps getting pushed back, and the contract never happens. Come with your eyes wide open. The growth that the company has been talking about has happened. The airline grows in more ways than fleet numbers. When you replace a 319 with a 150 seats with a 321 with 230 seats, that's significant growth. When you operate 4 additional block hours per day per airplane, that's significant. Just not from your perspective. The fleet only grows a small amount in 2018, about 6, due to a significant number of lease returns. In 2019 the lease returns go way down and the deliveries stay strong. 2019 is a big growth year. I'll go get the numbers again if I have to. |
Block Hours Flown:
2013: 195,000 2014: 223,000 2015: 259,000 2016: 279,000 Consider that these numbers are being flown with larger airplanes. Aircraft Delivery Schedule 2017: 17 2018: 16 2019: 18 2020: 18 2021: 13 134 more airplanes to follow, starting in 2021. Aircraft lease returns: 2018: 13 2019: 2 2020: 3 2021: 1 2022: 4 |
Originally Posted by Aero1900
(Post 2500609)
Block Hours Flown:
2013: 195,000 2014: 223,000 2015: 259,000 2016: 279,000 Consider that these numbers are being flown with larger airplanes. Aircraft Delivery Schedule 2017: 17 2018: 16 2019: 18 2020: 18 2021: 13 134 more airplanes to follow, starting in 2021. Aircraft lease returns: 2018: 13 2019: 2 2020: 3 2021: 1 2022: 4 |
The best way to summarize the future of growth and contract status is that they both will change “sometime” in the future. We have no real clue when. Indigo knows the timeline but they will never share any accurate info with their beloved employees. If present fleet and contract aren’t better than where you are at, you should stay there. Big mistake expecting rapid growth or a new contract anytime soon.
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Originally Posted by Patternholder
(Post 2500648)
Wow....that’s GREAT! How do you and the rest of the folks in the Chief Pilots office plan to hire enough to staff that growth?
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Thanks Aero for taking the time again to post the numbers. I've seen your fleet growth numbers before but not the block hours expectations.
I hope for everyone's sake that contract negotiations don't drag on for years as they have thus far. I realize it's in Indigo's best interest to drag out the inevitable as it shows higher profit each quarter, which equals higher valuation for the company. It's strictly business. When will it happen, who knows, that's anyone's guess.
Originally Posted by Aero1900
(Post 2500609)
Block Hours Flown:
2013: 195,000 2014: 223,000 2015: 259,000 2016: 279,000 Consider that these numbers are being flown with larger airplanes. Aircraft Delivery Schedule 2017: 17 2018: 16 2019: 18 2020: 18 2021: 13 134 more airplanes to follow, starting in 2021. Aircraft lease returns: 2018: 13 2019: 2 2020: 3 2021: 1 2022: 4 |
Originally Posted by Aero1900
(Post 2500574)
I've posted the actual delivery and lease return schedule on this site. I've explained how to find it, so you can see the numbers for your self. It's really not that difficult, just basic addition and subtraction.
The growth that the company has been talking about has happened. The airline grows in more ways than fleet numbers. When you replace a 319 with a 150 seats with a 321 with 230 seats, that's significant growth. When you operate 4 additional block hours per day per airplane, that's significant. Just not from your perspective. The fleet only grows a small amount in 2018, about 6, due to a significant number of lease returns. In 2019 the lease returns go way down and the deliveries stay strong. 2019 is a big growth year. I'll go get the numbers again if I have to. |
Originally Posted by NWSteeringArmer
(Post 2500771)
No one gives a shiiit about that type of growth... some might argue that flying an extra 80 people around for free is the opposite of growth... we have more responsibility and no extra compensation... it’s growth for the company, sure but an extra 80 seats doesn’t put 10 people in an upgrade class... and yes they do utilize the airplanes more, but you may notice as that has happened our, schedules have gotten crappier and crappier... why are you talking about aircraft utilization and seat growth?? Who cares
I agree 100% that we should be compensated for the additional passengers we are carrying. A Frontier A321 holds more people that a United 767 and 787. Frontier is the 2nd most profitable airline in the country. As we replace old A319s with new A320NEOs, our profit margins will rise higher. I guarantee you the company will grow by leaps and bounds. Its a decade long process though. |
Originally Posted by Aero1900
(Post 2500609)
Block Hours Flown:
2013: 195,000 2014: 223,000 2015: 259,000 2016: 279,000 Consider that these numbers are being flown with larger airplanes. Aircraft Delivery Schedule 2017: 17 2018: 16 2019: 18 2020: 18 2021: 13 134 more airplanes to follow, starting in 2021. Aircraft lease returns: 2018: 13 2019: 2 2020: 3 2021: 1 2022: 4 |
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