Pilot shortage... Again!
#11
#12
The cost
The cost of flight training has gone up much faster than inflation. In addition I think that word is getting out about what a long shot professional aviation is. As a result student starts are falling off a cliff. Baby boomer hobby pilots are beginning to drop out of flying as they age in droves.
I foresee a sharp and sudden reduction in GA as these two perfect storms collide. How will the budding flight instructors get their hours?
Skyhigh
I foresee a sharp and sudden reduction in GA as these two perfect storms collide. How will the budding flight instructors get their hours?
Skyhigh
#13
Instructors Take Heed !
Anyone who is considering blowing a small fortune on getting a CFI should take heed. For the first time there are currently more instructors than new students in the USA. The odds of getting a good job as a CFI are slimming. An alternative plan is to skip the CFI buy a Cessna 150 instead and fly off a few hundred hours on your own terms.
Skyhigh
Skyhigh
#14
The cost of flight training has gone up much faster than inflation. In addition I think that word is getting out about what a long shot professional aviation is. As a result student starts are falling off a cliff. Baby boomer hobby pilots are beginning to drop out of flying as they age in droves.
I foresee a sharp and sudden reduction in GA as these two perfect storms collide. How will the budding flight instructors get their hours?
Skyhigh
I foresee a sharp and sudden reduction in GA as these two perfect storms collide. How will the budding flight instructors get their hours?
Skyhigh
#15
Eats shoots and leaves...
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Position: Didactic Synthetic Aviation Experience Provider
Posts: 849
We have 1000's of pilots on the street who are furloughed, who are in the military and want to get out, who have all the credentials but are working in other fields because they can't support themselves on current entry level pilot wages, all sitting on the sidelines waiting for the opportunity to get back in.
{snip}
Besides, any pilot shortage is pretty easily fixable in theory. All airline management, flight schools, cargo carriers, corporate flight departments, etc., have to do is pay a realistic wage that allows a young person or career changer to earn an income to cover the debt and personal sacrifice one has to endure to become a professional pilot and they'll have all the pilots they want.
{snip}
Besides, any pilot shortage is pretty easily fixable in theory. All airline management, flight schools, cargo carriers, corporate flight departments, etc., have to do is pay a realistic wage that allows a young person or career changer to earn an income to cover the debt and personal sacrifice one has to endure to become a professional pilot and they'll have all the pilots they want.
#16
#17
I'll believe there is a true pilot shortage when:
1) Every aviation company seeking a pilot candidate offers a entry level professional compensation package similar to what other professionals earn in other industries AND
2) Airplanes start getting parked for lack of pilots AND
3) 1&2 above happen occur over an extended period of time (i.e. Not just a few weeks or months during the peak of an economic cycle like in 2007- think a year or two)
Until those things happen, it's the same old "blah, blah" I've been hearing for close to 25 years now.
We have 1000's of pilots on the street who are furloughed, who are in the military and want to get out, who have all the credentials but are working in other fields because they can't support themselves on current entry level pilot wages, all sitting on the sidelines waiting for the opportunity to get back in. That's not even counting all the guys/gals the flight training industry continues to spit out month after month, year after year, for the past few years with no jobs to go to. That's a pretty deep initial pool to draw from without even having to think about any sort of shortage. And of course, we have this Age 65 thing killing forward movement for the next two and a half years! Throw in a normal business cycle downturn in the next 5 years and we are pretty fat for airline pilots for the foreseeable future.
Besides, any pilot shortage is pretty easily fixable in theory. All airline management, flight schools, cargo carriers, corporate flight departments, etc., have to do is pay a realistic wage that allows a young person or career changer to earn an income to cover the debt and personal sacrifice one has to endure to become a professional pilot and they'll have all the pilots they want.
1) Every aviation company seeking a pilot candidate offers a entry level professional compensation package similar to what other professionals earn in other industries AND
2) Airplanes start getting parked for lack of pilots AND
3) 1&2 above happen occur over an extended period of time (i.e. Not just a few weeks or months during the peak of an economic cycle like in 2007- think a year or two)
Until those things happen, it's the same old "blah, blah" I've been hearing for close to 25 years now.
We have 1000's of pilots on the street who are furloughed, who are in the military and want to get out, who have all the credentials but are working in other fields because they can't support themselves on current entry level pilot wages, all sitting on the sidelines waiting for the opportunity to get back in. That's not even counting all the guys/gals the flight training industry continues to spit out month after month, year after year, for the past few years with no jobs to go to. That's a pretty deep initial pool to draw from without even having to think about any sort of shortage. And of course, we have this Age 65 thing killing forward movement for the next two and a half years! Throw in a normal business cycle downturn in the next 5 years and we are pretty fat for airline pilots for the foreseeable future.
Besides, any pilot shortage is pretty easily fixable in theory. All airline management, flight schools, cargo carriers, corporate flight departments, etc., have to do is pay a realistic wage that allows a young person or career changer to earn an income to cover the debt and personal sacrifice one has to endure to become a professional pilot and they'll have all the pilots they want.
I couldn't have said it better myself.
#18
Hi!
"Back a LONG time ago when I was CFIing at a CPC, the Cessna rep came through with a new 210. Our sales guy was floored when he saw the price and said, "No one's going to spend a $100,000 on a 210."
It's all relative."
BUT, now, they are trying to sell us a brand new C-172, at a very high price, AND it's the VERY SAME CESSNA (add electronics, some leather and cupholders) now that they were selling a LONG time ago!
Gee, where can I go my brand new 1955 C-172, gussied up for 2010?
The aviation manufacturers decided to suck the profits out of the work, instead of investing in new products. Hope they can turn it around!
cliff
LFW
"Back a LONG time ago when I was CFIing at a CPC, the Cessna rep came through with a new 210. Our sales guy was floored when he saw the price and said, "No one's going to spend a $100,000 on a 210."
It's all relative."
BUT, now, they are trying to sell us a brand new C-172, at a very high price, AND it's the VERY SAME CESSNA (add electronics, some leather and cupholders) now that they were selling a LONG time ago!
Gee, where can I go my brand new 1955 C-172, gussied up for 2010?
The aviation manufacturers decided to suck the profits out of the work, instead of investing in new products. Hope they can turn it around!
cliff
LFW
#19
Gets Weekend Reserve
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,609
Pilot shortage? I believe it........ in China, maybe India, the Middle East maybe.
In the US? As Ace Ventura would say..... RE-HE-HE-HE-HE-ALLY??? Not for a while at least.
The only saving grace in the US would be if the banks completely wise up and not give any more loans for pilot training on the grounds that it's unreasonable to expect to pay them back... and that just might be the case. It's a totally different industry today than it was in the 90's, and the expectations of a pilot entering the industry today are a whole helluva lot different than they were in the 1990's...
In the US? As Ace Ventura would say..... RE-HE-HE-HE-HE-ALLY??? Not for a while at least.
The only saving grace in the US would be if the banks completely wise up and not give any more loans for pilot training on the grounds that it's unreasonable to expect to pay them back... and that just might be the case. It's a totally different industry today than it was in the 90's, and the expectations of a pilot entering the industry today are a whole helluva lot different than they were in the 1990's...
#20
U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics says nothing of a pilot shortage. Actually it predicts a minor contraction (8% growth is less than average or 12%; see charts in the link below), and the growth will not even be concentrated at the majors, it will be mostly at the regionals within the airline subsection.
USBLS
USBLS
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