that explains everything

not true
these numbers dont tell anything, most of new pilots dont want airline career and for the rest you cant really expect that a new pilot takes the first time a good job

 

You are joking right? Actually I shorted the number because I knew some would object to some of the details like you mentioned. It is closer to 80,000 when you add military pilots. Even if you were to cut that number in half it is staggering amount and the odds are slim. Most pilots do want an airline career. Without that in mind the cost of training is silly.

I love flying but not enough to hurt myself over it. Are you suggesting that one needs to be devoted enough to throw all caution and needs into the wind? At some point most will be forced to give in.

SkyHigh

 

60000 careers launched--50% washout before getting their pvt.=30000
30000 Pvt. pilots--50% choose not to/fail to get their inst.=150000
15000 Inst. pilots--25% choose not to/fail to get their comm.=11250
11250 Comm pilots--50% choose not to pursue the airlines=5625
5625 Regional FO's--50% get violated, fail upgrade, or give up=2813
2813 Regional CA's--for 2600 good (SkyHigh said "good" and "airline" in the same sentence?) major airline job openings in a given year.

Remaining 213 try again next year or go to an LCC that works for them.

We can play with numbers.

 

I pull back on my estimates. You are pulling numbers out of the sky. There are over of 30,000 new commercial tickets each year and another 11,000 military pilots made each year. Lets not forget that the better jobs are reducing in number every year. If the mergers happen that some think, we could get down to an estimated 1900 good jobs every year. Try again.

SkyHigh

 

Sky, your numbers keep on changing. You are a real treat man

 

I have a splendid idea, instead of pulling numbers of out dark holes, why dont we get some actual numbers.

Now this data is taken from the Department of Labor website (which is a good place to research about jobs since there is no bias and they do have all the information available to them):

So if we look at these numbers, there are about 22,000 non-airline pilots flying for hire, with around 84,000 who are flying for airlines (which I am assuming means flying Part 121). The department of labor has speculated that commercial pilot jobs as a whole will increase by about 9%-17% through 2014.

So right now there is 106,000 pilots flying for hire, and there is an estimated 609,737 active pilots in the US according to the FAA. So pilots flying for hire only make up around 17% of the total pilots out there. I think that shows that a majority of people who do get ratings, do not plan on going to the airlines or flying for hire.

 

You claim I'm pulling numbers out of the sky, yet you cite your sources just about as well as I did...What's the difference?

NE Pilot, those are good numbers...thank you.

 

SkyHigh
I tell you what i think (but no offense):
you are doing this because you are FO for some regionals (maybe MESA) for many years and you just can get an upgrade so your move now is to bash everyone attempting to start this career at the end of your cyclopical effort to depress people you will stand alone...the only pilot left in usa and finally get your captain upgrade.
tell that Im right

 

Sky High
having said that you are one of my favs.
you put such a big effort in your mission that everytime i read a post fo yours i think: "damn if he put this energy in flying he could be the UA chief pilot now"
keep on doin SH
you remind everyone that the coscience has always 2 sides

 

Dang! I didn't think of that one. My screw up!