He died last month. Didn't predict that one did he?!?!

My guess is mass hiring should be in full swing 4Q of 2011. Right now all the furloughs are coming back, then regional will start farming the 141 schools and 135 freight guys. It will only take about 1000+ new hires on the Major/National side to see regionals getting desperate. Don't forget all the pilots leaving for overseas flying which will create jobs locally. Guys are not hanging around till 65. When you see other posts on the age 65 retirement schedules it safe to assume 2013 statistics for 2011 and 2014 for 2012 and so on. By 2013-2014 regional airlines will be begging for pilots since the younger generation in not as interested in flying as a career, nor can they afford the cost of training today. I know people have been talking about the shortage for a decade but this time it could be real.

The 8 guys/girls I interviewed with at Eagle, only 3 where 135, 5 where 91/cfis, I would say 4 had multi time that was built to get the 100 me for regional interviews. 50% I would say where 1000-1500ttl, and ABOUT 100 me. Internal recs seemed to be the key.

still many highly qualified guys still on the street. it will take time for the rest to all be hiring out of the CFI pool. Plus there are many high time CFI due the lack of hiring over the years. Many CFI have 2000+ hours. time will shake these guys out. once they are all gone then the puppy mill hiring will began.

its not only about time, many people will shake out due to personality/duis/failed checkrides/etc and we see that now, almost every eagle interview someone goes home first thing. Some people make it easy for them to not want to hire them, and i think they will drop times way before they take them.

I see the following will be hiring. these are aprox figures.

spirit 50
Virgin 150
AA 250 (from eagle)
DL400
uae 700
Asia 1000's
USair soon (expect to be a constant flow)


A few more could really spark some movement at the regional level. My guess is middle of next year most will be hiring. With all this movement and the lack of students in the pipeline airlines will be hard press but to lower the bar. I don't think people understand that financing training is next to impossible today. If you don't come from rich families you could aford the 70k-100k in training cost. My prediction is 1000 regional piolts leave and they may not be able to fill all slots without lowering standars. you will see this happen 3q 4q of this year.

Most already are hiring. And I think the bar is falling fast.

Anyone think any regionals will have to go to street captains? That'll be a real sign of desparation...IMHO

not any time soon, those masses of people hired 06/07 have had 3 years to reach atp mins while on the line.

We probably have 600 at ASA that currently qualify as captain, and all the recent new hires will by the end of the summer (500 hours at ASA). I would think most every other carrier is in close to the same position.