[Speculation] AK / B6 let's go!
 

https://beatofhawaii.com/does-the-hawaiian-merger-connect-the-dots-between-alaska-and-jetblue/

Thoughts?

This is purely a speculation piece. And what does it have to do with AA as your title suggests? Maybe fix the title to AK...

I think Greek yogurt does a fine job standing in for sour cream.

Better even.

Can you not do such a misleading title? We are the same ones who complain when the media makes inaccurate/misleading titles in their articles. I guess we are not any better. Nothing is official and it's all speculations and rumors. Until then, you can say "AK/B6 Merger?"

"This idea, rumored for years, is gaining traction again among insiders because of Hawaiian Airlines’ crucial role."........LOL insiders you mean like Pilots at thier Crashpads and on each others jumpseat.

"Together, they could create a powerhouse that serves Hawaii travelers across the country while seriously taking on the big four airlines—Delta, United, American, and Southwest"

Oh I don't doubt it'd be a powerhouse but not because of the Hawaii markets. The sabrematricians at legacies will tell you Hawaii is basically a giant waste of money...it is only kept around to entice the frequent fliers with high status to cash in thier points.
The money is in the Transpacific market but a wee little bit more Eastbound like Korea, Japan, China, and Taiwan.

But this publication/website probably has a mostly Hawaiian readership so I am not surprised.

"It's Official" is the biggest sh!tpost title ever. Go back to your C-17, nerd.

If you want to work for an airline that slowly shrinks in mainline aircraft for the 7 years you have been employed there. Being aquired by AK would be amazing...

"Its official! I'm posting a clickbait headline with no actual verifiable source of information and waiting for the reaction!"

Thanks for your reaction! 😁

I am also hearing this is happening.

AK hands their hands full with the buyout of HA.
Seems like wishful thinking to put JB in the mix within the next five years.

Stock price has had a few spikes this month without any positive news. Unless the market is reacting to our displacements.

Spirit stock had a big spike the week before they announced bankruptcy; the market is not always a reliable indicator. But displacements will save money so technically it could be bullish for the stock.

from sources other than the recurrent text floating around?

While it's a fairly obvious and potentially logical business move, some things have to happen first...

AS finishes up the HA meger, that's probably 3-5 years before they have bandwidth to go back to the M&A buffet.

HA merger needs to wind up being profitable, if they're losing money it's in their DNA to fix that, not double down and spend more money that they don't have on new toys.

Political/Judicial climate might need to be permissive. HA may have been a special case in that regard, with strong local political support from the proper side of the aisle. I'm pretty certain that both Kanter and Kan wanted and fully intended to kill the AS/HA deal, but got shot down by the Party at the 11th hour due to election dynamics.

Also history and culture leads one to conclude that AS is interested only in acquisition, not sale or even a merger of equals. So that might be a factor depending on B6 managers.

And you don’t think they have the capability to amend the agreement and add a third company into the mix if the numbers work? The Trump administration may be the best opportunity they have for a long time.

The Alaska CEO says the merger is going exceedingly well and that they know how to do acquisitions.

The Air Show: Ben Minicucci

They could, either amend to a three-way (complicated and risky), or tack on B6 as soon as SOC is achieved. SOC is kind of the hump, after which they have the freedom of action to get everything structured per their vision, and eliminate duplicate overhead.

But their DNA is very risk-averse. The current leaders are objectively more aggressive and innovative than in the past but that doesn't quite put them in the Doug Parker league, at least by my estimate.

That's true enough. Essentially a slam dunk.

So maybe SOC in two-ish years, and then seize the opportunity?

that’s my thinking. Give it 2yrs and AS/B6 hopefully happens

Will there be an opportunity? What if JetBlue actually turns itself around, how much higher would the price be? I’m not saying they will but if they excute the plan and the airline starts making money it might be a much different merger discussion. However I think even with a democrat in office it should be approved there is almost no real overlap and they aren’t the dreaded LCC killing a ULCC.

I do wonder if you have to wait for HA to be done or if everything is a mess why not just do it now vs cleaning up and getting messy again.

But that all way way over my head so who knows.

While I initially thought this timeline was a bit optimistic, I believed the company was targeting October 2025 for an SOC.

I believe that to be more than a bit optimistic.

Unless the company rolls a wheelbarrow full of cash into the JCBA meeting, to pay off the 2500 AS natives who are going to lose relative seniority in the SLI.

Or maybe the company could get 2500 to vote yes using the 787 dog whistle.

Why would AK (AirAsia) want to or even have the ability to acquire JetBlue? Your suggestion is downright bizarre on a number of levels.

You quoted the wrong person. I didn't start this thread. I simply stated it was an opinion piece and had nothing to do with AA like the original thread title had listed.

It’s only a matter of time before this is looked at more seriously, if not already by Alaska. Growth is limited by airport constraints at US airports. At some point, the bean counters will see the savings and profits for economies of scale combined with Jetblue. The share holders will be looking for more return and once all other avenues are exhausted, scaling the company only makes more financial sense. Along with all the efficiency savings from being a larger player, mx, lending rates, fuel, aircraft orders, ect. Acquiring Jetblue fills their network out and allows all sorts of growth and feed. Not that Alaska needs Jetblue.

I quoted you because you said "Maybe fix the title to AK..." and since AK is AirAsia it is an odd suggestion from you.

Do you guys think AS/WN would be a potential combo? Change is afoot at LUV HQ and I could see the two merge, remain 737s for NB and use 787s to expand globally. Probably even see AS mgmt take some key roles in the C-suite of the combined company.

Never say never but I think Elliot over at LUV, sees the golden goose by transforming SW into more of a traditional “fee charging” airline to boost his return. First class, bag fees, pay for seat assignments, etc… all the revenue streams they have lacked for years. I think they have a fairly complete network in the states to make that happen, once they implement there changes. That’s probably where there priorities are right now.

What was the recurrent text message floating around about?

Nothing that earth shattering, but apparently AS wants JB so they can be a national competitor and talks are expected to begin in the spring. This was from recurrent lunch, but the mgmt dude came in the next week to refute it all.

refute it all…..yup. Uh the President is obviously running for reelection a week later it’s a good move to stand aside for a new generation.

If you are AS and if you want to be a “big” airline you would be crazy not to try to grab us. But that’s a lot of (ifs)

It would make for a very interesting airline and I wonder with proper management and a much larger network it could be a pretty good competitor.

We aren't cheap at all. If we were a small business we would have an $8 million mortgage at 7% interest, and be at best bringing in $150k/yr in cash in the next few years. We are currently operating at a loss. We are a zombie company.

Stock is up 5% when JETS ETF is red. Investors are coming around. I don’t know if that’s because of an expected buyout or the actual turn around story of “Jet Forward.”

It could just be the Boeing bump after the 73 incident.

Alaska could probably fix that, especially in the context of a larger merged network.*

* Caveat: Assuming the HA integration goes well.

I thought about that. But to me that’s not a good reason to buy the stock. The incident aircraft was not a max, it was a 2009 model.

Market reacting to the Spark Notes posted above.

We are in full skirt lifting mode.

dude. Unless I’m trippin that “spark notes” post on potato farm was taken down. That’s pretty suspicious man…

For those that didn't see it... what was it?