we're losing 5-10 A year... abysmal... Spikes up to 20+ in 2023 and onward

1/3 or so commute.... some from neighbor islands but most from West coast... some as far as Atlanta or New Hampshire

 

It's actually 18 new hires through April 2015. I am sure there will be more hiring next year, albeit not a huge wave again until the NEO's show up in 2017.

 

Not sure I'm buying any huge wave for the 320's. We are parking 767's by 2020 and the 320's will replicate/replace a lot of interisland flying in both island to island as well as west coast to neighbor island direct flying.

The 350's are gone as are any possible new routes to Europe or deep into Asia.

No, I think any boom has already happened between 2009 and 2012

 

Growth from here on out will be slower. The 330 NEOs delivery was stretched out two more years, so while there will be new airplanes they will add growth incrementally as 76s are retired, and as someone else already pointed out, the 321 NEOs will have an impact on interisland flying. That said, they still talk of 1000 pilots someday, and I don't know of anyone who isn't happy at HAL. With 600 guys on the list though, they may have already hired their last captain for many years to come.

 

Add to this dozens of 30 something year old captains, 40 something year old captains in the 150-250 seniority range, and at best a new hire today in their 30's will not see widebody captain for two decades or more.

 

Hard to say...but 12 to 15 years seems like a normal upgrade for legacy carriers, and I think that's as good a guess as any...it'll be every bit of that. The bigger question is what will the company look like 10 or 15 years from now?

 

I don't think they're all as bad as that. We have an unusually young group here, due to the fact that we hired very young and inexperienced pilots back in the 90's.. the same time other's were requiring 1000+ hours of 121 PIC to apply ... when I started class at AA in 2001, the average age was 35, and I was the 2nd youngest at 28.. contrast that with the guy we were hiring back then who were fresh off the south ramp and barely able to hold an ATP..

Add to this the fact that we grew substantially from 2008 thru 2012 and added a lot of younger pilots... The closest thing to us might be DAL or Continental who added a few pilots, but others like AA haven't hired in over a decade and many of their FO's are in their late 40's and early 50's..

No, we're not your daddy's legacy airline... we've got some YOUNG people here..

Upgrade at DAL at some bases is as low as 8 years based on the last info I got from a friend, and some others like USAir are well below 5..

Combined AA/USAir might be more complex but with us only have the one base, we're not quite likely to offer "junior bases" and "Senior bases" like the others.

 

My crystal ball is IFR.

 

At least you have a crystal ball

 

I'm going to go out on a limb... But chasing an upgrade at a Legacy carrier

This ain't the regionals, and things change.... I'm hearing talk of things that may or may not happen 10-15 years from now.. Really.. Have we not learned anything over the previous13 years?

Like someone said.... For the most part everyone is happy at Hawaiian.. ( I could be doing LGA to GSO in a beat up Md 88 instead of long haul international). To each his own, but complaining that our upgrade isn't like an 8 yr upgrade at Delta.... (Which could change at Delta at any time..)

To anyone who feels they were lied to about upgrade times when they signed on at Hawaiian. Trust me, just about every pilot in aviation has the same story. Hell, my last career ( read: non regional six figure$$)job I should have been upgrading at the same time I was getting furloughed..

I'd rather be slinging gear at Hawaiian with our pilot group than sitting in the cockpit of some of these other Legacies with their astronaut ( every flight is a shuttle mission) mentalities.