Hiring outlook...
 

I am about six months from being out of the military and heading into the private sector. Between the over 60 rule and gas prices, it seems most large outfits have put hiring on the back burner and are just trying to stay afloat. As far as I can tell, of the majors only Southwest is actually interviewing and hiring right now. Looks like UPS and FedEx aren't hiring at all. Fractionals may just be out-of-reach for me because of TT.

So considering all of that, in your opinion(s), which operations have the best chance of being in the position to start hiring again come this fall? Any of them? Any rumors that applications are going to be accepted soon? I know no one here has a crystal ball they can look in to and say for certain, but it seems like the industry grapevine is a pretty great source and I am hoping some of you are willing to pass along any information you might have.

I don't think things will get better SOON unless oil prices come down. If the bubble pops, I think we'll quickly get back to where things were before. In fact, the current downturn may end up scaring some folks away, which would reduce the supply side of the equation.

unless oil goes back to $70-$80 a barrel I think this industry is going to be in trouble for a long time.Airlines havent had the time to pass the cost of oil to air tickets fast enough.
If oil doesnt come down ,airlines will have to charge more to fly and a lot of people will just stop flying.
I think is going to take 4 years to be back to normal, by then a lot of pilots will be getting out (65 years old) and airlines will resume their hiring back to levels seen last year.what do you guys think?

What goes up, must come down. Much like the oil supply shocks in the early 70's and 80's.....and 90's for that matter, things will get better.

You must be willing to stick with this industry for the long term.....sooner or later you will make it.

People forget how quickly oil prices can recede - it has happened before, and has happened quickly. The Saudi's state that the optimal price is around $60 per bbl. The speculators are the ones making the most money on this bubble.

Don't people tend to invest in gold and oil when inflation increases???

If fracs are out of your reach due to TT, consider the large glut of pilots on the market who probably have this covered. If you have a choice, I'd try hard to stay in for another two years. Try for something to get more time, possibly something closer to what you want to do out here on the commercial side. Some folks are quoting a 20% capacity cut. That's 12,000 pilots, all who are current/qualified. If you have a job, keep what you got and watch for better times.

Z

Gold mostly for an inflation hedge. The oil runup has been partially a hedge against the falling dollar.

Some investment gurus say the falling dollar is a popped bubble.:eek:

Couldnt agree with you more. I here people say that $4 gas is here to stay. I want to tell them to open up a history book.

As for the hiring. It will pick back up later this year into early next year. As for age 65, which has ****ed me off to no ever loving end, it is only delaying the huge demand there will be for qualified pilots.

The long-haul freight outfits are probably the only ones that will be hiring in the near future unless oil takes a big drop. Competition is also pretty stiff right now with all the layoffs and shutdowns.

I don't think any one can really say what the optimal price of oil is. I think speculators do have much to do with the price rise but a lot is the dollar as well. There isn't much slack in the oil supply chain but I agree with the Saudis that the price is too high. The rise in oil corresponds to how much and how fast the fed cut interest rates to try and stop the damage from the real estate bubble bursting. If they start raising rates I think many people will pull money out of commodities and prices will come down. But, again this is just more speculation.

So what's everyone's opinions on when oil prices will start falling? Some of the people I've talked to think they'll start coming down around the fall when demand for air travel pulls back. The end of the Olympics were also mentioned as having an effect. I, for one, am hoping to heck that they start coming down ASAP. I'm all pruned from sitting in this Comair pool.

Probably once speculation cools off, people take money out of commodities will we see the prices start to recede.

Ron Insana of CNBC fame stated yesterday that his new private equity firm believes the recent run on all commodities is at its' end, and is positioning their clients respectively. He didn't say oil specifically, but he did include it when asked to define "all commodities"

Well I sure hope he's right....but oil just jumped back up to $145 today. Ugh... :mad: