Pilot shortage? really?
 

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/busine...hortage30.html


what do we make of this? The US is the only place without a shortage they seem to say.

Yes, this article was posted in the regional forum. Of course the U.S. doesn't have a shortage being we're the pilot factory for the world.

This should make everyone wonder about open skies again. This is yet another case of the rest of the world trying to lower requirements to fly, and the U.S. wants to allow the rest of the world into our system. Maybe if the public knew they could potentially be riding on an aircraft with a pilot that has less time at the controls than their 16 year old has driving cars. :eek:

Before you know it they will start selling train at home courses....Flight Sim should suffice!

i wonder if they will start paying there pilots, as much as regional pilots make here.

Bri85 please tell me that you are joking. The pilot jobs in Africa, Asia and the Middle East all pay far better than a comparable job here in the US. Aviation is one industry that we as Americans do not have to worry about people from other parts of the world undercutting us. Do some research on pay and benefits worldwide and you will soon see how bad things are here in the US.

Here is what happens when you let young males go fast before they gain experience......

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/lo...,2767626.story

India is bidding for pilots against other countries now and passing laws making harder for them to simply quit and go to a better paying job without a 3 month notice... there is a shortage, but it's not here!

In the end, we need to get away from the 400-500 hour RJ new hire thing.. just because an airplane today is automated and computerized with less airman skill needed to fly it doesn't mean we don't still have to hire experienced airman to man them.. there will never be a pilot shortage when you can get a right seat job on an RJ with little experience.

of course im joking!! ;)

Surplus
 

Here is my favorate part;

"there is no shortage of pilots in the U.S. to fly commercial jetliners. In fact, there is a pilot surplus. U.S. airlines laid off more than 10,000 pilots after the 2001 terrorist attacks. Many remain out of work, though some are taking jobs in Asia and the Middle East, where the shortage of pilots is most severe."

I would like to go back someday but not for 24K. You guys can use me as an indicator species. If I get hired at a decent company one day then there is really a pilot shortage. Until then .... :(

SkyHigh

"121 ONLY" Pilot Licence
 

On another thread I pitched the idea of having a "121 Only" commercial multi-engine pilot license program. The Seattle times article seems to suggest something similar.

Why not train new pilots from scratch to be airline jet only line pilots? They could get a few basics in piston planes but most of the training could be done in jet simulators. I have always thought it confusing to have to learn so many layers of FAR's; 61, 91, 135, 121 ect,,, Ops specs, limitations, VFR rules, piston plane aerodynamics and physics, Single engine stuff.

Most of what a new pilot learns is in preparation for a career as a piston VFR pilot. The FAA could do away with a lot of the current syllabus and efficiently train professional "airline only" pilots and be able to focus solely on what they need. I believe the results would be a better trained and prepared pilot.

SkyHigh

I don't remember where I read it, but there's a new concept being tested (Africa/India/China) to take a high school grad with no flying to the right seat of an airliner in 10-12 months. The program consists of about 80 hours in a Diamond single engine, and the the rest of the time in the 737-800 simulator.

Skyhigh-
I agree that our current FAA system is a bit antiquated. I remember studying for my ATP written in 2004 - it seemed biased towards the DC-9 and 727. I don't think you really need to know about P factor to be a good airline pilot. However, I think you need airmanship. You don't build airmanship in the simulator. You build it by flying the line and working your way up in a regional, or by flying military where you upgrade to the left seat of a heavy jet and getting combat experience.

The concept of training airline pilots with little real-world experience might work overseas where general aviation is non-existent. A long over-water flight terminating in a straight-in ILS in through Bravo may not require much experience in the system...

But if you're going to drive a 73 or an RJ into a multi-use non-Bravo airport on a Sunday afternoon in SOCAL you'd darn well better have a very good, instinctive handle on how GA works...those bug smashers don't always do what they are supposed to, or expected to.

I'm with SkyHigh on this one. I'll believe that there's a true "pilot shortage" when the majors/LCC's start handing out interviews like candy, and job offers nearly as much. As for now, I'm seeing lots of qualified folks at my regional airline still looking for their big break. There IS a pilot shortage at the regional level...but who wants to make their career at a regional?

Hi!

Boeing is starting a new subsidiary that is spearheading a new system of training pilots. They are starting in Australia. Boeing says that, worldwide, there is a need for 17,000 airline pilots per year, for the next 20 years.

cliff
YIP

Nope no pilot shortage, the industry has overcapacity right now according to most annalists. Our regionals are flooding the market with aircraft that are not needed. Creating an illusion of a pilot shortage. They can do this because of puppy mills selling the dream of a professional pilot.

This overcapacity leads to lower ticket prices, resulting in lower wages. They found a niche and are exploiting young pilots for a short-term gain.

Bri85, my sincere apologies and thank goodness you were joking.

MPL Training
 

This may be the program you're tallking about:
http://www.halldale.com/Assets/Files...s/Bell%202.ppt

I changed my mind about what I was going to say...

You absolutely nailed it!

I don't know about all that; check out EVA (Taipei) just road back in 1st class on them in a 747-400 with one of there FOs telling me the scoop. FOs make about 50K a year and the Captains not much more (non-union) 8 days off a month. When you make Captain you take a pay cut and start over at year one pay.

I don't know about you, but I'd rather not compete with a bunch of EVA type pilots placed in hotels here in the US forced to work under those conditions.

Ya, but how many of those 17,000 are flying RJs?

Good point. My initial fixed wing experience was ICAO (military) into civil and military fields. Things are done differently over there and it was a real eye opener when I started going into some places here in the U.S.

Don't worry
 

In a few more years the FAA will have done away with all the remaining "bug smashers". User fees, airport closures, 100LL gone soon too.

SkyHigh

How do you train for DCA River Visual 19, the LGA Expressway Visual 31, or the MDW 31C circle to 22L in a sim?

It can't be done. You only learn it through experience. Sims don't provide it, and the realism is lacking even with today's technology. The training environment is quite different from the real world. I know, I'm sitting seat support watching someone with less experience than me upgrading to captain. (He's senior to me.) He's been struggling.

If I ever make captain again, and I'm flying with one of these "graduates" they won't be doing much flying.

Hi!

How many are RJs?

I don't know too many pilots with 250 TT (other than Military or ab-initio) who can realistically expect to get their 1st airline job and fly a -777, A-340 or -787.

cliff
GRB

I can't confirm or deny that report about EVA air. However, I would wager that
1) they hired and trained that pilot from 0hrs- to 747 F/O

2) he/she never spent a dime of their own money on training

3) he/she worked not even one day for free trying to build time

4) he/she did not spend years of their life flying at even lower rates waiting to make it to a 747 for $50K/yr.

After flying at EVA for 3-5 yrs that pilot has much heavy experience and is marketable on the worldwide market for one of the better paying carriers or for contract work.

If what they told you is true, then that is not a great gig until you put in the context of the typical US pilot- out of pocket expenditure for training, sub-poverty level life as an instructor and then their $20K/yr job at a regional. The average US pilot will not see $50K/yr until they make Capt. at one of the better regionals.

Assume this
 

Actually this guy was about 40 years old, and came up the US way (lived in Florida) worked for Mesa prior to Omni, then left Omni for Eva based on a promise from Eva that it was such a great place to work. Now he says that he should have never left Omni.

Like I said, again; "This is what you want to compete with in the US?"

So based on this one example, is it your contention that the rest of the world can't wait to get their hands on the jobs here in the US? Bear in mind that (on average) there isn't a pilot surplus in other parts of the as there is here and that this particular guy is already an American that would be returning home.

Do you think that there will be a mass-exodus at BA, AF, LH, CX, etc. for our very lucrative and high paying jobs here? For every EVA there are many better airlines out there. I worked out of the US for a while and debated hard before returning- believe me it was a close call. I still have friends scattered around the globe and they are all treated better and paid better than I am flying similar equipment.

Did he by chance mention that he shouldn't have left Mesa?

I have heard that EVA has become a sort of bottom feeder of ex-pat jobs and that many others are heading in this direction like EK and CX... frankly.. I'd rather keep the US flying jobs for US Citizens and the others for the rest.. we alone are scheduled to double the number of jobs in the next 18 years according to this data, so why share it? We have good (if slightly week due to GW's politics) unions and they for the most part DONT!

Cheap Labor!
 

Dude, I'm talking about cabotage. The Eva's of the world can come into the USA and fly point to point with 200 hour wonder pilots (trained in the US in 3 months) and put them in hotels just sending them home for their 8 days off a month using their countries rule books for rest. Many of these Asian countries have no laws protecting them from work actions so their employees just take it especially since a 50K a year job in certain parts of Asia is a ton of money.

Why don't we just give all the jobs away in America to the lowest bidder? We need to be up in arms about this as a profession/industry because no one else will be effected like us. Most other quality jobs need a green card or citizenship to work in the US, but not flying if cabotage goes through because they aren't based here. This will be another "job Americans' aren't willing to do" someday so people can fly around for 10 bucks a crack.

I know this example is a stretch, but man we need to get the will to fight in this career again! Let's stop rolling over and stand up for ourselves! Even slavery was justified for most of mankinds legacy. The world is about cheap labor!

Doesn't it scare you that we have pilots here in the US that just don't get that? They think that they're immune to the same thing that has happened to American manufacturing and the IT sector. Heck, they're now outsourcing medical services to India! There is NOTHING that corporate America will not outsource because corporate "America" isn't about America, it's about itself and its own self interest.

Thanks for getting it!
 

Yeah it scares me a ton because I've got 28-33 more years of this and I want to be able to put food on the table, and stay in the same house for the next 20+ years. I can't believe pilots today, we have had it way to easy in the US apparently. The past is doomed to prepeat itself.

I bet most of these new guys have never read "Flying the line" and "Hard Landing". I am saving for a rainy day!

The buisness world dream is to have all of us working for the lowest worldwide wage. Just take a few trips to China or India and it is apparent we will never be able to compete on a wage scale. We are simply labor and soon it may be provided from overseas. And IMO we all have longer in this flying game then just to our retirement date, that is if we are planning on having a pension.

we dont offer a product with differences like Ford vs Honda. A EVA air or say a China Air pilot flying for 40k a year would produce the same revenue for his company as the Delta/United/America/FedEx pilot at 5 times the wage. And when 40K for a 747 capt is to much money they will hire someone else for less.

that's all I've been doing lately and I can tell you without a doubt that you're 100% dead on! I met a Malaysian CA flying an MD-11 that was taking home the equal of $2200 a month.. now he flies a wide body bus for the same.

My company has home base for pilots and sends you out to your airplane to start your trip (no matter where it is, including India, Vietnam, etc..) and so we're proof that it's not at all hard to manage crew changes that way.

Open Skies
 

Open Skies = Pilot job outsourcing.

What is to stop an Asian company from flying routes within America with pilots who are making less than half of what ours are? Deregulation will seem like the good old days.

Skyhigh

One thing about the lower wages in Asia, the cost of living is less (most places) than it is here.

and what part of asia are you living in? I'm at a hotel in Mumbai now where a beer costs $5, lunch is $20 and a haircut is $15.. The parts of Asia where the average American could tolerate living isn't any cheaper than the US, and is arguably more expensive.

Cost of Living
 

Perhaps it is not the cost of living in Asia that it is cheaper just the standard of living is less.


SkyHigh

I am acutely aware of the damage that the outsourcing of American jobs has had and will continue to have on hard-working Americans; I do read extensively and keep up on world economics and my sources do not include TV news. However, outsourcing is possible when there is a an ample source of labor appropriate to the task required- though it is unfortunate to admit, the average Indian high school graduate can easily and cheaply do telephone customer service and take American jobs. There are millions of these people willing and able to take those jobs at a moments notice and we've seen it happen. I don't support that and I am quite against it.

That said, India and China cannot find enough pilots to supply their own countries' voracious appetite for pilots. Their economies are rapidly growing due in no small part to the above mentioned outsourcing and other American business and in turn their airlines are experiencing dramatic growth. The airlines there cannot hold on their crews and India has even passed laws to try to prevent airlines poaching each others talent with better and better offers.

From what I understand, you are saying that pilots from those countries are going to pass up the opportunity to be better compensated at home to come here and take our jobs. How are they going to undercut the likes of Mesa specifically, or any other regional generally? The pay rates in those countries may not all compete directly with our top-tier carriers such as Fedex, UPS and SWA; forgve me if these were the carriers that you (plural) have been referring to. I thought we were using median pay and benefits industry-wide here in the US.

Everyone knows a guy whose work rules and pay are so bad that he would jump at an opportunity to work here in the US. I can only base my statements on facts that I can verify; I took a look at the pay scales of the international carriers listed here at airlinepilotcentral.com and I'm yet to see how it would be advantageous for these foreigners to leave their jobs to undercut the regionals here. Take a look at job-sites like climbto350.com and others and then tell me that there aren't well-paying international jobs out there, jobs that they would gladly take American RJ Captains and compensate them better than they are being compensated now.

I have a funny feeling that this thread has been a rant all along and I've interrupted with reason and logic- if that is the case, I sincerely apologise and I recuse myself.

Personally, I'd rather not roll the dice and find out just what will happen! United Airlines could have stopped deregulation back in the late 60's to early 70's (very influential with the CAB), but there CEO thought they would have an advantage do to market forces that made sense back then too. Look at the world now my friend.