FL510

I've been hearing about the "impending" pilot shortage for over 30 years, never saw it. Maybe I just might see it after all.

Cessna chairman Jack Pelton gave a speech to the Aero Club of DC in which he expects the number of student pilots to fall to a 10 year low next year. Ya know what, I believe him! I personally know several pilots, young and old, who have given up on this profession and know several CFI's that are going broke because of no students.

Who wants to get into this business, especially now? Let's see, spend $150,000 on ratings and a degree, work for $18,000 per year (if you can find a job), get furloughed, start all over and repeat.

What about aircraft mechanics? Not much better in that segment of the industry either. Why go out and spend the money on the required A&P certificates only to find out the aircraft manufacturer you had you heart set on working for MOVED OPERATIONS TO MEXICO OR CHINA!!! See Cessna......Hey Jack, how about building plants here in the U.S.? Not in Mexico or China so the pilots, mechanics and engineers you're so worried about can get a job here in The United States!!!!!


Cessna?s Pelton: Fewer pilots a problem - Wichita Business Journal

Aircraft Machinists Protest Job Out-Sourcing to Mexico - KWCH - Kansas News and Weather -

Yingling subsidiary puts Skycatcher to work - Wichita Business Journal

globalexpress

I'll believe there is a true pilot shortage when:

1) Every aviation company seeking a pilot candidate offers a entry level professional compensation package similar to what other professionals earn in other industries AND

2) Airplanes start getting parked for lack of pilots AND

3) 1&2 above happen occur over an extended period of time (i.e. Not just a few weeks or months during the peak of an economic cycle like in 2007- think a year or two)

Until those things happen, it's the same old "blah, blah" I've been hearing for close to 25 years now.

We have 1000's of pilots on the street who are furloughed, who are in the military and want to get out, who have all the credentials but are working in other fields because they can't support themselves on current entry level pilot wages, all sitting on the sidelines waiting for the opportunity to get back in. That's not even counting all the guys/gals the flight training industry continues to spit out month after month, year after year, for the past few years with no jobs to go to. That's a pretty deep initial pool to draw from without even having to think about any sort of shortage. And of course, we have this Age 65 thing killing forward movement for the next two and a half years! Throw in a normal business cycle downturn in the next 5 years and we are pretty fat for airline pilots for the foreseeable future.

Besides, any pilot shortage is pretty easily fixable in theory. All airline management, flight schools, cargo carriers, corporate flight departments, etc., have to do is pay a realistic wage that allows a young person or career changer to earn an income to cover the debt and personal sacrifice one has to endure to become a professional pilot and they'll have all the pilots they want.

Luv2Rotate

Pilot shortage? I believe it! Also, I can't wear condoms because they don't make one that fits properly.

Mink

Jack Pelton's "pilot shortage" is actually a customer shortage for Cessna aircraft. No normal person can afford to get into flying as a career, let alone a hobby.

ce650

There will ALWAYS be more pilots than jobs.

mshunter

Yeah, I can't seem to find any other than ones that are too big too.

Golden Bear

Embraer reveals vision for single-pilot airliners

DATE:16/06/10

SOURCE:Air Transport Intelligence news

Embraer reveals vision for single-pilot airliners
By Andrew Doyle

Embraer is preparing for the possible introduction of airliners designed for single-pilot operation by as early as 2020, following the roll-out of next-generation air traffic management systems in Europe and the USA.

Vice-president for airline market intelligence Luiz Sergio Chiessi says the Brazilian manufacturer is looking to provide "single-pilot capability, at least" in the 2020-25 timeframe.

He cautions, however, that much work needs to be done to persuade the travelling public, regulatory authorities and unions that the concept is feasible.

"It's very difficult to predict that this is going to happen, but I believe that we will have to provide capability for eventual implementation into the real world," says Chiessi.

Embraer is the first airliner manufacturer to publicly acknowledge it is in the early stages of studying single-pilot airliners.

"Airlines are not coming to us with the idea - this is more a vision that we have. We believe that it is technically possible, but we don't know if it is going to be accepted by the public and the authrorities," says Chiessi.

"We believe that by 2020-25 the technology will be available, mainly due to the evolution of the air traffic management systems: NextGen in the USA and SESAR in Europe. We believe that the functions that will come with these new ATM systems will create the possibility of single-pilot [airline operations].

"We haven't moved that far in terms of how to implement the concept. This is more a vision of the future than something that was fully analysed in terms of bits and bytes."

Allowing single-crew operation of airliners would provide substantial savings for airlines and help to alleviate forecast pilot shortages once the industry returns to sustained growth.

Some lower-end business jets such as Embraer's Phenom family are already certificated in certain states for single-pilot operation under Part 91 rules, but customers sometimes demand a two-pilot crew even if it is not required.

"With the electronics you can make a lot of the [cockpit] functions automatic," says Chiessi. "If you take the checklist of a conventional aircraft, for every 10 items you have, there are one or two on the Phenom. Every other action is being taken care of by the electronics."

Twin Wasp

Back a LONG time ago when I was CFIing at a CPC, the Cessna rep came through with a new 210. Our sales guy was floored when he saw the price and said, "No one's going to spend a $100,000 on a 210."

It's all relative.

Airborne1

I cant believe that their are pilots still out there that believe there is going to be a pilot shortage. Come on!!! Pilot shortage ideas are good marketing tools for unethical flights schools. The idea helps keeps wages low for many airlines. Those that believe might as well believe in "its the great pumpkin Charlie Brown."

All the pilot shortage guys needs to set aside their own personal wishes and day dreaming ideas about the subject and look at the facts.

uhhh... I am already done with this thread.

jonnyjetprop

Of course there have been "shortages". Hiring standards go up and down based on the pool of canidates. There would not have been pilot puppy mills had the standards not dropped in the late 90's. The problem is that there hasn't been a crash like some hope to see. No one is offering to pay a university grad to go to pilot school and fly for a major. The military still cranks out free pilot ratings to those who choose to serve. It's just in smaller numbers. It's numbers in, numbers out. Pilots will start retiring in 2013 and the economy will improve. Grandma still needs to see the grandkids and businessmen still need to meet and greet.