Exactly. All the regionals are still filing their classes without issue. However, Republic’s LIFT academy may trade you ratings for a set amount of time at Republic.

“Airline Pilots...Cargo Pilots” sounds like something my grandmother would say. I’ve always thought that both are Airline Pilots...:)

Mainline are not allowed to wear sweat suits.

Sort of. The economic cycle could have a softer landing than last time.

Since the upswing has lasted longer than most or all previous comparable cycles, we may be in a new paradigm. I have no insight into what that might mean, but it might be different than what we expect. Also I think less likely to get a big crash right after a big crash... too many of the same folks are still around and learned the hard way (my grandparents, raised in the depression, were always ready for a downturn).

Also, unless there's a significant reduction in demand for air travel, retirements will drive hiring for the next decade or more.

Except that the people that caused it (Congress and the Federal Reserve) HAVEN'T learned their lessons.

Not a dig at you Rick but the second people start talking about "paradigm shifts" and the old rules not applying it's time to run for the hills. The last time I heard that kind of talk was during the late 90s internet/tech bubble.

I don't pretend to have the answers, and I strongly suspect cycles will still happen, for one reason or another. The timing and magnitude may be different.

The last tech bubble was based on speculation... folks were dumping a lot of money into a lot of ideas which never made a dime. Eventually folks wised up.

The next tech bubble may be coming, but it will be different. This time there are companies making billions, but for the most part what they are selling is discretionary, and even frivolous. If the consumers ever wise up (or get bored with it, or move on to some other fad), there could be a big letdown.

Also there's the problem of sustained revenue. Most of them can't charge a subscription. Traditional advertising has been a weak revenue source in tech, the big bucks is of course big data... and folks might eventually get tired of that too.

It's telling that big tech puts on a very progressive face here at home, but is bending over backwards to accommodate the government of China in their desire for limitations on access, search, etc. They are scared to not have access to that huge market, and any silly progressive ideas, such as human rights, are secondary to that access.

I wouldn’t be so broad with that statement. Not ALL regionals are filling classes. My friend just got offered an extra 10k just to start class earlier than what he originally had planned at a regional because they aren’t filling the classes to capacity.

*agreed. A better way to put it would be some are not filling them as much as they would like or need. Getting behind the hiring curve and not catching up. Still hiring yes but not to capacity or need.

*and washout rates are higher across the board so it’s the number that get off IOE that matters. Even a bottom feeder can fill a class by waving large bonuses around.

I’d say overall the regionals as a whole are treading water and are about even on hiring replacements. I think that will stay true for 1-2 more years. At that point the legacy hiring needs may start to outpace supply of new hires replacing regional pilots.

Maybe they are talking it up so they don't have to invest. If they convince enough young people that it is a good idea to spend $100K in addition to a college education, then their parents will do the investing instead of the aviation company. Get enough people in and then when the market turns, they have a new supply of cheap labor because after you spend all that money how could you possibly change careers?