is there ever gonna be a pilot shortage
 

With the projected retirements, flight schools closing doors and the 1500 TT rule in place. Will this ever happen?

Maybe. If they allow the MPL, nope.

My guess is yes, but the current surplus of furloughed and collapsed airline pilots has to dry up first so it could be another 5-10 years before the effects are felt. This projection includes the effect of another legacy collapsing and putting another 5000 to 8000 pilots on the street and the subsequent negative impact on their feeder airlines.

While some will interject that it's not a "pilot shortage", just a shortage of pilots willing to work for $20,000/year, the results are the same.

The post-Colgan hearing changes will have an interesting effect on MPL.

I know, and that is a good thing. Liability is a interesting animal. It will be interesting to see if they will be able to attach liability to CAL for that too. If they do and if it hits a certain level the way we see this industry will change.

Agreed. It's a game changer. While the ATA/RAA and other business interests (i.e., pilot factories) have already watered down the proposed changes, it seems that MPL, for now, will be dead in the water. Maybe in 10-15 years it will change back.

Yelling and colors doesn't make a point of view true. The POV stands by its own merits.

Ok, so what have YOU done to help the profession? I see you fly a Saab... Are you a regional airline pilot? Did you accept a food stamp salary as an F/O when you started?

No.... with the flood of pilots over the past 15 years and the lowering of hiring standards, as well as automation of airplanes, it's become the new Bus Driver job.. and there has been a lot more applicants to drive a bus than there are jobs for a long time.. Give up now, while you're young and go to law school.

Of course there is and always will be a pilot shortage. Just ask Kit Darby. He has made a nice career by crying wolf.

The law profession is also going though a rationalization as well.

It never will be like driving a bus. Do not sell yourself short. I do not think I bus driver could land nor take off a jet on a clear day with everything working much less do it on a cruddy day with a major or minor malfunction. What we do is a profession. It takes brains and skills. Skills that are not easily taught. Like a lawyer or surgeon, it is easy to put on the lab coat and preform the everyday procedures, but it takes time and honing of those skills and hand eye coordination to perfect it.

Only for those companies at the bottom of the employment food chain that don't pay a fair wage...

No
 

Even he has stopped crying wolf: Aviation Information Resources, Inc. Ceases Operations

The only place there might be a shortage is the regionals (sub-standard QOL for sub-standard pay).

Everyone is always telling me about how the retirement perfect storm is shaping up, and I simply ignore it all. When the hiring at the majors does start again, it will still be ultra-competitive. Take a look at the regional growth and the resulting pool of experience that the majors will have to pick from.

Then, consider that the majors have only been outsourcing more, not less, work to the regionals. What's to stop them when all of their pilots retire, if so many are willing to go to work for their regional feeders?

Finally, take a look at our beloved government that, in one way or another, is always willing to step in and "rescue" the industry with one regulation or another to keep the shortage at bay (age 65, MPL, etc.).

There will never be a pilot shortage for the majors, nor any other truly "career-level" jobs.

Nope. There will never be a shortage of pilots.

Whether or not there will be a pilot shortage in the coming years depends on so many factors that it is hard to predict. Some of those factors include age 65, the economy (both world and US), FAA proposed duty limitations along with any commuter rules, and possible modification of scope clauses (good or bad).

There certainly is not one now!:( And there will not be one for at least another 3 to 4 years (I think that is optomistic too).

Denny

IMO there will be a shortage whether or not it is going to be 10 years down the road or in 3 years is another matter. Witht he new qual's and the industry down the drain. The minute the furloughed pilots have all been called back and the flow starts again I don't believe that there will be enough pilots with the required quals. I think if they implemented 1500TTat a time where people were learning to fly, Night cargo carriers were still going strong and there was a large demand for aviation then it wouldn't be an issue. As of right now theough nto many people are going to be able to make the mins by flight instructing and other such ways.

Also for all of you who have been saying go do something else with your life...I have three things for you.

1) My dream has always been to be an airline pilot. I think it would be the greatest job in the world. If you do not believe that it is so and You are telling people to go do other things with their life I personally believe that you should jsut pack it in. I am sure that there is some furloughed guy out there who would love to go back to work.

2) For those of us with dreams of being a pro pilot I am not going to let an extremly cynical person who has the job I want tell me that I should not pursue my dream cause its not worht it in the end...I don't see them leaving the profession

3) To reitierate. If you are unhappy with your job some one else out there would probably love to have it. Why not let them.

Keep that optimism, fellow Boilermaker...you're going to need it after a couple years in the industry. Don't allow negativity to bring you down, but at the same time don't allow yourself to be caught naively wearing rose-colored glasses.

Reality has a way of bringing one's dreams crashing back to earth...believe me, I've experienced it first hand.

Yeah I am doing an internship with Alaska right now and It is a definite eye opener but I know what I want to do and I know that I will be able to find a way to do it somehow. whether it is working at Mickey D's and making money to fly or flying right seat in a Caravan. I definitely know about the crashing thing had a plan for the summer and lets jsut say it was like a good movie with a really crappy ending.

True. That's a given. I've yet to hear of a 777 Captain shortage at the legacies. OTOH, some of the crappier cargo carriers flying heavies may run into a pilot shortage if better jobs become available.

If you added "...for long", I'd agree with you 100%. Shortages and surpluses correct themselves over time and, therefore, are always temporary in nature.

Are you one of those pilots that blame new hires for taking a food stamp paying job yet don't say anything to the pilots that actually negotiated that food stamp pay? It's not a new hire problem unless it's a start up without a negotiated contract.

What constitutes a shortage in your mind? Then has there ever been one?

I've been hearing about this coming shortage since I was in high school and have yet to see it. I've seen ups and downs in hiring but never a shortage of pilots.

If you can be happy making 60-70K (Reg. CA) for the top of your career after your education investments, jump in. If you think you will have a good chance of 100K + for the majority of your career, find something else because there's a good chance it will not happen. If you want to fly and can live on 60K and be happy with that for your career then it's a good job I think. Eventually you will have 15 days off/month and make a decent salary (though for what we do and what is put into it, it's not enough IMO).

+1...I can't stand it when those who've been in the profession for years and negotiated and voted on the contracts that put us where we are complain and blame those coming in after them. Whether it's the majors blaming regionals for flying so many RJs at their pay scale or regional guys blaming new hires for accepting crappy wages or getting into this profession to begin with.

Bus Driver
 

For that matter I doubt a pilot could weave a bus in and out of traffic and hit all the stops on the first day either. However give each a little training and they could do each others job just fine.

Skyhigh

The age 65 rule ended the chance of a massive retirement of Vietnam era pilots. So no pilot shortage.

Now there are what 10k pilots on the street? So that will stop any future pilot shortage at least short term.

Plus how fragile our career is so obvious looking at the ash cloud problem. One natural disaster and airlines are loosing money like it is going out of style.

The gradual decline in aviation will match the number of people who want to become pilots. There will be no shortage.

There may actually be a pilot shortage at one point. It won't be at the majors though, it will be again at the regionals. The question is whether or not pilots will be able to capitalize off that shortage. I think management's answer will be first to increase the ease of transition to the mainline. Look at compass, the flow has attracted pilots with 5000+ hrs 121 experience to regional wages.

In other words, with scope relief the regionals have and will reap all the benefits of a pilot shortage. They will still put a whipsaw on lowering mainline salaries.

Have you ever driven a bus?

Give most people training and they can do just about anything.

I hate UND/Purdue/Riddle students that think like this. I have been commuting to short call reserve in EWR for 1.5 years for $35k a year and this guy is going to tell me if I am tired of the job to just quit because he would gladly do my job for 50% less. How about you get out of my career so the big boys can get a decent contract once again. We all love flying too just like you do, only difference is we have gotten over the "honeymoon" stage and see this job for what it really is. You don't even know how to spell, I suggest you work on some remedial spelling skills at Purdue before you start to preach to professionals on what we should be doing. We need to stop hiring guys from these collegiate aviation programs.

Here is a suggestion for you: You are about to get the most worthless degree in the history of mankind, change your major immediately and give yourself a backup chance at a decent career.

Why would you invest the tuition @ Perdue to secure a better job then be willing to work at McDonald's to make extra money to fly?

Don't sell yourself short.

OK I will give it to you...my last point was a little to broad. I would like to point your attention to the first point I made though. I said if you are telling people to go do something other than flying then why don't you lead by example. Also I have known since I was a freshman in High School that when you go to a commuter your pay is going to suck. I knew what i was getting myself into. I still know that my pay is going to suck. Would i like to make more money? yes i would but because people have been going to work for those wages for quite a while I don't see the airlines changing them. Also you could be a moral revolution and tell them to stick it when they offer you a job at 17K a year but they will just wave buh bye and pick the next one. I invite you to start that revolution and I will gladly follow once it starts. I would also like to ask you about your education? I personally have taken two languages, french and hebrew minored in econ and Poly sci. I have been involved in a program that has never glossed over the nasty details of this industry. even though the "Honeymoon" will eventually be over for us all there are those who will always still enjoy what they do and will make the best of it that they can. I am not going to go after you becasue I don't know anything about you. I have spent a lot of time commuting to and from SEA and ORD with commuting pilots and none of them have had an attitude like yours. Yeah they are sore that they don't make 50K a year and they are on reserve but not one person has ever told me that a college degree is worhtless. Do you have a degree? Also not one person has said to get out of aviation because he is a big shot and wants more money...If you really believe that you can get more money from your company by having us not work for them please go ask management and come back and tell us how it went.

No yeah It was more a reference to something that I had read earlier...thought it was on this thread but realized later it was on a different one. I never would actually work at McDonalds.

I have to disagree with you on that one. What is considered "A little training"? I have first hand experience training a real Metro Bus Driver how to fly and believe me you do not want her flying you in an airliner! She couldn't do it nor should she have been pushed through.

This^^^

Puttin' on the foil coach!

Wow. Embarrassing.

Please tell us which colleges the airlines need to start hiring from. Should "we" hire from the university you went to, where spelling is more important than sentence structure?

He is not saying a degree is worthless. He is saying an AVIATION degree is worthless. I realize you have done your research on this career, but untill you are on the other side of that 121 cockpit door please stop trying to Educate those of us that have been in this industry awhile. We all wore those rose colored glasses you currently don. I wish, when I was where you are, I would have listened more closely to those that had gone before me. Take it for what its worth.

I agree.

The only other things I might add for sake of the thread is that in my opinion we are going to eventually see more downward pressure on regional captain salaries as well. Just give it another 7 to 10 years to play out.

The vast majority of new hire airline pilots and pilots that are currently working at a regional will never make it to a major and sit in the left seat during their lifetimes. When age 65 hits in 2 or so more years the majors are going to shrink and continue to outsourse/codeshare/whatever to much lower paid regionals. Again, just my opinion, but I also think the senior legacy pilots are eventually going to sell out further on scope and increase regional seat capacity to something close to 135 seats. Management will dangle a big enough carrot for them in the twilight of their careers and they will take it. In my opinion they will become international, long haul domestic, wide body only operations.

Optimistically, I see only 1 in 5 or maybe 1 in 4 regional pilots ever being able to make it up to the next level. By next level I mean the "level" we all thought we would get to by working hard and paying our dues.

All of this being said, I still love my job. I can survive and support my family on $70K. But then again I only spent a very, very small fraction of what Embry Riddle or Zero-2-Hero Flight School grads pay for their training these days. This is absolutely NOT the career I thought I was signing up for all those years ago, but no career ever is. ;)

I'm not smart enough for law school. I'm just a stupid pilot that learned to fly at my local FBO and was hired with no formal education. Thats why we except these low wages because anyone can do it.