Should be an automatic NO vote, the company always has more to offer.

The best we could do? Don't know. Could we get peer-set average rates? Yes. What are those? 320/321/737 average across our peers is 264. Next year it's 273. That's the all the peer 320/321/737 rates added together and divided by number of rates. CS rates: 253/259 is market rate, going to 263/270 Jan 1st. Can we get those? Maybe. We can certainly do better than 227/248 and 2% annual raises that won't even touch 2018 market rates for that jet. If they are teaser rates...company should have no problem obliging. If they are real rates, they need to be market rate, otherwise we are bringing down the industry average significantly. EMB rates? 230 for a 100 seater, 240 for a 130 seat E195E2, and that may even be too low.

Could we get peer average raises of 3%? Yes. Timeframe I'm willing to wait? As long as it takes. I can outlast the company...I guarantee it. All of us can. The company cannot move forward with what it wants to do without this contract...otherwise they would.

How long do I realistically think it would take? If on August 1st (if that's when it closes) it's a no vote, within a month survey data could be collected and analyzed, the few big ticket items needed to make this market rate could be brought in a new proposal to the company, and a new AIP could be agreed upon and voted on in September/October. Is that realistic? Maybe, maybe not. The union will say no, because they want this to pass now. ALPA is spending time and money on this. They are about to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on road shows and selling this contract. It's in ALPA's best interest to wrap it up...they don't want to be in a labor dispute forever. DALPA said the same things to their pilots in TA15. They spent a million dollars on road shows trying to persuade the pilot group to vote yes. It's what ALPA does once they have a TA. After Delta pilots voted it down, DALPA took what, about 6 months or so IIRC to get a new contract, and thats after cleaning house with their MEC/NC, going through recalls, and reattacking a LOT of sections of their TA. We could easily do it in less time, with less drama, and less cleaning house. IMO, based only on bullets, we don't need many sections reopened. I'll wait to see the full language of the TA. But there are just a few that fall too short to be acceptable in this environment.

Is it worth the wait and risk for the unknown? That's a personal decision, and we have a lot of guys who are 1) new, 2) on 1st/2nd year pay and just want a big raise 3) afraid of not being able to get anything better 4) never gone through a negotiation cycle or this is their first airline and first airline contract, TA vote, etc., and the unknown scares them 5) think "we will get them next time, this is good enough for now." So I think this will pass. However, I've talked to a lot of people in various seats/seniorities, and I'm surprised by the number of real people who are awaiting final language, but heavily leaning no. A year or two ago they would have accepted it. But we've waited too long to get bottom of the peer set for what could be 7-8 years under this contract. What's another few months. And this mentality is not just the bluepilots crowd. It's non-lanyard wearing instructors, it's senior captains, it's junior guys, mid seniority captains on both planes I've talked to....I'd say this will be a lot closer to 50/50 than people are estimating.

Nobody is asking for a 330 pay scale. And most of the noise about the signing bonus is that it is ridiculously low, but that wouldn't sway many votes. This is a 4-7 year contract we will be working on...SB is short sighted. The people who are underwhelmed/disappointed are asking for market rate, peer set average at least pay/raises. Our 4 pay rates all fall well below average.

I usually don't agree with herc guys, and I don't agree with this either. Let's break it down. This isn't 1% of the company that is underwhelmed...it's the majority of people I've anecdotally surveyed across a huge mix of seats/equipment/bases. Some are still leaning yes for the aforementioned reasons in my previous posts. Does SWA fly wide bodies? No...that isn't part of our equation when comparing NB rates. So we should expect to get paid the same NB rates as our peers, just as they do. We make more profit than the legacies per seat. We don't need wide bodies or a large international network to be more profitable than they are. We throw money to tech ventures and other various non-airline investments. We have plenty of money to pay pilots. Plenty.

Our peers aren't AA/DL/UAL? You may wanna go ask the NC/MEC about that. That's false. They absolutely are our peers. The company takes pride in disrupting their products and outdoing them, and driving change in the industry.

Have you heard about Q's top 100 list if not met is a NO?

If there were 330 rates in this AIP rest assured they would be 5-10% below industry standard.


Its not just the E2, look at DAL C100 rates vs ours. Pathetic.

If you're already getting a 50/50 split this early in the process, then this will pass overwhelmingly when the actual votes are counted sometime in July.

They don't have a E2 rate. How about you compare the actual two airplanes CS100 to CS300 at Delta or does that not play into your argument. They are very comparable at the CS300. FYI as is the CS300 and Delta.

We are way above Delta on 190 CA rate by 40 bucks. That is what the mediators looks at numbers.

Not saying I disagree with you just saying.

On planes they spent negotiating capital on (ie not ghost rates), we aren’t close.

CS300 delta: $259 going to $269 Jan 1st. CS300 us: $248 going to $253 May 1st.
CS100: $253 going to $263 vs our $228 going to $232.

AIP.
 

But doesn’t that argument go both ways?

Their rates on a ghost airplane(190) for them suck. Their rates on a real airplane for them(c series) are good.

Our rates on a ghost airplane(c series) are decent, and our rates for our real airplane are $40 more than theirs.

Now if you want to argue that the 195 and c100 should be paid the same, I agree with you, but unfortunately that’s not reality in the industry or with the mediator.


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