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Spirit/Frontier Merger (Again)

Old 04-24-2025 | 03:05 PM
  #371  
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Originally Posted by AutoBrksMedium
This to me seems like pure insanity. BB can’t get the company to grow organically, he couldn’t close a merger deal several times, we lose money more often than we make money (at least on paper) and he is the #1 choice for CEO of a combined airline???

A combined airline needs vision of a new way forward, not just a crappy airline that suddenly got bigger overnight.
Mergers are not a free ride. Acquiring Spirit also means taking their debt.

Alaska had no net debt in 2015 before acquiring VX. In fact they had $600M more cash than debt. After the VX acquisition because of the VX debt and the financing used to buy VX, Alaska had a $2.5B negative net debt. A $3B swing to the negative (the effective cost of the merger). Today Alaska still has a $2.4B negative net debt, even though the merger was almost a decade ago. Alaska is arguably in a worse position today than it was in 2015. That was the cost of "preventing Jetblue from buying VX" which in hindsight would have probably just done the same to Jetblue. Jetblue has now dodged two acquisitions that probably would have made it worse off than it is now.
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Old 04-24-2025 | 04:30 PM
  #372  
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Originally Posted by FriendlyPilot
Mergers are not a free ride. Acquiring Spirit also means taking their debt.

Alaska had no net debt in 2015 before acquiring VX. In fact they had $600M more cash than debt. After the VX acquisition because of the VX debt and the financing used to buy VX, Alaska had a $2.5B negative net debt. A $3B swing to the negative (the effective cost of the merger). Today Alaska still has a $2.4B negative net debt, even though the merger was almost a decade ago. Alaska is arguably in a worse position today than it was in 2015. That was the cost of "preventing Jetblue from buying VX" which in hindsight would have probably just done the same to Jetblue. Jetblue has now dodged two acquisitions that probably would have made it worse off than it is now.

point taken, but Alaska and virgin were not fighting for the same tiny market share, of which there is little to expand on as both F9 and NK are finding out. Even the ex CEO of American is confident that these airlines are stronger together than apart even when questioned with “can F9 even make the acquisition”.


and just from a non-biased stance on your argument, this is chatGPTs response:

“Sure, they carry more debt now. But:
  • It’s manageable and has been refinanced at favorable rates.
  • They consistently post solid profits and maintain investment-grade credit ratings.
  • Their balance sheet is far healthier than many peers — including JetBlue or Spirit.
Final Take:

Yes, Alaska took on debt to buy Virgin — but the deal strategically transformed the airline and helped it compete in ways it never could have otherwise. So while the forum post is financially accurate, the overall view that Alaska is “worse off” is short-sighted. Long-term, Alaska is clearly stronger for having made the acquisition.”

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Old 04-24-2025 | 05:59 PM
  #373  
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Originally Posted by 310god
point taken, but Alaska and virgin were not fighting for the same tiny market share, of which there is little to expand on as both F9 and NK are finding out. Even the ex CEO of American is confident that these airlines are stronger together than apart even when questioned with “can F9 even make the acquisition”.


and just from a non-biased stance on your argument, this is chatGPTs response:

“Sure, they carry more debt now. But:
  • It’s manageable and has been refinanced at favorable rates.
  • They consistently post solid profits and maintain investment-grade credit ratings.
  • Their balance sheet is far healthier than many peers — including JetBlue or Spirit.
Final Take:

Yes, Alaska took on debt to buy Virgin — but the deal strategically transformed the airline and helped it compete in ways it never could have otherwise. So while the forum post is financially accurate, the overall view that Alaska is “worse off” is short-sighted. Long-term, Alaska is clearly stronger for having made the acquisition.”
Alaska's balance sheet was always far better than Jetblue etal. Its still better, but worse than it was a decade ago. Not sure that's a big win.

How is Alaska "clearly stronger" while ChatGPT agrees that them being financially worse off is "accurate".
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Old 04-24-2025 | 06:07 PM
  #374  
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Originally Posted by 310god
point taken, but Alaska and virgin were not fighting for the same tiny market share, of which there is little to expand on as both F9 and NK are finding out. Even the ex CEO of American is confident that these airlines are stronger together than apart even when questioned with “can F9 even make the acquisition”.


and just from a non-biased stance on your argument, this is chatGPTs response:

“Sure, they carry more debt now. But:
  • It’s manageable and has been refinanced at favorable rates.
  • They consistently post solid profits and maintain investment-grade credit ratings.
  • Their balance sheet is far healthier than many peers — including JetBlue or Spirit.
Final Take:

Yes, Alaska took on debt to buy Virgin — but the deal strategically transformed the airline and helped it compete in ways it never could have otherwise. So while the forum post is financially accurate, the overall view that Alaska is “worse off” is short-sighted. Long-term, Alaska is clearly stronger for having made the acquisition.”

Is this historical? First APC chatgpt assisted post ever.
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Old 04-24-2025 | 08:20 PM
  #375  
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Originally Posted by bluespoon
Is this historical? First APC chatgpt assisted post ever.
Nah Halon did it all the time in the Spirit threads
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Old 04-25-2025 | 03:52 AM
  #376  
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Originally Posted by FriendlyPilot
Alaska's balance sheet was always far better than Jetblue etal. Its still better, but worse than it was a decade ago. Not sure that's a big win.

How is Alaska "clearly stronger" while ChatGPT agrees that them being financially worse off is "accurate".
Don’t shoot the messenger:

”Great question — and it’s the classic “balance sheet vs. strategy” debate.



You’re absolutely right that Alaska is worse off financially on paper than it was pre-merger (i.e., more debt, less cash cushion). But being stronger doesn’t just mean being richer — it means being more competitive, more resilient, and more strategically positioned in the market.



Here’s how Alaska is stronger post-Virgin America, even with worse financials:









1. Market Expansion





Before the merger:


  • Alaska was mostly locked into the Pacific Northwest (SEA, PDX)
  • Virgin gave them LAX, SFO, JFK, BOS, DCA — premium transcon markets and slots they could never have grown into organically.




Now:

Alaska has true national presence, with hubs and focus cities coast to coast.









2. Competitive Defense




  • Buying Virgin blocked JetBlue from taking over West Coast markets.
  • Had JetBlue won, Alaska would’ve been sandwiched between Delta in SEA and JetBlue in California — basically doomed to shrink or die.




So even though they took on debt, it was defensive and strategic — like paying ransom to avoid being boxed out of the game.









3. Revenue Power




  • Virgin’s routes were higher-yielding (premium cabin transcon, biz travel)
  • Alaska adopted Virgin’s best features: IFE, Wi-Fi, mood lighting, etc., and elevated their product.
  • The merger grew their revenue and helped secure deals like the oneworld alliance, which wouldn’t have happened if they stayed regional.










4. Fleet Growth + Scale




  • They added Airbus aircraft, giving flexibility while they ramped up 737 MAX orders.
  • Greater fleet diversity = stronger resilience during supply chain delays.










5. Brand + Loyalty




  • They grew their Mileage Plan loyalty base by acquiring Virgin’s customers.
  • Their program is now considered one of the most valuable airline loyalty programs in the U.S.










Bottom Line:





Yes, Alaska is worse off financially compared to 2015.

But relative to the rest of the industry, it’s in a much stronger strategic position now.



They traded cash for growth, and it worked. If they hadn’t, they’d probably be a takeover target themselves by now — or steadily shrinking in the shadow of Delta, Southwest, and JetBlue.



Would you rather be debt-free but boxed into SEA, or leveraged but nationwide with alliance power and long-haul routes? That’s the bet they made — and so far, it’s paid off.”
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Old 04-25-2025 | 04:18 AM
  #377  
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Originally Posted by 310god
Don’t shoot the messenger:

”Great question — and it’s the classic “balance sheet vs. strategy” debate.



You’re absolutely right that Alaska is worse off financially on paper than it was pre-merger (i.e., more debt, less cash cushion). But being stronger doesn’t just mean being richer — it means being more competitive, more resilient, and more strategically positioned in the market.



Here’s how Alaska is stronger post-Virgin America, even with worse financials:









1. Market Expansion





Before the merger:
  • Alaska was mostly locked into the Pacific Northwest (SEA, PDX)
  • Virgin gave them LAX, SFO, JFK, BOS, DCA — premium transcon markets and slots they could never have grown into organically.




Now:

Alaska has true national presence, with hubs and focus cities coast to coast.









2. Competitive Defense


  • Buying Virgin blocked JetBlue from taking over West Coast markets.
  • Had JetBlue won, Alaska would’ve been sandwiched between Delta in SEA and JetBlue in California — basically doomed to shrink or die.




So even though they took on debt, it was defensive and strategic — like paying ransom to avoid being boxed out of the game.









3. Revenue Power


  • Virgin’s routes were higher-yielding (premium cabin transcon, biz travel)
  • Alaska adopted Virgin’s best features: IFE, Wi-Fi, mood lighting, etc., and elevated their product.
  • The merger grew their revenue and helped secure deals like the oneworld alliance, which wouldn’t have happened if they stayed regional.










4. Fleet Growth + Scale


  • They added Airbus aircraft, giving flexibility while they ramped up 737 MAX orders.
  • Greater fleet diversity = stronger resilience during supply chain delays.










5. Brand + Loyalty


  • They grew their Mileage Plan loyalty base by acquiring Virgin’s customers.
  • Their program is now considered one of the most valuable airline loyalty programs in the U.S.










Bottom Line:





Yes, Alaska is worse off financially compared to 2015.

But relative to the rest of the industry, it’s in a much stronger strategic position now.



They traded cash for growth, and it worked. If they hadn’t, they’d probably be a takeover target themselves by now — or steadily shrinking in the shadow of Delta, Southwest, and JetBlue.



Would you rather be debt-free but boxed into SEA, or leveraged but nationwide with alliance power and long-haul routes? That’s the bet they made — and so far, it’s paid off.”

dont bother trying to talk reasoning into “friendlypilot”. Ironic name for someone who reaks of a pilot who left spirit for United and has negative things to say about EVERY airline in other forums aside from his precious United. He justifies his choice by the perception of failure in others. Terrible kind of person. Wonder what his profile was prior to changing it in 2024, obviously when he went to UAL.
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Old 04-27-2025 | 06:26 PM
  #378  
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Originally Posted by 310god
Don’t shoot the messenger:

”Great question — and it’s the classic “balance sheet vs. strategy” debate.



You’re absolutely right that Alaska is worse off financially on paper than it was pre-merger (i.e., more debt, less cash cushion). But being stronger doesn’t just mean being richer — it means being more competitive, more resilient, and more strategically positioned in the market.



Here’s how Alaska is stronger post-Virgin America, even with worse financials:









1. Market Expansion





Before the merger:
  • Alaska was mostly locked into the Pacific Northwest (SEA, PDX)
  • Virgin gave them LAX, SFO, JFK, BOS, DCA — premium transcon markets and slots they could never have grown into organically.




Now:

Alaska has true national presence, with hubs and focus cities coast to coast.









2. Competitive Defense


  • Buying Virgin blocked JetBlue from taking over West Coast markets.
  • Had JetBlue won, Alaska would’ve been sandwiched between Delta in SEA and JetBlue in California — basically doomed to shrink or die.




So even though they took on debt, it was defensive and strategic — like paying ransom to avoid being boxed out of the game.









3. Revenue Power


  • Virgin’s routes were higher-yielding (premium cabin transcon, biz travel)
  • Alaska adopted Virgin’s best features: IFE, Wi-Fi, mood lighting, etc., and elevated their product.
  • The merger grew their revenue and helped secure deals like the oneworld alliance, which wouldn’t have happened if they stayed regional.










4. Fleet Growth + Scale


  • They added Airbus aircraft, giving flexibility while they ramped up 737 MAX orders.
  • Greater fleet diversity = stronger resilience during supply chain delays.










5. Brand + Loyalty


  • They grew their Mileage Plan loyalty base by acquiring Virgin’s customers.
  • Their program is now considered one of the most valuable airline loyalty programs in the U.S.










Bottom Line:





Yes, Alaska is worse off financially compared to 2015.

But relative to the rest of the industry, it’s in a much stronger strategic position now.



They traded cash for growth, and it worked. If they hadn’t, they’d probably be a takeover target themselves by now — or steadily shrinking in the shadow of Delta, Southwest, and JetBlue.



Would you rather be debt-free but boxed into SEA, or leveraged but nationwide with alliance power and long-haul routes? That’s the bet they made — and so far, it’s paid off.”
Nice post - but the formatting...
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Old 04-28-2025 | 09:02 AM
  #379  
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Originally Posted by 310god

Bottom Line:

Yes, Alaska is worse off financially compared to 2015...

This is all I was saying. VX had far less debt than anyone AS would acquire today. VX only had a 1% market share nationally and it cost $3B which doesn't really make it a "strategic" acquisition. It was a defensive one to prevent another airline from buying them.
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Old 04-29-2025 | 05:41 AM
  #380  
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Originally Posted by FriendlyPilot
This is all I was saying. VX had far less debt than anyone AS would acquire today. VX only had a 1% market share nationally and it cost $3B which doesn't really make it a "strategic" acquisition. It was a defensive one to prevent another airline from buying them.
Fwiw, it was defensive for sure. For context, VX also came with $600m in cash. I believe that the majority of the VX debt at the time of purchase consisted of Airbus leases (lease payments debt equivalent). The remaining preexisting debt that was held by the OG investors in VX had been converted to equity (stock) for taking the airline public in an IPO (similar to what the Spirit bondholders are currently doing with the listing of shares on the NYSE), setting the stage for the purchase. The Airbus leases and their associated equivalent "debt" are long gone off the ALK balance sheet.

The current status of ALK's balance sheet debt is more a combination of the covid period, Boeing Max aircraft purchases (deposits and financing), the HA acquisition and general overall growth. There was minimal debt in 2015 because the airline was operating older aircraft that were not mortgaged. That was not going to last forever, with or without the VX purchase.

I could be wrong, but this is what I recall.

S
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