2Q 2025 Earnings Call - Aug 5
 

Earnings Call on Aug 5, webcast link: https://ir.flyfrontier.com/

Any predictions?

What will Barry tell us this time ?

we had weather delays and tarried impacts from our sector of patrons. We had ATC delays. We had delays in deliveries from airbus. We didn’t make a profit because of all those things. We have promoted a culture of caring which cost us nothing and we expect it will eventually pay off… lol. Also we expect double digit margins and profitability by the end of the year. lol. Just like we say every quarter. I just signed a contract to be ceo for another couple of years a couple of months ago. So I know I’m not losing my job even though we have continued to not even break even quarter after quarter. Feel free to ask questions while I deflect answers.

This.

Also, add in that "we expect labor contracts to affect 2026 numbers"

I expect

JAX Center's fault for whatever

remain laser focused on [insert whatever]

price / cost is king

"in the end" our model always wins

"Look, let me just say this...." responding to any question

"kudos to the management team" (for doing whatever)

proof is in the pudding / when the chickens roost / you don't know till you know it / etc folksy BS-isms

pilot contract: "just can't comment, I think we are where we need to be" (see above folksy BS)

"absolutely no" pilot shortage / staffing issues

Prediction:

We lost money

we’re doing great.

F9 released revised guidance (May 1st) in conjunction with the 1Q results from a loss of 0.23 per share to 0.37 per share.

On May 20 they reaffirmed that projected loss.

My prediction is said loss will be even worse than what they forecast. Either that or some creative bookkeeping to make it look otherwise.

We’ve got 30 planes arriving this year and next, yet we can’t even fill the ones we have now. Increasing our lease obligations under these conditions feels reckless. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up trying to offload aircraft.

Sale-leaseback only works if you can actually fill the planes and cover the lease payments on the planes you’re taking.

next year 9 returns and we can sell these planes to other carriers we don’t have to do the sale lease back model. We buy the planes cheaper than delta or United do the deal we have is through indigo partners which has the steepest and is the largest airbus purchaser in the world. We can sell these planes that are to be delivered to competitors and make a profit while they purchase the plane cheaper than their original agreement more than likely. Worst comes to worst we can always sell some of these aircraft after taking the delivery.


another thing to note. Just because we have orders even confirmed orders doesn’t mean we will take them. There are fees associated with refusing them but indigo has carriers all over the planet we can sell to those carriers if they’re better positioned.

indigo can string along frontier however they see if. Between the ownership of indigo partners and frontier holdings and BF ownership rights of individual stock. Even though we are labeled as not majority owned by a single entity we very much are.

to keep this concise. The order book doesn’t matter to our future. We don’t have to take all the planes for us to use. In the mean time we are the pawns of the master plan. We are underpaid compared to our peers.


we deserve a full contract equitable to the passengers quantity move and increased risk relative to our peers. if they decide to close shop because we got a fair rate then they’ll have some losses too.

Was thinking about this today, it’s debatably the smartest thing right now. They’ll continue sale lease back to hedge the losses atleast for Q3, Q4, and Q1. They’ll do funny book math to make it look like a ok loss, or good forecast.

This is all in the hopes of the company making a profit Q1, Q2 next year.

It’s really a Hedge against the immediate term losses. That and between selling older planes they’ll do ok….

I think what people need to realize is at the end of the day Frontier is in an OK position as long as indigo is on board… to management it’s not an airline… its a Hedge fund. As long as it continues to work for Indigo we’ll be puttering along. I just hope all the goodwill and brand value isn’t gone before they decide to sell or divest their shares.

They are absolutely ok in continuing the business as usual.

Everything could change overnight if Spirit vanishes.