Latest Pathways Updates
 

Anybody have any info if people are actually moving over to AS via this program? It appears the "flow" might be more of a "trickle?"

"Trickle" would be one description....

Pretty close to 50% of the last few classes at AS have been from QX. Not sure WTF you guys want

I’d have to agree with this.

Isn’t it common for hiring to slow down during the holidays anyway? Also, Alaska hiring isn’t going to be like it is at the larger legacy carriers. It’s a young group and a relatively small airline.

Also there’s nothing stopping anyone from applying directly to other majors.

Not if but when. 17 moved over in October. 5 in December. Roughly 50% of AS classes will be QX pilots. Sure, the numbers aren't like the bigger legacies. We'll see what 2019 brings in the AS hiring numbers....

Discussion beginning at post #16: https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/h...o-after-2.html

So far they've been good at keeping the classes at 50% Qx. Alaska just isn't a big airline and doesnt have a lot of retirements coming up so it will take a while.

^^^this^^^^




Alaska
Mandatory retirements:
2019 - 49
2020 - 55
2021 - 57
2022 - 56
2023 - 50
2024 - 60
2025 - 57
2026 - 52
2027 - 77


Figure half will go military. Add 40 slots per year for the projected 2% annual growth, and still you aren't really talking more than 5-6 flowing a month out of a QX group of ~850. That would give the junior guy about a 12 year wait.

It’s very difficult to project but consider many pilots will leave QX to go to other majors instead of waiting their turn for the pathway. That will help movement some.

My personal thoughts are, keep applying and interviewing at majors including Alaska(if that’s your goal). Don’t make waiting for the pathway your only hope. If the pathway works out before you get hired on with a major then great.

I'd make that, "If you get hired on by a major before the pathway works for you, that's great."

Otherwise I pretty much agree with you.

You don't have to stop looking after you get hired by Alaska

A rate of 50% to be sustained. Unfortunately for QX pilots that is not going to happen. The last few months were an attempt by AG to try and bring some legitimacy to the program after nearly a year of promises. AG’s next move will be 1 or 2 QX pathwayers per class. Keep in mind that the sole reason for Pathways is a recruiting tool. As long as recruits buy in, it will stay that way.

Don’t you think that would be counter productive? IMHO, they will have to strike a delicate balance to keep qualified pilots coming in.

It’s an interesting situation. They’re going to bleed experienced pilots either way. Wouldn’t it be better to attract pilots whose end goal is to fly for Alaska? That way they can keep those pilots for a time and have at least some control over how fast they leave.

If the pathway loses credibility I think they’ll have more difficulty recruiting.

What makes you think this fivebyfive?

[QUOTE=BigfatQ;2719211]What makes you think this fivebyfive?[/QUOTE

Pathways isn’t about AS needing qualified candidates to fill its classes. The shortage hasn’t hit the majors yet. Just a great sales pitch to keep QX staffed. Unfortunately for QX, they just lost half of their most valuable check airman in this first round. Oops! Didn’t see that coming. And with a bunch of new jets on the way. If stringing things out with 1 or 2 per class doesn’t work, AG will pull the plug on Pathways completely.

Describe for me a model where management benefits more than delaying pilot career progression as much as possible. Where they pay out less to fill seats than if they keep regional pilots in the cheap seats as long as possible before resetting their seniority and starting them all over again at the bottom.

Yes, they do have to deal with market forces, but the longer they can delay upgrading young people and the more retired military they can jam in to the system ahead of the 26 year old with 1000 CFI hours and 2000 121 hours, the more money they DON'T have to spend on pilot salary at the very highest pay rates.

All the economic incentives for management are to do no more for their regional guys career progression than they absolutely must.

🙄
Ok, so to clear up confusion, the 2% growth figure isn't necessarily a pilot seniority list number and in fact is often a rasm number or total revenue number.

As to "half go to military," that's so much conjecture. Yup, some hires are former military, but more often those veteran pilots have prior 121 time after accounting for qx pathways candidates.

They could absolutely shut down the pathway. There’s no doubt about it but I think to shut it down or to even slow it down to a trickle won’t bode well for their recruiting strategy.

I agree that filling seats at Alaska isn’t the problem here(I think you implied that). We know that QX wants more CA’s and I’ve heard they also want more intructors/check airman etc. A lack of qualified pilots in the left seat is literally keeping them from flying as much as they would like to. Draining their ranks of qualified CA’s hurts the operation to some extent, at least the way things are now.

My guess here is they’d ideally like to see pilots come to QX, get their time and upgrade, spend a couple of years as CA’s and then move on(pilots are going to be moving on whether they go to AS or another major anyway). If they’re able to retain just enough pilots willing to stay on as CA’s for a stint and to contribute as instructors etc they’ll have what they need to keep the operation running well.

Alaska needs to hire pilots that will stay long enough to upgrade and fly as CA’s also but perhaps not long enough to hit the top of the pay scale. There’s probably a sweet spot agewise in regards to this. I don’t get the impression though that the majors seek to hire only middle aged pilots. They hire a wide range of ages. I don’t think this is as big a concern at the majors. Correct me if I’m wildly innacurate here.

If I were in management I would be seeking to attract young pilots to QX that have a desire to remain on the west coast and see Alaska as a top choice. I would want to be able to control the movement of QX pilots to AS so that there is enough movement to maintain confidence in the pathway yet not at the same time devastate QX by depleting their stock of experienced and productive pilots.

If QX was to shut down the pathway or even slow it down too much, they will lose credibility amongst the young new pilots that they, let’s face it, desperately need to fill the ranks. All of the regionals are fighting to attract young pilots. Shutting down the pathway would be a bad move.

1. The 2% increase in size of the Alaska Pilot group was a "best case" scenario to avoid people quibbling about it. Barring medical issues, I imagine the vast majority of Alaska pilots with more than a few years seniority will stay to retirement, and those retirements would be the only vacancies that would with certainty have to be filled once a certain seniority threshold has been crossed.

2. Historically, retired military have been VERY competitive. But I'd agree, OLDER pilots with experience are nearly equally desirable because, like the retired military, their average pay to fill those seats will be significantly less because if the shorter duration they are at max pay compared to some twenty-five year old who would spend most of their career as a very senior captain. Hiring two retired O-5s (or other similarly qualified 45 year-olds) sequentially is a significant savings over one 25 year old. And what is more, there is a ripple effect. Every extra year that the junior person can be kept at the regional rather than the major saves Alaska money when they do eventually flow. AND THIS RIPPLES DOWN THROUGH THE WHOLE REGIONAL SENIORITY SYSTEM. Slowing down progression by slowing down the flow through injecting as many older pilots as possible in above the flow personnel keeps to a minimum the number of pilots being paid the highest pay rate, and trust me, the financial management people are well aware of this.

Yes, well said.

Fivebyfive called it.

Only 4 pathway pilots are being taken for the month of January out of 3 classes consisting of 12-20 each.

What a sham.

Well, better keep those applications up to date I guess.

Well, crap. I was hoping they would keep to their word (have fun with that in the subsequent comments :D) and keep it close to the 50%, as promised.

By the way, I am not surprised, at all. Not naive, either. Just foolishly optimistic. As stated earlier, keep the applications up to date and hope the phone rings. Best of luck to all

One big problem Horizon is having is that too many upgradeable first officers are bypassing for several reasons. In no particular order: 1) the take-home differential between being relatively senior as a FO compared to a junior Captain on reserve, 2) prevalent abuse by the company to pilots on reserve, 3) a still big question mark as to how management will handle the Paine E175 flying and potential future basing for the E175 & 4) nearly 200 of our pilots, many of which are FOs, sitting in the Pathways pool, with no incentive to risk failing an upgrade to the Q400 which has a bad track record of getting fresh upgrades through this past year. The fact that so many of QX's low-time pilots are young, low experience and flying the E175 with little if any turbo-prop experience, makes their prospect of upgrading into the Q400 highly problematic as they calculate their current position and future moves.

Last month, management put out a teaser that AAG was looking at doing extra flying with our Q400s, but that the feasibility of that potential extra flying would depend entirely on how many FOs decide to upgrade in January and February. Word on the street is that 50 upgradeable FOs are still by-passing for the reasons stated above. Personally, I think the extra flying carrot was just an attempt by management to get FOs off the fence. Management has already stated that the Pathways flow is slowing to a trickle, but I foresee a longer term fix will be needed, such as changing the Pathways program to where they require pilots to successfully upgrade to Captain. Since the union was not involved in setting up the Pathways program, the company is probably free to make any changes they wish to it. I don't know what the individual agreement/contract Pathway participants have signed looks like. Maybe individuals can challenge any changes the company tries to make. Obviously, the program has a major design flaw built into it, from the company's perspective.

Is the just published 16 for January not accurate?

The official email came out late today. I think the first January class awards were known earlier and assumptions were made that there would only be two Pathway pilots in each of the two known AS classes. Of a total number of 48 new hires at AS in January, 16 are coming from Horizon. Horizon is asking check airman to voluntarily delay until later this spring before taking their Pathway AS class slots.

Please tell me nobody is delaying...

Yes, please defer out of the kindness of your hearts so we can continue to let guys and girls with decades less experience get a better seniority number than you :) thaaaanks

Maybe if they awarded a seniority number.

That would only make sense, and will never happen. AS ALPA would not allow.

Maybe they could start at AS, get put on the seniority list, and then stay at QX. If it works for H and Carlos, why not the little people? :rolleyes:

If one looks at the list quite a number of top seniority people are deferring. It is dipping down in the 7 year longevity mark.

From the Flight Deck
 

From the Flight Deck

December 13, 2018

From Carlos: Securing a long-term path for you and our company

When I started at Horizon just over a year ago, there were two primary concerns you shared with me most often. The first was the need to stabilize the operation and ensure the long-term future of Horizon. The second was about creating a path to mainline flying so our pilots could enjoy long-term careers at Air Group.

We have come a long way on both fronts this year. By overhauling our pilot hiring and training programs, we overcame the operational challenges we faced the year prior and have a stronger foundation to attract future talent. We are proud to send our current talented and highly qualified pilots to Alaska through the successful Pathways program. As of now, have transferred 25 pilots, which represents 50% of Alaska hires from October to December, and we’re funding 50% in two of the three January classes.

A year after our recovery, not only have we stabilized the operation, but we are securing our future as the first choice for additional flying for Alaska whenever possible. Alaska has requested that we fly between two and three more Q400 aircraft lines per month through the end of next summer and has increased our E175 flying via increased aircraft utilization. We will also now fly 18 flights out of Paine Field on the E175, five more than originally announced. This is all tremendous news, as this flying will stay within Air Group, which means more lines for the many pilots that have requested to fly more.
To support this flying and protect Horizon’s future, balanced pilot staffing will be essential in the new year. Our goal remains to be the largest single source of pilots for Alaska Airlines. As current pilots move to mainline through Pathways in 2019, including some of our most senior pilots, check airmen and instructors, we’ll stay focused on having a consistent flow of new hires coming in and appropriate training staff levels to support them. Of the remaining 100 pilots Alaska plans to hire by April, we will continue to strive to fund up to the 50%, while also ensuring pilots are in line with the competitive minimums that Alaska currently desires.

50% of two out of three classes in Jan? :confused:

What kind of hokie math is that?

50%*2/3= 33%...

"ensuring pilots are in line with the competitive minimums that Alaska currently desires".

That's new. Sounds like FOs will have to upgrade and get PIC time to me.

50% Oct to Dec... and 50% in 2 of the 3 January classes. So obvious one of those classes is below the 50% mark. I originally read it like you did.

Yep I wouldn’t be surprised if the agreement changes as soon as they realize the list is getting close to FO’s hires in the last 2-3 years. Maybe 1000pic required, which I don’t think is a bad thing

1/7 – 20 AS class slots- 2 Pathways, 18 external.
1/14 – 16 AS class slots- 5 Pathways, 11 external.
1/28 – 12 AS class slots- 9 Pathways, 3 external.


2 / 20 = 10%
5 / 16 = 31%
9 / 12 = 75%

Tricky/deceiving wording on Carlos' part. 5 + 9= 14... 14/28 = 50% when combining those 2 classes :rolleyes: This is like common core math for airline management speak....

Latest list shows

8 QX in Feb 4 class
4 QX in Feb 11 class
6 QX in Feb 19 class
4 QX in Mar 4 class

Word around town is there will be 4 AS classes in March

I read in the Alaska board that there is an Airbus class in April. Any QXers in it?

There is at least one I know of for sure. 1/15 hire.