Originally Posted by Luv2Rotate (Post 830583)

Pilot shortage? I believe it! Also, I can't wear condoms because they don't make one that fits properly. :D

Originally Posted by SkyHigh (Post 830945)

The cost of flight training has gone up much faster than inflation. In addition I think that word is getting out about what a long shot professional aviation is. As a result student starts are falling off a cliff. Baby boomer hobby pilots are beginning to drop out of flying as they age in droves.

I foresee a sharp and sudden reduction in GA as these two perfect storms collide. How will the budding flight instructors get their hours?

Skyhigh

Originally Posted by globalexpress (Post 830574)

We have 1000's of pilots on the street who are furloughed, who are in the military and want to get out, who have all the credentials but are working in other fields because they can't support themselves on current entry level pilot wages, all sitting on the sidelines waiting for the opportunity to get back in.

{snip}

Besides, any pilot shortage is pretty easily fixable in theory. All airline management, flight schools, cargo carriers, corporate flight departments, etc., have to do is pay a realistic wage that allows a young person or career changer to earn an income to cover the debt and personal sacrifice one has to endure to become a professional pilot and they'll have all the pilots they want.

Originally Posted by bcrosier (Post 831018)

I can very easily see the crooks who run the airlines using a trumped up "pilot shortage" in a few years as an excuse to try and ram a MPL through so they can maintain starvation level wages.

Originally Posted by globalexpress (Post 830574)

I'll believe there is a true pilot shortage when:

1) Every aviation company seeking a pilot candidate offers a entry level professional compensation package similar to what other professionals earn in other industries AND

2) Airplanes start getting parked for lack of pilots AND

3) 1&2 above happen occur over an extended period of time (i.e. Not just a few weeks or months during the peak of an economic cycle like in 2007- think a year or two)

Until those things happen, it's the same old "blah, blah" I've been hearing for close to 25 years now.

We have 1000's of pilots on the street who are furloughed, who are in the military and want to get out, who have all the credentials but are working in other fields because they can't support themselves on current entry level pilot wages, all sitting on the sidelines waiting for the opportunity to get back in. That's not even counting all the guys/gals the flight training industry continues to spit out month after month, year after year, for the past few years with no jobs to go to. That's a pretty deep initial pool to draw from without even having to think about any sort of shortage. And of course, we have this Age 65 thing killing forward movement for the next two and a half years! Throw in a normal business cycle downturn in the next 5 years and we are pretty fat for airline pilots for the foreseeable future.

Besides, any pilot shortage is pretty easily fixable in theory. All airline management, flight schools, cargo carriers, corporate flight departments, etc., have to do is pay a realistic wage that allows a young person or career changer to earn an income to cover the debt and personal sacrifice one has to endure to become a professional pilot and they'll have all the pilots they want.