Alaska and Jetblue??
 

I know there has been rumors of Ual and JB, but I have heard from a good source that Alaska and Jb may be possibly talking and have been for some time now... It seems to me that Alaska really wants become alot closer in the Big 3's rear view mirror. First Virgin and then a JB merger would make Alaska a 7,000 pilot airline! Discuss....

It makes the most sense. Question is who’s management takes over. And I want nothing to do with Alaska’s lack of scope.

Wow first post.

Easy staple all the ALK guys below JetBlue after they take out the VA guys from the list and staple them to the very bottom. (Right shyguy) :)

But who knows these days god knows our management isn’t leading.

Yes :D


I'd like a B6/AS merger, it would also be fairly easy to pass DOJ Antitrust compared to other airline options.

Staple ‘em!! Fence off the 321!! ;-)

Project Barbell Part II

I see what you did there. No money in the middle of the country anyway.

I am genuinely torn on whether a domestic network could thrive without a mid-america hub. Something like the A220 will definitely bring better CASM and open up smaller midwest cities, but how will a passenger get from Spokane to Jacksonville efficiently? GEG-SEA-FLL-JAX? Ick.

Without a mid-america hub would the B6/AS networks just be operating independently of each other? What "synergies" (gag me) would there be? Maybe you're right that we don't need any midwest presence because there is no money to be made.

Oh dude, I was being sarcastic. You absolutely need a mid-continent hub to maximize both independent networks.

Even if you had SEA-JAX, a flight from IDA or HLN to Jax would be very unpleasant. And a million other itineraries.

Yes, the airline doesn't have to serve all of them, but if it really wants to compete with the big 4 for Corp contracts it will need to serve a lot of them.

Existing B6 + AK would add a lot more itineraries, but not enough and they wouldn't all be very attractive.

Mid-america hub? Why?

How much originating traffic comes from a mid-america hub? If we are talking a global airline perhaps but how much travel and connections ACTUALLY come from the middle of the country? Without digging into traffic reports it doesn’t make a ton of financial sense. The census bureau statistics indicate future population growth comes from South America focusing on that direction seems more logical.
If you look at ORD or IAH the land was cheap and terminals were built therefore feeding traffic through there to get else where but not because those cities population centers travelled. Just an opinion.

The mid-continent population centers do have tremendous amounts of O&D, both business and leisure. Delta prints money in MSP, and DEN and Chicago are very hotly contested hubs for a reason. In addition to O&D it creates lucrative connection opportunities that just don't exist without one.

Just my opinion of course.

JB/AS does make the most sense. Don’t know which management team or board willingly walking away.

I don’t know if you need a mid America hub. If take the current JetBlue and Alaska hubs, and connect each of them to STL, MCI, CVG etc... you can get 95% of the American population to destination with one stop.

Speaking of JB + AK, would the new airline paint "Proudly Some Boeings" on the aircraft?

I suspect this is the largest roadblock to any B6/AS merger


The only hurdle to this would be gate/slot capacity at the big coastal airports like BOS/JFK/SFO/LAX. Thats why it might be more economical to develop one of those cities into a mid-America hub so you can save the more valuable coastal airport resources.

Again, I'm not sure what the right answer is in this regard, either choice has its pros/cons.

I see your point but I guess my argument is where are those pax going? They’re flying out of ORD/DEN to get somewhere right? Can jetblue just fly from JFK to those cities without having to spend all the resources building a new base? A ton of flying out of those cities is regional anyhow isn’t it? And the wide body flying is bringing in connectors to then go outside the US. Simply fly from FLL/JFK/BOS to those smaller cities and you have e the same set up. Otherwise your mid-America hub simply flies people from smaller cities to the hub and then what?

What do I know. Just my thought.

Nice first post by the way. How big is wn now?

We are going to be sharing a mega terminal at JFK.

I just wish Alaska had a better scope section.

(I’m sure the Alaska guys feel similarly)

Easy. In a JCBA both groups negotiate to keep JB scope and fly the RJs at mainline...a 3 way merger with horizon getting stapled for seniority but keeping longevity. And SKW paints their Alaska jets in a different livery after they get dropped.

You created another account just for that post? Troll.

I wish Alaska had A scope section

Not that it means squat, but at the company pep rally sessions in SEA Alaska management has claimed no more mergers, again that’s meaningless, so who knows.
The current consensus guess of their plan seems to be the 319 and 320s will be gone and probably the 321 as well, so the fleet commonality argument wouldn’t exist.

I certainly don't know your management but speaking first hand from our dirt bag management I will say anything is possible.

Jetblue continues to waive the organic growth flag because that simple narrative keeps the majority of the employee groups head buried in the sand. Ignorance is truly bliss and if you believe management is looking out for you then you typically come to work and do more.

The reality, from a jetblue standpoin,t is management pursued Frontier in the early 10's. They publicly bid for Virgin in '16, Delta made an offer in '17(according to a department senior finance member) and then recently the NDA signed with UAL.

I don't know about the AK pilot group but the Jetblue group is amongst the most naive out there and truly believe Jetblue is wholesome and would sell the airline. Bullsheet! Gigitys statements to the media, the recent Forbes article and the simple, most basic, reason why a merger will happen is the entire investment community knows Jetblue management, excuse me leadership, is in over their heads and the only way out is to move on.

Something is coming, there's nothing we can do about it and having to fly with pilots who still believe in Jetblue management is like finger nails on a chalk board.

Dal made an offer? First ever heard of that. Every airline exec has a golden parachute so they will be fine anywhich way.

No merger will take place while airlines are making gobs and gobs of money. Why upset the investor apple cart if you don’t need to?

Except for that time we tried to get VX but AS beat us out. Back when we got more than 0.2% profit sharing...

That’s a new one DAL?

So about that. Alaska took on a whole pile of debt to get VX. Would a merged Alaska/JetBlue be in a worse-off place than if JetBlue had won that merger instead? I'm worried that a merged Alaska/JetBlue would be financially worse-off than if we stayed separate.

It’s because of mergers airlines are making gobs and gobs of money.
We have less airlines now vs the time before deregulation.

Cue the “Delta and Jetblue?” thread.

UA is the least profitable of the Big 3 and investor pressure to change that. Our financials are solid, RASM on Mint flying is healthy. Good cash on hand. If they wait til conditions are more favorable to a merger then there could be a bidding war for B6.

I think that's a fair concern

To my knowledge, Delta did not make an actual offer, but had considered it.

It's also very likely a different presidential administration would make a merger even more difficult. IF something is to happen with the big 3, it would happen sooner than later. IF.

+1

Without getting too political, 2020 isn't very far away and there could possibly be drastic changes to the administration at that point.

Agreed. Opinions are favorable but 2020 may not be. Perhaps that is why jetblue continues to threaten the establishment.

Good point.

I partially agree. airlines are running better businesses since deregulation too. They were forced into working for their money.

You would be nuts coming to Blew jet...If you have any aspirations for your career stay clear. I’m sure we hired our last Airbus Captain 2014 sometime.

There will be a bidding war so furious it would make the VX one look like childs play, whenever it comes.

To the OP: majority of employees at B6 would enthusiastically embrace a merger with Alaska, or anyone else for that matter except the ULCCs.

Absolutely agree. In the same way that AS was forced to spend a lot to buy VX in order to prevent B6 from being too strong, AA for instance could be forced to spend $$$ to prevent UA from being too strong. Maybe toss WN into the mix because this would be their last chance to get a northeast presence. Or DL, just to control the divestiture of JFK/LGA assets. Maybe even AS because they need to grow outside of the west coast. Hell, is it crazy to think someone like EK would want to jump in with a 25% bid? Or is it crazier to think Neeleman would raise enough funds to take B6 private and under his control?

And now thinking about the company buying back billions of stock makes more sense...