You can also see accurately where you are in the quarterly system bids. FLICA is updated at the start of each run. I'm around 3000 and I moved up 13 spots from the July list to the September system bid. Overall I have moved up about 75 spots in the 1.5 years I have been here..

I was at EAL for 5 years and knew hundreds of airline pilots in the Reserves over 29 years; I’ve yet to meet a happy one. My mentor, an old UA pilot, couldn’t stop saying how bad UA was in the Ferris years.

GF

That's because the list is expanding behind you, and puts you 15% up the list in an incredibly short period of time.

Or, for those of you keeping score at home, United has to hire 1200 pilots annually WITHOUT shrinking their fleet to have the same seniority gain felt on their list. For anyone paying attention, United stopped hiring while they parked their 747 fleet.

Gaining 10% of seniority annually is amazing in this industry, and it doesn't matter if it comes from expansion or retirements, it's felt the same way when it comes to bidding power.

But that's the kicker. Retirements are guaranteed. How many does jetblue have in the next 10 years? It's less than 200!

At this point a new hire at JB would need the company to grow by 3500 pilots to reach 50% in 10 years. How likely do you think that is? At the same time united and AA both retire over 50% of their list.


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There are no guarantees.

Airlines can, and have, used retirements to shrink seniority lists.

You might not have been in the industry, but United shut down their 737 fleet WHILE retirements were happening and they STILL furloughed 20% of their list in the late 2000's.

Additionally, I think it's likely the airline grows that much, but it's at such a measured rate it's like watching grass grow.

JetBlue has an order book of around 120 airframes. Let's say they all show up on property at 12 year per for 10 years. At 17 pilots per airframe, it's that'll mean around 6000 pilots for 350 airframes in ten years.

Current staffing is a little lower than this, 17 is my assumption under the CBA.

I disagree. I was looking at the crewtrac bid qual list. I believe this is much more real time than our seniority list is. We went above 3500 on the crewtrac bid qual list, then dropped below. Now slightly above many months later.

Averages over many years won't show you the current trend vector.

I disagree with your disagreement. I watch crewtrac weekly. I’ve been watching it for years. It’s how I make decisions to move to the bus or not, upgrade to a line, ect.

The current vector still shows us hiring.

Crewtrac is only real time as they update it with new additions. They only take people out January, and July.

You have three seniority numbers, FLICA, CrewTrac, and the quartrly system bid. Only one is current and correct and it’s not FLICA and it’s jot crewtrac.

Numbers:

https://i.imgur.com/DxJjR8w.png

What were your projection assumptions?

My spreadsheet looks pretty much the same for determining future seniority progression, but it'll ramp at some point when the CBA is signed and vacation allocation and additional reserves are added (that's where I see staffing going from 14.5 to 17 pilots per airframe).

I DIDN'T say not hiring. I said it had slowed, and then added slowed more than normal. Which correlates with Management's announcement earlier this year of slowing growth rate and less attrition than planned/less hiring required.

I'm not sure why you disagree with any of that. I didn't say NOT hiring.