Go Back  Airline Pilot Central Forums > Airline Pilot Forums > Major
Could China and the max grounding cancel out? >

Could China and the max grounding cancel out?

Search

Notices
Major Legacy, National, and LCC

Could China and the max grounding cancel out?

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 01-30-2020 | 05:57 AM
  #1  
Thread Starter
Banned
 
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 2,012
Likes: 0
Default Could China and the max grounding cancel out?

1) Max grounding has caused major capacity constraints.

2) Now there's an enormous surplus capacity for transpacific widebodies

Could #2 be redeployed quickly to take up the slack for #1?
Reply
Old 01-30-2020 | 06:56 AM
  #2  
rickair7777's Avatar
Prime Minister/Moderator
Veteran: Navy
 
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 44,618
Likes: 558
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
Default

Originally Posted by ZeroTT
1) Max grounding has caused major capacity constraints.

2) Now there's an enormous surplus capacity for transpacific widebodies

Could #2 be redeployed quickly to take up the slack for #1?
Widebodies would not be economical if flown empty, most especially on short domestic routes. Domestic pax expect frequency, so you can't replace multiple daily departures with one flight every day or two.

Also there aren't enough widebody gates for all those turns, and most of those are in international terminals.

It could be done if there were some kind of national crisis in air transport capacity, but nobody who has to turn a profit will likely go there. Maybe a very few transcons or maybe shorter NAT routes?
Reply
Old 01-30-2020 | 07:57 AM
  #3  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 5,467
Likes: 144
From: UNA
Default

I could see it working in a few markets. all 3 majors seem to deploy wide bodies domestically during the winter when they dont make money flying to Europe. with spring break coming up I could see using those planes to spots like florida and mexico. if these cancelation happen to extend into the summer ( I dont think they will) I could see them using Pacific wide bodies on some hub to hub routes that they fly wide bodies on during the winter for the slow europe travel season. probably cheaper than parking them
Reply
Old 01-30-2020 | 12:51 PM
  #4  
Line Holder
 
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 67
Likes: 0
Default

Originally Posted by rickair7777
Widebodies would not be economical if flown empty, most especially on short domestic routes. Domestic pax expect frequency, so you can't replace multiple daily departures with one flight every day or two.

Also there aren't enough widebody gates for all those turns, and most of those are in international terminals.

It could be done if there were some kind of national crisis in air transport capacity, but nobody who has to turn a profit will likely go there. Maybe a very few transcons or maybe shorter NAT routes?
You might see some expansion of what united been doing flying high density 777's between hubs, especially as a lot of hub to hub routes have enough frequencies that cutting one or two frequencies a day and keeping the number of seats the same might be viable, but it wouldn't open up all that much capacity.
Reply
Old 01-31-2020 | 05:13 AM
  #5  
Thread Starter
Banned
 
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 2,012
Likes: 0
Default

The economics of this would be in comparison to sitting empty for weeks. Slightly unprofitable would beat moderately unprofitable

And no you would not use a 777 3x/week to replace 7x/day crj service. But 5x/day 787 subbed for 8x/day a321 on a transcon might work
Reply
Old 01-31-2020 | 05:48 AM
  #6  
rickair7777's Avatar
Prime Minister/Moderator
Veteran: Navy
 
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 44,618
Likes: 558
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
Default

Remember the gates... those things normally do about 10-14 hours block, 2-3 at the gate. If it changes to 4-6 in the air, I doubt you'd have enough widebody gates. Will it be worth it to try to do hardstand ops? US majors aren't really geared up for that (like some foriegn majors).
Reply
Old 02-05-2020 | 07:06 AM
  #7  
Han Solo's Avatar
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 1,657
Likes: 0
From: Fastest Hunk of Junk in the Galaxy
Default

My company's optimizer can somehow poop out a 5 day trip with no layover longer than 12 hours, turn me into airport reserve with 4 hour sits, yet still pay no more than our average daily guarantee, I certainly hope they can figure out how to use spare wide body capacity.
Reply

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



Your Privacy Choices