Sky,

I gotta disagree on this. Airliner automation is the 3-D equivalent of cruise control in your car. Saves workload but is a long way from replacing the driver altogether.

It may well happen someday, but not in the working life of anyone who is old enough to read this. The engineering challenges can mostly be solved with existing technology, although the glaring gap is that you need AI to deal with events which cannot be readily predicted in advance (ie bad weather). You can program the plane to turn back at the slightest hint of precip on the radar but that's not very cost-effective is it. Also the required levels redundancy would be cost prohibitive as well...two pilots are a very flexible backup to automation, and can even fly with some gadgets written up.

Not to mention to global infrastructure, political, regulatory, and public perception challenges.

Here is MY reality.... I fly an aircraft designed in the 1960's.... built in the 70s & early 80s...with a splash of technology from the 90s... and we hand fly the poop out of these old girls.

I am new but found this interesting. I know some people would cringe at the idea of being a passenger on an unpiloted aircraft, but I think that is where things are headed. One pilot will be working 2 or more aircraft from the ground at a central base. And they will be mainly responsible for the go/no go decision(praise semi accurate wx prediction) and emergencies when necessary. Everything else will be automated. People might dislike the idea at first but stretching a single pilot over multiple aircraft(and probably paying them less as time goes on) would save money. Fewer pensions, no rest time to really worry about(just call in the other guy a few miles from the base), lower pay. And if we are lucky eventually the whole operation will be outsourced and will be operated by people in what ever the rising power will be in the next ~70 years. The only thing stopping them will be proving they can do it to the FAA and the expense of outfitting their fleets with the needed systems.

And as some people mentioned this will be a VERY long time coming to smaller and regional operations etc. So that will be safe for a while at least.

Can you point out an aircraft in developement that will carry people and not pilots? So what is your timeline for Delta to go pilotless?

That's the problem...chicken vs. egg.

Why is Boeing/Airbus going to design (at vast expense) a pilotless airliner when no regulatory or ground infrastructure exists for that? They wouldn't even know what technical standards to design it to, show me where that is in part 23...

Why and how is the FAA going to devise those rules? Their are already under massive budget pressures just to operate...completing NEXTGEN is going to be a real financial stretch. Where are they going to fund the R&D and lobbying program to move ahead with something like this? Why would they want to? They would be battling congress and the public tooth-and-nail.

How about the ground handling infrastructure at the airports? Local communities are going to cough up hundreds of millions to adapt their airports? What if they don't...their planes will still have pilots! Most citizens would consider that a good financial deal, keep both your money and your pilots.

The big challenge is the ATC infrastructure. NEXTGEN (assuming it ever gets finished) is more automated but is nowhere near automated enough for pilotless airplanes. They would have to start all over on THAT, and who's going to pay for it?

The airline managers are the only folks who really stand to gain by this, and their planning horizon ends at next quarter's earnings call.

Now take everything I said and multiple by that by however many nations there are in the global community. The most potential savings exist on long haul flights (short domestic hops will need more human supervision per flight hour), but you need to get the whole world or at least the high-dollar destinations on board.

The problem is not one of technology, it's one of public (and political) perception, regulatory and ground infrastructure, and the massive up-front cost of implementing such a scheme.

Also from an engineering perspective while the required reliability and redundancy is certainly achievable, the cost/benefit equation is dubious with today's technology. You can only spend so much on the unmanned airliner adding smarter computers, more reliability, and layers of redundancy before you exceed the cost of the pilots! The obvious example is spacecraft...they operate for years reliably with no maintenance, but must be assembled in clean rooms and cost billions per copy.

Not in our lifetimes...

We are already there
 

I think there will be pilots up front for a long time but their decision making authority and ability to impact the flight will continue to reduce to zero. There are no pensions to pay as it is. Pilots are becoming the cheap component of aviation. There is no reason to remove the people up for for the psychological benefit of the passengers. Besides if there are pilots up front there is a built in depository for blame should something go wrong.

The problem with a sole-less job that pays nothing is that the company needs to find people who will do it. When Henry Ford first opened his model T factory they had a hard time filling the assembly line. They went out across the country to hire the best artisans and craftsmen however once they reached the heartless repetition of the assembly line they would promptly quit.

There was no creative outlet or artistry involved in stamping out sheet metal parts and besides that they had a greater value to the outside world as blacksmiths and wheelwrights. Therefore the Ford motor company had to hire people with little to no experience in making things with their hands to find a population group who would be satisfied with mindlessly stamping out parts. To them it was a great accomplishment.

Much is the same today with the airlines. They like to hire 300 hour wonders at the regionals because they don't know any better. They have not had the time to develop the skills and satisfaction from putting together a difficult flight from scratch. They don't know what it is like to go to places unknown, solve problems on their own or to know what it is like to be truly in command.

The only thing holding the experienced pilots was the money. Take that away and they leave. When I was at Horizon Air I was the lowest time guy in my new hire class with 4000 hours. At the time they had a retention rate of 10%. Most quit within 5 years. A year later they started to hire 300 hour wonders even though there were experienced guys in the waiting room. As a result their retention times went up.

300 hour wonders do not get bored or complain. Nor do they have many options when it comes to moving on. The best part is that the plane does not need a life long artisan pilot anymore. Automation, procedure and standardization has integrated the pilot into the computer system. Young people today come well versed in letting the computer do everything and are happy to let it.

Make no mistake automation has taken over the flight deck. Many of you just don't know it or perhaps you are flying 30 year old technology. The point is that we are entering the age where the "pilot is prevented from flying the plane". Maybe not your plane and maybe not yet but it is here none the less and the advent of the 300 hour assembly line made airline pilot is added proof.

Skyhigh

Better than ever
 

Thanks for asking. I am in property management and this is my best year yet. No one here ever wants to talk about real estate. It is fun whenever someone shows an interest. :)

Skyhigh

Point out
 

I would like to point out again that I merely passed along quotes from Bill Voss, the president and CEO of the Flight Safety Foundation. There are not my ideas but the Director of Flight Safety's words.

Of course flight safety is a globally recognized leader on these matters.

Skyhigh

Perhaps you might share some of your experiences in property management?

A description of the job and daily duties for those unfamiliar.

141 University Programs
 

Think about it.

Part 141 schools and the university system is the perfect assembly line for punching out automatons for the airlines. No room for creativity or discovery. Stay on the path. Force fed facts. Regurgitate memory items. Stand in line. We have been heading towards this future for a long time now.

If you want to become an airline pilot it is better not to know what it is like to fly off syllabus. Sully is right but he also is wrong. Experienced lifelong aviators who have built their long careers over many steps before reaching the airlines are leaving the flight deck however overall safety is not.

The airlines do not need to pay for experience anymore. Automation is safer than hand flying. The pride of Airbus is that their planes are (largely) pilot proof. Take away the pay and satisfaction that comes from the sensation of really being in control and there is nothing left to hold the seasoned pilot. Modern aviation needs mindless automatons.

Skyhigh