That analyst must also be smoking some really good crack.

 

Scary thing about this guy is he was one of the few people who predicted the crash last Fall, so is he smoking crack or dead on about gold?

Peter Schiff was right

Who knows?

 

Karl Denninger of the Market Ticker just posted 2 articles today that can explain a lot better than I can the situation we are in, and should give you an idea of when the economy (aviation) comes back. Here is the link, just click: Where's My Economic Recovery?

To The States: Should We Talk About Secession?

They are kind of long, but try to read them. There is a lot of things going on the MSM doesn't tell ya'. I never hear about this stuff on the evening news, but I do see it on a lot of different economic oriented web sites. Hope this helps.

 

I guess since this downturn is the worst since the depression of the 30's you want someone pretty old. the fact is you can't look at history and get a clear cut anything. that is really why we're in the first place.
statisticians and brainiacs at Citi,jP morgan, BofA, and Goldman Sachs invented financial products on assumptions from historical models. None of their models had any "what if" concerning conforming mortgages much less all of the suprime melting down. that's why we're here...looking backwards.

i'd say based on the reduction in capacity to levels of post 911, a recovery is 6 years away. that's the closest thing to look at.... that assumes oil never goes to 150 or higher....ASSUME interesting word A$$ U ME.....

 

6 year's MINIMUM! There are so many variables though. We could always have another war, and this economic environment is ripe for waring. If we went to war with China, wouldn't that clear our debt? Plus, it would boost our economy like it did in WW2! Win, win! Oops, there are 1 billion po'ed Chinese soldiers with SKS's coming this way! Quick, hurry, hide! LOL

There are always going to be flying jobs popping up here and there, but I think you will have situations like this happening for sometime:

10,000 apply for 90 factory jobs | courier-journal.com | The Courier-Journal

1 pilot position will draw millions of resumes. Your unemployment check will peter out way before you get another job flying unless you know someone, or have a something the employer is looking for like a type rating in the plane they are flying. That could narrow your chances. So many pilots I know have the mindset that all they can do (or want to do) is fly airplanes. Best bet in this economy, get a job doing anything and keep pumping out resumes. Maybe you will get lucky!

 

I finally gave in and went back to grad school to work on a master's degree. I think anyones' chances of getting a flying job in this market is about the same as those of winning the lottery! If you win your flight job that you want, put a $1 into the lotto today and see if you win that too! LOL Good luck everyone!

 

My macroeconomics teacher said 11 months is the average length of economic downturn. He also said government intervention will delay recovery.... but that second part is likely debatable and well over my head...

 

Well thats good news right? Its been at least that long now.

 

Yea, but he also said "government intervention will delay recovery....". Our government has interviend with close to a trillion dollars, so how much time did that delay our economy?

Join the military if your young enough! I seriously looked into this, but alas I am considered too old now. Story of my life; a day late and a dollar short!

Bleak U.S. job market boosts military recruitment | Reuters

Of course, there might be a ton of competition there too.

 

Things that will keep us from a recovery in the short term:
1. Rising unemployment
2. Loss of industrial base (how many things are really made in USA anymore?)
3. Rising oil prices
4. Devaluing of the dollar
5. Gov't spending which we can't pay back, heathcare, taxes...etc (scares people)
6. People are saving more (need to cut back or recoup from a 30% stock fall, recent job loss or both)