bryris

I am curious what the sentiment is regarding when mass hiring will begin again.

I'm a former Waterskier. I resigned just before the furlough in order to finish solidifying a solid backup career plan. During this last chapter of my life, I toyed with the idea of just staying out of professional aviation altogether, but I'm not sure that I'll be able to do this long term. What I am currently doing pays fairly well, but demands some seriously long hours and I just cannot get my heart into it beyond a level necessary to minimize my chances of getting canned.

That said, I am stuck until early September doing what I am doing. But, I've got over 2,200 hours with over a 1,000 in the EMB-145. I will have not seen the inside of a jet cockpit for nearly three years by then, but have flown over 400 hours since the beginning of 2009 and should be able to hit 50 or 60 for this year up to September.

I'd love to hit the beginning of the next big wave that comes as a result of the retirements resuming.

Thoughts?

Great Cornholio

Age 65 retirements start Dec 2012. So my guess is that hiring will start revving up the 2nd half of 2011. I think by mid 2012 hiring will be in full swing as the majors will hire to replace the 65 yr olds and the regionals will need to hire to replace the guys that the majors hired.

There are a few curveballs that could skew this.

1. How many guys on furlough will take a recall

2. How many guys like you are on the back up plan and may try round 2 in the airline industry

3. I know I should actually read the new rest rules for myself, but I'm lazy. I've had some tell me that the new rest rules may reduce the number of mainline jobs due to the 10 hours block time (so transcon turns are now possible). I have also heard that on the international side they will need more pilots (due to dept times even with 10 hours block allowed the overnights would have to be almost twice as long to get the legal rest. So more pilots would be needed to keep the current schedule running) I still just drive RJ's and have no idea what the current long haul rest rules are. I have heard that the new rules will require more regional pilots due to the fact that it takes the number of legs per day into consideration and that a lot of the pairings that my company currently build would not be legal under the new rules....and trust me we are super short (especially on the left seat) right now.

TheBills

If oil keeps doing what its doing, then hiring could come to a holt, again.

lakehouse

ditto.

atpcliff

Hi!

The majors WILL need more pilots due to the new F/D/R rules. A CAL guy posted a CAL mgmt estimate of I think about 7/8% more pilots. The 121-supplemental/-135 and regionals will need a LOT more guys. Note: -135 rules do not have a due date, but the FAA has said soon after the -121 rules go into effect.

cliff
HSV

clef

The sentiment is that hiring should be going gangbusters by 2012. They say, “Demographics is just history that hasn’t happened yet.” In other words, there WILL be retirements. In order to keep the same number of airplanes flying, the airlines will HAVE to hire. Throw in some growth, and things look pretty darn good.

On the other hand....

Will airlines be able to afford to keep the same number of airplanes flying?

Oil is above $90 a barrel and rising. 2008 saw it spike to $147 a barrel. Many who forecast hiring trends under-appreciate the magnitude of this. If energy prices keep going up, and stay elevated for any length of time, it will surely have an impact on the economy as a whole. There’s another saying, “When the economy coughs, the airlines catch a cold.” So if the macro-economy is reigned in by high energy prices, the transportation sector could be in a lot of trouble. So watch energy prices very closely, that is where the Big Story is.

Worst case scenario is that the retirements are simply absorbed within an oil-starved, shrinking industry. Best case is that we will see a hiring bull market unlike anything since the early 1960’s. Forces that are far stronger than any airline’s Board of Directors, or any FAA rule making bureaucrat, will eventually answer the question. For goodness sakes, let’s all hope oil doesn't get too pricey.

Oh, one more thing. You might also get your hands on the May 2010 issue of Air Transport World magazine, the cover story was “Loosing it’s Luster.” They devoted much of the magazine to hiring trends. They focused on how few people even enter the profession these days. Somewhere in there they featured a study that concluded legacy airlines may eventually run short of qualified applicants. Legacy airlines!

“Prediction is very hard, especially about the future.” -- Yogi Berra

darkroomsource

I wonder if the airlines have ever thought of raising the prices....
Competing to have the lowest prices isn't necessarily the best business practice.
Prices are about the same now as they were 30 years ago. And with inflation, that means they're dirt cheap now.
I wonder if an airlined guaranteed on-time arrival within 1 hour, if they couldn't raise their prices to 15% or even 25% more than anyone else.

Imagine the ad.
We have an extra plane standing by just in case we have troubles...
so, we guarantee you 10 times your money back if we don't get you to your destination on within one hour of the scheduled arrival.

Not only that, we'll throw in an actual meal.

CaptainCarl

You're living in fantasy land mate

Ralph Furley

I think that is about what FEDEX does with out the meal, And only for boxes. I could be wrong though.

HighJuniority

Totally agree. I've heard all the rumors too--both positive and negative--but the numbers don't like... they can't. A huge group of major airline pilots will retire in the next 2, 5, 10 years.

Actually, it seems to me the hiring "boom" has begun already:

• AWAC lowered minimums and is hiring
• SkyWest is hiring into 'Bro and CRJ
• CommutAir is hiring 10 per class... 133 pilots total. Do the math.
• Furloughees are being recalled everywhere
• The FIFA World Cup fortune-telling octopus has been revived and says the hiring boom is coming.