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By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN ...And consumption is our primary undoing here. World oil production has flattened out @ 85 million bbl/day back in 2005. In other words, we haven't been able to produce any more than that since, despite our best global exploration/production efforts. In the U.S., we consume 21 million bbl/day, that's 1/4 of the world's oil production. We're 5 percent of the world's population. See the problem? I am all for getting us off oil, but that will take time. Short term solution is for the U.S. to show everyone that we are serious about drilling in our most productive areas, polar bears be damned. That would lower prices on the market short term, even if we don't actually increase output right away. |
Originally Posted by Aztec1
(Post 409540)
If only we had this guy for president.:rolleyes:
How can you say we havn't been able to produce more oil, when the Saudis just increased their output by 200,000 more barrels (again) and right now leaders of oil producers are meeting to debate increasing output? Its not that we can't produce more; its because we don't want to. Supply and demand predictions don't work for oil. It is too involved in geopolitics and OPEC's manipulations. We can produce more, but most analysts agree it just won't make much of a difference, not when the majority of our oil is IMPORTED. |
Originally Posted by Blueridger
(Post 409630)
You just answered your own question. WE are not the Saudis. Nor are we Venezuela or any other oil exporting country. The Saudis are essentially a banana republic whose entire GDP is reliant upon oil. Do you really think they would be in a mad rush to drill it all out of the ground? Especially not at today's high prices........
Supply and demand predictions don't work for oil. It is too involved in geopolitics and OPEC's manipulations. We can produce more, but most analysts agree it just won't make much of a difference, not when the majority of our oil is IMPORTED. World oil production has flattened out @ 85 million bbl/day back in 2005. In other words, we haven't |
I flat out don't trust anything coming out of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Here are some of the reasons for my bias: 1.) Saudis have never allowed an independent audit from an outside source in order to determine their proven reserves. This begs the question: If they had significant reserves left, why not allow the audit so as to end all doubt. Yet they have the nerve to blame the current price of oil on speculation, not supply. Do they expect us to just trust them? I'm too much of a cynic, I want an independent audit. They helped raise 17 of the 19 hijackers from 9/11, they also gave us Osama Bin Laden...I have good reason to be suspicious of their claims. 2.) Saudi Arabia's state-run oil company, ARAMCO, has a proven track record of trying to cover things up. They denied for years that they were injecting salt water into the Ghawar reserve in order to supplement pressure for oil production. They've now come clean and admitted to pumping salt water into the Ghawar field (The world's largest oil field). 3.) Aramco has also deliberately over-estimated the size of its reserves. They've intentionally tried to mislead us so we won't have any supply concerns. Saudi Arabia relies on 5 megafields for 90% of its oil production which in turn provides the world w/ 73% of all incremental world demand. They also have 3 times as many rigs on the ground as they did 3 years ago, yet they're not producing any more oil than 3 years ago. Talk to any geologist who know anything about extraction techniques and they'll tell you this is not good news. People are wasting valuable time/energy asking the Saudis to pump more oil...they can't sustain an increase, it will exhaust their limited reserves too quickly, which is the last thing they want. Politicians asking the Saudis to pump more oil only serves to illustrate how little our public figures understand about the current oil crisis. What they do understand is that a pledge to increase production will soothe the voters nerves a bit...it's more psychological than anything else. |
RED Diesel
Originally Posted by greedyairlineexec
(Post 408844)
opening the strategic oil reserves and building refineries with tax payer money, and leasing them to operators will go way further. the minute the US announces we will not buy oil the price will drop dramatically. the minute the US announces we will build refineries and lease them to operators the price will drop even more.
additionally, announcing that we will pour 20 billion a year to make coil-oil and carbon sequestration a reality will drop the oil even further. those 3 announcements done 1 week apart plus a stop to oil speculation by imposing huge limits on margin except for airlines and other real industries will bring oil down to normal levels. All it takes is a few simple announcements. way easier than drilling. way better then to play to the oil companies greed ps: why can't the airlines get the same sweet deal on fuel as farmers do with their "red diesel"? I think the farmers as a grou probably are far better at lobbying than the Airline industry. God forbid we work together for something. No one wants to work together beacuse we are competing. If the Airline industry was subsidized like it used to be then we porbably could |
Originally Posted by iahflyr
(Post 408856)
Consider me as one of the 50% or so Americans who does not support your blanket statement of unlimited drilling within the US.
I am against offshore drilling and I am against drilling in ANWR. If we can get some oil shale out in Wyoming, or crude oil out in other areas in the US without damaging the environment too much, I would be for it (I think most people, including most environmentalists would support that). The real reason why environmentalists don't support drilling has nothing to do with "damaging the environment", because even they know technology makes it very hard to do so. No, environmentalists know that expensive gas will force many people to stop driving SUV's and many other vehicles they don't like. In other words, environmentalists want to dictate what people drive and they will say anything to try and accomplish their goals. |
We haven't learned from the same exercise of the 70's; for those who are old enough to remember high fuel prices, inflation, joblessness and cost of living increase. We were suppose to learn from that and we did to a certain point. More fuel efficient cars and safety features have blinded us into continuing our dependence on oil. The 90's saw a reversal of smaller fuel efficient vehicles replaced with larger less fuel efficient vehicles. The public wanted them and the auto industry was all too happy to make them for us. Now we are facing a similar situation again.... I said again....If we take the politics and the emotions of this out and discuss this in a classroom setting our teacher's would be saying ***, haven't you been paying attention.
The drilling won't deliver any respite from this situation for over a decade, so it's not a quick fix. With the rest of the world ( except those living in oil producing nations like Saudi Arabia & Venezuela) paying much higher fuel prices than the US for decades the US needs to do something. Change policy; lower taxes on fuel; Cut out the oil Speculation; Start drilling; seriously start to use alternative sources of energy, etc. Something! and hopefully having paid attention to what has happened in the pastwe can make the right decision. I sure hope it's not strike 3. |
Blue ridge I gotta know what movie that avatar is from . its funny .
Ok back to thread lol |
Originally Posted by The Duke
(Post 409463)
I'm hearing lots of pretty ideas/theories here about how additional drilling is a solution, but no data. The fundamental question is how is additional drilling, particularly off-shore, going to offset price? How?
Here's what the politicians/analysts on CNN, FOX, MSNBC, etc., aren't telling you. Twenty years ago in this country your average drilling rig/platform was retired by age 25. Today, in the United States, your average rig/platform is 27 years old. So, our rigs our extremely old, even if there was a dramatic amount of oil in the OCS (That's Outer Continental Shelf for those not in oil), we won't be able to produce rigs fast enough to offer up the sort of extraction/production that we need to sustain our consumption here in the U.S. ...And consumption is our primary undoing here. World oil production has flattened out @ 85 million bbl/day back in 2005. In other words, we haven't been able to produce any more than that since, despite our best global exploration/production efforts. In the U.S., we consume 21 million bbl/day, that's 1/4 of the world's oil production. We're 5 percent of the world's population. See the problem? Now here's where it gets real interesting. The politicians should have known better, because a lot of people who were dismissed as kooks years ago told 'em this would happen. But politicians don't take measures to mitigate future problems; They are fundamentally reactionary creatures. This is exactly what's going on right now. McCain, as an example, was always staunchly opposed to offshore drilling by our coasts...now he's running in a presidential election, he's got 4-5 dollar fuel, people are nervous. Now he wants offshore drilling, not because it's the prudent thing to do, but because it gets him votes. And, of course, your average American voter falls for it because their IQ is noticeably on the left side of the bell-curve. So, lets assume, drilling rigs and platforms just magically appear over night. We drill the OCS extensively. This effort will sustain our current oil consumption here in the U.S. for another 10 years, that's it. I'll be 40 years old then...dealing w/ the same problem...again. More drilling, obviously, delays the inevitable. I'd rather we focus on a more comprehensive solution to our energy situation so we don't have to keep re-visiting the same problems over and over again. The analysts on CNN, FOX, MSNBC, and the politicians of course, are so far behind on the energy crisis we're facing, it's not even funny. They're all out to lunch in my view. We will pay for their lack of leadership/initiative. But whats wrong with drilling now to help soften to blow and see where that gets us? Its not like any alternative fuels are going to be developed any sooner than five years. Its going to be ALOT longer than five years to develop an alternative fuel and switch to it. Everyone says, "well it will be at least five years before we see the benefits," well i would rather it be five than twenty years waiting on a viable alt. energy source. |
The drilling won't deliver any respite from this situation for over a decade, so it's not a quick fix. Talking about "alternative fuels" and "what if's" aren't putting cheap gas into fuel tanks at the moment. Truthfully, we should be drilling, innovating, and exploring - all three simultaneously. BTW, we passed an energy bill in 1998 that would have led to more domestic drilling, refining and oil production in the U.S. and thus lower prices. That bill was subsequently vetoed by the president. I can't say who vetoed it because APC doesn't want politics being discussed. |
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