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-   -   Half of Saudi Arabia’s production destroyed (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/major/124095-half-saudi-arabiais-production-destroyed.html)

Floobs 09-14-2019 09:10 PM
Half of Saudi Arabia’s production destroyed
 
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1VZ01N

They are saying $100 barrel of oil.

deftone 09-14-2019 09:38 PM
I know several guys that work out here as I was formerly in the Oil Industry prior to flying. They say production will be near norms levels by Monday. Most of the production drop was precautionary. No way oil gets up to $100.

rickair7777 09-14-2019 09:45 PM
Yeah, had a dinner with an oil dude tonight, minimal disruption.

Except for the Houthis... they are about to get seriously disrupted. Shouldn't have efffed with the crude production.

iahflyr 09-15-2019 06:26 AM
Some good info. I think prices will definitely spike.

The attack slashed its output by half, or about 5% of world supply. State energy producer Saudi Aramco lost about 5.7 million barrels per day. For the global oil market, the 5.7 million barrels a day outage is the worst single and sudden supply disruption ever, surpassing the loss of Kuwaiti and Iraqi petroleum supply in August 1990, and the loss of Iranian oil output in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution, according to data from the U.S. Energy Department. Aramco would need weeks to restore full production capacity to a normal level, according to people familiar with the matter.

deftone 09-15-2019 06:27 AM
Originally Posted by iahflyr (Post 2887643)
A few quotes from a few articles I read:
It’s a production outage, but as the articles state, they have sufficient reserves to draw down on to prevent/minimize a supply disruption.

iahflyr 09-15-2019 06:31 AM
Yes, and every time oil reserves are drawn down by even a little, prices spike a few dollars. Reserves are about to be drawn down by a lot.

Like it or not, oil is a commodity traded on the global market, and it’s about to get more expensive.

Now wait until Saudi Arabia starts retaliating for this attack. That will likely spook the oil markets even more.

Andy 09-15-2019 09:40 AM
Originally Posted by iahflyr (Post 2887648)
Yes, and every time oil reserves are drawn down by even a little, prices spike a few dollars. Reserves are about to be drawn down by a lot.

Like it or not, oil is a commodity traded on the global market, and it’s about to get more expensive.

Now wait until Saudi Arabia starts retaliating for this attack. That will likely spook the oil markets even more.
I'm sure oil prices will rise in the short term. I'm also sure that other producers will step in and fill any shortfall. And then some.

As for your statement that every time reserves are drawn down prices spike, I don't think that will stand up to backtesting the theory.

arizatonya 09-15-2019 09:56 AM
Originally Posted by Floobs (Post 2887560)
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1VZ01N

They are saying $100 barrel of oil.
Those smoking md80 Delta owns will cost much more to operate now.

Omniscient 09-15-2019 10:03 AM
Originally Posted by Floobs (Post 2887560)
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1VZ01N

They are saying $100 barrel of oil.
Where in this article does it reference $100 oil?

captjns 09-15-2019 10:54 AM
Originally Posted by Floobs (Post 2887560)
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1VZ01N

They are saying $100 barrel of oil.
An excerpt from a recent news item from CNN

Some analysts expect a smaller oil market rally in the short term. "A small $2-$3 per barrel premium would emerge if the damage appears to be an issue that can be resolved quickly, and $10 if the damage to Aramco's facilities is significant," Ayham Kamal of the Eurasia Group said in a research note.


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