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-   -   What are the odds??? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/hangar-talk/38480-what-odds.html)

Ted Striker 03-25-2009 06:35 AM
What are the odds???
 
  1. Odds of being struck by lightning: 1 in 576,000
  2. Odds of dating a supermodel: 1 in 88,000
  3. Odds of an American home having at least one container of ice cream in the freezer: 9 in 10
  4. Odds of dying from contact with hot tap water: 1 in 5,005,564
  5. Odds of writing a New York Times best seller: 1 in 220
  6. Odds of finding a four-leaf clover on the first try: 1 in 10,000
  7. Odds of being killed by lightning: 1 in 2,320,000
  8. Odds of being murdered: 1 in 18,000
  9. Odds of getting away with murder: 1 in 2
  10. Odds of being attacked by a dog: 1 in 131,890
  11. Odds of dying from a dog bite: 1 in 700,000
  12. Odds of being bitten by a snake, bee or other venomous creature: 1 in 83,930
  13. Odds of dying from contact with a venomous animal or plant: 1 in 3,441,325
  14. Odds of dying from any kind of injury during the next year: 1 in 1,820
  15. Odds of dying from being bitten or struck by mammals (other than dogs or humans): 1 in 4,235,477
  16. Odds of dying from a shark attack: 1 in 300,000,000
  17. Odds of having fraternal twins: 3 in 1,000 (for a woman younger than 20)
  18. Odds of having fraternal twins: 14 in 1,000 (for women ages 35-40)
  19. Odds that a person between the age of 18 and 29 does not read a newspaper regularly: 1 in 3
  20. Odds that an adult does not want to live to age 120 under any circumstances: 2 in 3
  21. Odds of being considered possessed by Satan: 1 in 7,000
  22. Odds that a first marriage will survive without separation or divorce for 15 years: 1 in 1.3
  23. Odds that a celebrity marriage will last a lifetime: 1 in 3
  24. Odds of getting hemorrhoids: 1 in 25
  25. Odds of being born a twin in North America: 1 in 90
  26. Odds of being on plane with a drunken pilot: 1 in 117
  27. Odds of being audited by the IRS: 1 in 175
  28. Odds of having your identity stolen: 1 in 200
  29. Odds of dating a millionaire: 1 in 215
  30. Odds of finding out your child is a genius: 1 in 250
  31. Odds of catching a ball at a major league ballgame: 1 in 563
  32. Odds of becoming a pro athlete: 1 in 22,000
  33. Odds of a person in the military winning the Medal of Honor: 1 in 11,000
  34. Odds of winning an Academy Award: 1 in 11,500
  35. Odds of striking it rich on Antiques Roadshow: 1 in 60,000
  36. Odds of getting a royal flush in poker on first five cards dealt: 1 in 649,740
  37. Odds of becoming a saint: 1 in 20,000,000
  38. Odds of becoming president: 1 in 10,000,000
  39. Odds of a meteor landing on your house: 1 in 182,138,880,000,000
  40. Odds of dying from intentional self-harm: 1 in 9,380
  41. Odds that Earth will experience a catastrophic collision with an asteroid in the next 100 years: 1 in 5,560
  42. Odds of dying in such a collision: 1 in 20,000
  43. Odds of experiencing an earthquake: 1 in 100,000
  44. Odds of dying from exposure to forces of nature (heat, cold, lightning, earthquake, flood): 1 in 225,107
  45. Odds of dying in an airplane accident: 1 in 354,319
  46. Odds of dying from choking on food: 1 in 370,035
  47. Odds of dying in a terrorist attack while visiting a foreign country: 1 in 650,000
  48. Odds of dying in a fireworks accident: 1 in 1,000,000
  49. Odds of dying from overexertion, travel or privation: 1 in 1,428,377
  50. Odds of dying from food poisoning: 1 in 3,000,000
  51. Odds of dying from legal execution: 1 in 3,441,325
  52. Odds of dying from parts falling off an airplane: 1 in 10,000,000
  53. Odds of dying from ignition or melting of nightwear: 1 in 30,589,556
  54. Odds of spotting a UFO today: 1 in 3,000,000
  55. Odds of contracting the human version of mad cow disease: 1 in 40,000,000
  56. Odds of injury from fireworks: 1 in 19,556
  57. Odds of injury from shaving: 1 in 6,585
  58. Odds of injury from using a chain saw: 1 in 4,464
  59. Odds of injury from mowing the lawn: 1 in 3,623
  60. Odds of fatally slipping in bath or shower: 1 in 2,232
  61. Odds of drowning in a bathtub: 1 in 685,000
  62. Odds of being the victim of serious crime in your lifetime: 1 in 20
  63. Odds of dying from a car accident: 1 in 18,585
  64. Odds of dying from any kind of fall: 1 in 20,666
  65. Odds of dying from accidental drowning: 1 in 79,065

Ted Striker 03-25-2009 06:38 AM
I made it past #57 today .. so I like my odds for the rest of the day

CrimsonEclipse 03-25-2009 07:09 AM
Odds of being on plane with a drunken pilot: 1 in 117

:D

That's it?

CE

VAviator 03-25-2009 07:45 AM
Originally Posted by CrimsonEclipse (Post 584698)
Odds of being on plane with a drunken pilot: 1 in 117

:D

That's it?

CE
i might be unemployed right now, but i'm still a pilot, and i'm sitting in a bar at the airport typing this right now waiting for my flight. maybe i'll just order a couple and change those odds...:D

rickair7777 03-25-2009 09:11 AM
Not sure where they get this stuff, #38 is pretty far off...

There are 300,000,000 Americans.

Realistic age range for election 35-75 = 40 year window of opportunity.

40 years / One election every 4 years = 10 opportunities.

At each opportunity, your odds are one in 300,000,000.

300,000,000 / ten opportunities = One in 30,000,000.

hotshot 03-25-2009 09:33 AM
Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 584772)
Not sure where they get this stuff, #38 is pretty far off...

There are 300,000,000 Americans.

Realistic age range for election 35-75 = 40 year window of opportunity.

40 years / One election every 4 years = 10 opportunities.

At each opportunity, your odds are one in 300,000,000.

300,000,000 / ten opportunities = One in 30,000,000.
Does that 300,000,000 million include non-natural born citizens like Arnold Schwarzeneggar (spelled wrong I know :))? If I had to guess I would say maybe 250 million are actually eligible to run.

KC10 FATboy 03-25-2009 12:02 PM
Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 584772)
Not sure where they get this stuff, #38 is pretty far off...

There are 300,000,000 Americans.

Realistic age range for election 35-75 = 40 year window of opportunity.

40 years / One election every 4 years = 10 opportunities.

At each opportunity, your odds are one in 300,000,000.

300,000,000 / ten opportunities = One in 30,000,000.
At first glace, I agree with you. But then you might have to throw out people in jail, criminal records, natural born (don't go there), etc.

rickair7777 03-25-2009 12:31 PM
Originally Posted by KC10 FATboy (Post 584857)
At first glace, I agree with you. But then you might have to throw out people in jail, criminal records, natural born (don't go there), etc.
I certainly hope 2/3 of the population is not made up of excons and immigrants!

Actually they might not be that far off, I assumed that you would be competing with all 300,000,000 residents at each election....but a large part of the populace would be under the age of 35 and ineligible. It might be closer to 1 in 15-20M, depending on demographics.

KC10 FATboy 03-25-2009 05:04 PM
Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 584883)
I certainly hope 2/3 of the population is not made up of excons and immigrants!

Actually they might not be that far off, I assumed that you would be competing with all 300,000,000 residents at each election....but a large part of the populace would be under the age of 35 and ineligible. It might be closer to 1 in 15-20M, depending on demographics.
Maybe they excluded women since they haven't produced a President yet?

Also, maybe the figures were based on lowered populations back when we won our independence.

But I agree with you, many of those odds seem way off. But that is the power of statistics. We have no idea what they based their data on and so, they can say just about anything.

rickair7777 03-25-2009 06:39 PM
Originally Posted by KC10 FATboy (Post 585057)
Maybe they excluded women since they haven't produced a President yet?
I wasn't going to say it... :rolleyes:


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