All from wakeman at recurrent this week-

• we're (relatively) cheap, and Alaska supposedly has the money and a want to get us to be national competitor, they expect calls with discussion to merge very soon/in the next year (can't speak to anything right now)
• some talks occurred during spirit merger attempt w/ B6/AS for a large combined national carrier
• Pratt opening up another factory, new engines coming out don't have issues
• estimate resolution for engines to be late 2026 as opposed to 2028 initially.
• JB will see about getting back some of deferred orders when this is resolved
• early outs offered within coming weeks, going to be for folks 55+
• if 50% take early outs we'll be hiring before end of the coming year
• if nobody takes early outs hiring early

2026

-growing by mid next year, biggest JetBlue has ever been as the previously to be retired 320's are sticking around now and after 190's gone we net positive aircraft

Spark notes

All of the Alaska stuff has already been denied by wakeman himself. He says he never said it.

Also he’s about 8 levels below anyone who would actually have knowledge of any talks.

Yeah im not putting that much stock into it. I think AS/B6 would make a fine combo but don’t think it will happen for at least another 2yrs

Those in the know are not at liberty to talk about a merger. And the group who knows is very small.

You have to wonder who typed this info and credited it to a specific individual. It’s weird behavior with little to gain from it.

There are a few pilots here with nothing better to do.

My speculation based on previous experience at the recurrent lunches:


Mgmt: What questions do you have for me?

Pilot: Are we merging with Alaska?

Mgmt: Look, you know, I'll find out when I see it in the news, the same time you guys do. But, I mean, it would make sense. We are relatively cheap right now and combined, we could be a strong competitor.

Pilot: If it did happen, when would it happen?

Mgmt: I really couldn't say, it's just speculation.

Pilot: But, could it happen soon? Like next year?

Mgmt: In theory, I guess they could call any time.


And someone jots down the notes and spreads the "news."

😂 nailed it

I just don't see how Alaska could possibly be talking about another merger when they currently have their hands full. If someone does decide to merge with or acquire JetBlue, they have 4 years to get it done. The clock starts soon.

If it is AS I think they could do it under any administration. Only thing imho that would push things up is if (IF) jet forward actually works, we woukd be much more expensive.

I was in this recurrent. None of this was ever said. Especially not about Alaska, Alaska relative to Spirit, Pratt, the early outs...

I dont know why people feel the need to make up misinformation. Does no one any good.

It follows the maturity and emotional intelligence levels of high schoolers.

💯👍 I guess some people wake up wondering, ‘What can I make up today?’ Maybe they think starting a rumor about JetBlue’s acquisition would be exciting. If you’re going to lie, at least make it convincing. Thank goodness we can finally put this thread to rest.

Please define "Jet Forward" for us. What is it you think they're accomplishing out of the ordinary which would make an investor spend "much much more." I would love to know that it's something more, but I fear you're overly optimistic.

As far as I can tell, Jet Forward is a focus on basic operational management which they should have been doing the entire time. There's nothing novel about it, beyond the name. Yes, it seems to be helping some, but I'm still waiting for them to present a coherent "Plan B." There's is no vision, it's a stay afloat strategy with a sprinkle of wishful thinking until something external changes our circumstances.

Assume two paths forward. We either merge with someone under Ch11 bankruptcy for pennies on the dollar or we merge with someone after showing sustained profitability. Jetforward is an attempt at making profits so we can get a better valuation in a merger scenario

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/s...:JBLU:ULCC:AAL

Basic operation focus, reshuffle to east coast leisure network, get rid of uneconomic planes (190s), enhance product (first class, lounges). This should hopefully get us to some stable profits and we get a good valuation in a merger.

Since we’re on the topic of both airlines look up “Alaska Accelerate” and compare it to “JetForward.”

I think merger/acquisition is the only play left. We have no fortress hubs that allows us to control pricing, and always turn out a profit from. We are always one Hurricane away from wiping out an entire qtrs profits, when it tracks practically through every base we have. We’ll never be able to get to the margins that the big 4-5 have. Everyone has caught up or surpassed our product as of late. Back in the day, wifi and TV’s were a hot commodity, now it’s the norm. With out any business contracts, cargo, wide body premium, etc. If oil spikes, or the economy dips, there is no way we make a profit. We have no pricing power. We have all this debt to service, we dished out millions for a failed merger. This is all way above my pay grade, but I just don’t see how this continues long term without a merger.

or a trip through the bk car wash

Fixed it for you.

I chuckle when the blue juicers fawn over the “product”. Literally everyone has passed us and if we go through with the economy seat pitch reduction to do mini mint we will have lost our only differentiation. United is doing free Starlink which is going to blow our POS wifi out of the Dominican water.

Hurricane?? Bro, we're one rain storm over NYC away from wiping out profits.

I was delayed this past week for over an hour on a flight for no reason, which in turn delayed the next flight. Airplane came in on time from the DR, needed to clear and get towed over from international. No weather, no "ATC issues". Just incompetence, and this stuff happens every single day.

If a merger/aquisition IS the plan, how soon do you give til an announcement. The Clock is starting in a few days

Honestly I don’t think it would matter which administration. There is hardly any overlap and one isn’t god forbid a ulcc. Be hard to argue that they would harm consumers by merging(if that was to ever happen)

Agree with this. It would certainly be smart to get it done under this administration, but I doubt we hear anything soon. If it is AS for our future then JB is going to need to show a year of profitability and AS will need to finish sorting their HA merger. I bet 2Q 2026 at the earliest for any sort of announcement, but more likely into 2027.

2025 is the shoot par or bust year folks, they've been saying it in every town hall podcast whatever they are called.

A publicly traded company has to show one year of profitability before becoming a M&A target? Interesting….

C'mon man... of course not. But if you're a potential suitor would you want to merge with JBLU at a $xx valuation? Or would you want to do it under Ch11 when you can slash and burn and buy the carcass for $.01.

Assuming a fiduciary duty to shareholders then yes JB mgmt would want to get the best price they can for a merger and show they are worth a $xx share price instead of $.01. If there was truly no prospect of turning this around then sure we would be merging on Jan 20th.

Also consider the most realistic partner for us is AS, and they are busy with finishing the HA merger for at least another year or two. So what do we do in the meantime? Make ourselves look as good as possible. Moral of the story: I don't think we will see a merger in 2025.

I don’t know it’s what you said, just like the shares Carl Icahn were selling. (kidding). JetBlue might want the best price, but I think they have to be realistic as well. Definitely don’t think it’ll be in 2025 like you said, or maybe never.

Ooof, Icahn's shares. Man youre really peeing all over my cheerios today.

Yes you're right, there's a real chance we dont ever merge with anyone either. None of us know the future but we're all here to speculate and try to find a glimmer of hope.

you sure a merger is a glimmer of hope? I would tell you a glimmer of hope is a company standing on its own.

Yes that would be ideal. Lets hope everything goes JB’s way and we start raking in the profits as a standalone carrier and can grow/defend our hubs from competitors.

Not anymore. Latest communique says we do not expect to be profitable in 2025.

I said par as in what Geraghty said “our revenue needs to cover our operating expenses.” She didn’t say profitable.

Got some 2026 LEAPS just in case
I think it will be in the cards.
Alaska

Damn that's brave.

Last I’d heard we were expecting breakeven in 2025, no?

“In 2025, we expect to have a positive operating profit but still be unprofitable overall.”

From her weekly update email.

No, I know, I just quoted that 2 posts ago. I mean all the past year before the email from 2 days ago that I already mentioned. Whatever, nevermind, I’ve stopped caring.

In other words if it weren't for all the debt strangling us at 7%+ interest we would be profitable.

Meanwhile Delta just reported 12% operating margins.

I think a major downfall of anyone outside of the big 3 is the fact that Airlines have turned into financial institutions. Loyalty benefits, cobranded credit cards, frequent flyer programs, etc. These programs now bring a lot of revenue and offer upfront payment to the airlines for miles sold to institutions. Far outweighing ancillary fees which
Spirit was known for.

Now if you were to sign up for a credit card would you take a hard inquiry to sign up for TrueBlue, where one will always have to go through JFK or BOS or for a legacy card with lounge access and a global network.

I'm too lazy to look it up but does anyone have any idea how much the legacies make off their credit cards vs everything else? If for example airline credit cards were banned tomorrow, would the big 3 still show profit?