ULCC or American?
 

Curious to get some opinions or thoughts. This is not a question I would have thought to find myself asking, but now I've got a choice and I'm going to ask the internet for some perspective (hopefully with minimal regrets).

Here's my situation. I'm newly employed by a ULCC, and I also have a CJO from American. At the ULCC I have about a 1.5-2.0 hour drive to work. I see myself being really happy here if it were the last place I worked for, however I do have ambitions to do widebody flying in my career, and that's not an option where I'm currently at. If I take the CJO from American I would have a 4 hour driving commute, with an option to fly commute, but with lots of competition for the jumpseat. Other than having a better commute at my ULCC it seems like I'll be sacrificing schedule flexibility, at least in the short term until American gets a new contract. I also have some reservations regarding American's current finances, and I worry about how well American will fair when the economy inevitably sours. But the prospect of getting in early with all the retirements and the opportunity for widebody flying are big draws for me.

I've sat down with my family and had the discussion of pros and cons for both, but I'm curious what some of you with more experience in the Part 121 world have to say. Are American's financial woes blown out of proportion? Things seem to change frequently in this business, so is it really something to worry about? Will American's new contract really fix a lot of the QoL issues? I'll leave it here, as you probably get the gist. Thanks in advance for the advice.

How old are you ? And would you guys ever consider a move to base at some point before retirement ?

Otherwise I would bail .. the AA retirement numbers are no joke .. meanwhile LCC have been hiring young pilots since inception . Progression is pinky done via growth which can’t stop tomorrow and other junior guys like you bailing .

best of luck ,many people would kill to have your chance.

The notion of retirement being the best way for seniority is half accurate. Not sure what ULCC you’re at, but assume Frontier or Spirit. Look at the confirmed orders on books, calculate the pilots, and see how many guys that would stack under you in those years....what percentage are you at? Now see how many years of retirements at AA it would take to reach that same level? Point is, bidding power comes from both sides.

And yes, “growth can end” and planes can be canceled but also AA can file BK again and more trouble woes too. I got hired at Spirit before the last airline order wave and to say I’m happy I didn’t think “oh Spirit is small, they could go out of business and airplanes canceled...”

Ask a SWA guy that started back when they were growing and see how those guys are on the seniority list. My only point is seniority comes from both ends.

if you want to fly heavies, that’s another thing. But you’ve gotten a taste of the ULCC gig and you know if it works for you. I wouldn’t leave; yet another AA or legacy guy will come on and say to leave because a legacy pilot might have a hard time understanding why anyone would want to make a career at a growing and profitable ULCC instead of a debt laden airline who is currently ranked last. Things can change, no doubt, but who is to say what “needs to get done” to fix the issues at AA.

The contracts between the two are an entirely different story.

Dont let the career define you. Find a place you can be happy at and make a good living. Enjoy your time home and find a way to do it as much as you can. Everything else is noise and can be gone tomorrow

That’s a pretty far drive. 4 hours both ends 3-5 times a month would get extremely old and expensive. AA is by far the worst place to be right now. I’m talking about the CBA. That being said it’s always better to go to worst one before it gets better, instead of the best place late. AA pilots will get a leading cba at some point and hopefully it becomes the best place to work. I take it you’re a younger guy. in 8/9 years you will be bidding 50% at AA out of 15k pilots. that’s a very long widebody career sir. AA says they will pay off 7 B in debt in 3 years, and Parker’s huge risks might actually workout. If I wasn't fortunate to have flowed or got hired at United I would have happily taken a 30 year career at Spirit or Jet Blue. If the last bid is any indication of things to come being at AA before 2023 you’re going to be able to pick your poison. Left seat NB or rolling into Europe in the Bunk of a 78. Personally I would make the switch and make the family move closer to my base. But, i’m a selfish only child so I dont know how that whole family dynamic thing works.

That extra drive would probably kill me. Possibly quite literally if doing it after a red eye. However, it seems like you want to be at a legacy and fly the big metal and have the money that comes with it. I say go for it. No regrets! I would try to move closer to the AA base if possible. And while I do place pass travel pretty close to last when picking where I want to work, I do wish I had the ability to take my family to other parts of the world in first class. Flying in coach on a zed fare with a family of four sounds pretty miserable to me which is why we vacation closer to home. Spirit guy here

While it pertains to Delta, one telling seniority “fact” (heard it here) was about seniority. Basically said that because of the age and numbers hired that If you’re hired today at something like 38, the most senior you’ll ever be is 2800. While I’m guessing on the age/numbers, it’s a close +-. It was telling to me because we all hear about how airlines are hiring tremendous numbers and that they are retiring the same, it doesn’t tell the same story. This was particularly interesting to me as I was at least looking to be sure I’m not doing what’s best for my family. As a 39 year old, 9 year captain that drives 38 miles to work its an intangible which is hard to beat on any spreadsheet. The ONLY thing that bothers me where I am (in terms of stay/go) is id bet my next paycheck that AA will be here when I retire, I wouldn’t do the same for my carrier. While I’m near certain that we would be bought/sold/merged before that happened, it’s not a given by any stretch of the imagination. As I’ve become “handcuffed” where I am, that’s the one metric that I’ve been trying to come to terms with is long term stability. Who cares where you are on a list or what you fly or how long your drive is if you’re on the street by 50. While NO ONE is stable, the government has made it clear they won’t accept any of the big 3 collapsing. My plan is be happy where I am, thankful for every extra night I’m home with my family, and be prepared to apply to PlaneSense when I’m on the street by 50.

While it pertains to Delta, one telling seniority “fact” (heard it here) was about seniority. Basically said that because of the age and numbers hired, that If you’re hired today at something like 38, the most senior you’ll ever be is 2800. Junior narrowbody captain is not an acceptable top out for me. While I’m guessing on the age/numbers, it’s a close +-. It was telling to me because we all hear about how airlines are hiring tremendous numbers and that they are retiring the same, it doesn’t tell the whole story. This was particularly interesting to me as I was at least looking to be sure I’m doing what’s best for my family. As a 39 year old, 9 year captain that drives 38 miles to work, its an intangible which is hard to beat on any spreadsheet. The ONLY thing that I lose sleep on where I am (in terms of stay/go) is id bet my next paycheck that AA will be here when I retire. I wouldn’t do the same for my carrier. While I’m near certain that we would be bought/sold/merged before that happened, it’s not a given by any stretch of the imagination. As I’ve become “handcuffed” where I am, that’s the one metric that I’ve been trying to come to terms with is long term stability. Who cares where you are on a list or what you fly or how long your drive is if you’re on the street by 50. While NO ONE is stable, the government has made it clear they won’t accept any of the big 3 collapsing. My plan is be happy where I am, thankful for every extra night I’m home with my family, and be prepared to apply to PlaneSense when I’m on the street by 50.

????
 

Who in govt said that it wouldn’t accept any of the big 3 collapsing? Did I miss that?

$15bil in post-9/11 bailout is a pretty strong signal they won’t let the big airlines fail.

Let’s not derail this thread, but essentially exactly what flyby said. This along with $80 billion to the auto industry proves the government believes in too big to fail. While nothing is guaranteed, I have a suspicion the government isn’t willing to let 900+ airframes of lift disappear overnight.

I agree that AA isn't going anywhere, but I sure wouldn't guarantee that they won't go thru bankruptcy again and gut the contract again.

They were the least profitable (by pre-tax margin) of any legacy, LCC or ULCC in 2019. So, yeah, any downturn would likely hit AA first.

And gas is cheap right now.... AA might quickly find themselves bleeding cash if fuel spikes again. Let's all hope that doesn't happen.

AA would do well if fuel spiked they have one of the youngest fleets on the market, something that cuts demand would be far worse for them because they have big lease or finance payments attached to many of those aircraft. While a legacy should probably never have less than 5 billion in debt (it makes them too vulnerable to someone buying the company with a loan against the company IE 1980's NWA).

Based on your post I assume you’re at Spirit. If you have a desire to fly a wide body or at least want the option, then go to AA where you’ll also make more money. If you want a better QOL, as a line holder I think it’s better here. Since you brought up the finance of both companies, I can’t help but think that in 2011, 2 weeks after Spirit ordered 75 Airbus, AA declared bankruptcy.

what aa base? makes all the difference. NYC? Then yes, go to AA. What base

I would go to American personally. You’ll have a lot of opportunities to fly different aircraft and routes. They might not be the best airline out there right NOW, but history shows that the best airline now might not still be the best in 10 years (or visa versa).

American, no question. More money, more opportunity.

*laughs in pan am

Go to AA, buy a Tesla, have the autopilot drive you as you catch up on Netflix. Problem solved. In all seriousness go to AA, if you can move to be within rsv rules for AA, I would do that and give yourself the option to be at home on rsv at a legacy or drive 2-2.5 hours to go fly big metal around the world. If you can get to with 2-2.5 hours of an AA domicile, then the NB flying is a wash and AA is the hands down choice. If you can’t move closer I’d still go legacy. Good luck with the decision.

So with ULCC captains maxing out at 270/hr now (plus everything over 82 hours paying 125%), plus 15% DC, doubling in size based on firm orders and upgrades being at around 2/3 years at Spirit / Frontier i wouldn’t be so sure about going to a legacy just to go to a legacy. I would circle back to this discussion in a few years when the economy is not so hot.

Easy drive to work, fast upgrade, I'd stay where you are.

Actually if fuel "spiked" the ULCCs will most probably clean up and the legacies especially UA and AA will feel the pain, especially if demand remained strong. The opposite is also true...lower fuel prices and the legacies can more closely match or undercut fares and not feel as much pain and push the ULCCs off routes.

A good recent example of this is when AA announced new 5x BOS-RDU service a few weeks ago, Spirit just canceled theirs after starting it in Jan 2019.

I've had that exact same commute and it is not fun. That drive is brutal if you have to do it and I would assume you can forget about sitting reserve at home. I did it for one year, purely for financial reasons, and then I moved to a base considering I had and still have over 30 years before punching out for good. Best of luck to you, but if it ain't broke then think long and hard before trying to "fix" it.

AA hands down.

How many former AA pilots are at your ULCC? How many pilots have left your ULCC for AA? I've flown at UA with a lot of former ULCC pilots - they are extremely happy with their decision. The level of support by the entire organization is so much better at UA (and I'm sure all other legacies) than at any ULCC.

If I were in your shoes, I wouldn't hesitate to go for AA.

There really isn't a one-size-fits-all approach to this as you suggest. Living in base or within a short driving distance will always win over commuting, even if that means choosing a growing ULCC over a legacy

Live. In. Base. (or nearby)

Exactly what you said ^.

Andy to answer your question, 15 guys I flown with as an FO who where furloughed legacy (twice for the UAL ones). Not one took the recall. Then again in fairness most of them are in their 50s now and making well over 300 living in base. How many fos have left you ask ? 3 that I know before the new contract. 1 after.

As far as the support you speak of goes, it won’t do you much good when the music stops and numbers 11000-14000 get furloughed. Honestly I think most people will be fine who got hired last few years at any legacy or (U)LCC. But I wouldn’t put my eggs in the legacy basket right before the music stops. Then again that’s me. With 30 years left and almost half the list below me I’m happy

Do you really want DUI Doug to be your CEO and the one leading your company? Mic drop.

Having personally been furloughed twice at United, I seriously doubt large furloughs at legacies even with a major downturn. And unless it's a really major downturn, I don't see any furloughs happening at legacies during the next recession - there are just too many retirements. Sure, some open time will probably dry up and line pay values will probably decrease slightly. But furloughs at AA, UA, DAL? Unlikely.
But that's always a fun card to play to scare pilots below you to not make the jump to a better life at a legacy.

I would encourage pilots both above and below me to go somewhere else if they believe it would make them happier ! Once you get to an income point where most of us are you finally start realizing (well a lot of us sadly do not) that bigger and more is not always better. Happiness, QOL and family is the only thing that matters. this being said I think it would have to get really bad especially with all the retirements happening no matter what for big numbers to get furloughed. Let’s hope that never happens for all of our friends.

and the better life comment I’m not going to comment on because I doubt you know our work rules so to claim it’s steps below yours .. ok, genuinely happy for you :).

Fixed it for you..

Well of course they are happy. If they didn't want to be at AA or another airline, they wouldn't have taken the time to apply and do what they could to get hired. We have pilots who are actually happy at Spirit or Frontier that would rather be here than AA for their own personal reasons. Many of them haven't updated their apps since they got hired. To say how many from ULCC went to AA vs AA going to ULCC is not a good argument. Take a look at some of the other thread and you'll see many "Should i leave this airline for that airline?" The pay is better at AA but QOL is subjective, and who knows what the future holds for any airline.

I don't think any of us really care if the junior pilots leave or stay. There's still thousands of pilots out there waiting to take their place.

I am not sure the conventional wisdom even applies any more. These ULCCs are growing 16-17% year over year. They have a young fleet of highly fuel efficient aircraft and a relatively young workforce which means their pilots are less costly even if they had the same payscales as the legacies - which they do not. It is an enormous advantage.

So which airlines are going to do better in the next recession - F9 and NK with their 4-5 year old A320 fleet or legacies like AA with their mixed aircraft fleet with an average age of 11 years (and a $23 Billion debt), United, and Delta both with 15 year old and less fuel efficient fleets? It might well be the ULCCs.

And please don’t say the Big Three are too big to fail, all three of them have been in bankruptcy in the last 16 years. We may be seeing a paradigm shift where the ULCCs are the airline equivalent of streaming video compared to the legacies DVD rental or (for those that remember) VHS.

Im going to go out on a limb and say the fact that MASSPORT approached AA about wanting to take some of their gates away because they had the lowest gate utilization rate compared to DL/UL/B6 had more to do with adding those flights than the price of fuel.

At least in Delta’s case, there is an enormous hedge built-in against a downturn - owned jets. With fuel prices low, economy strong, and MAX stored - the old planes still make a lot of money. If the economy starts to sour, DL can essentially throttle the owned 88s/90s/717s/757s/767s, and basically ‘park to profitability’. I would suspect that most ULCCs have a majority of their fleet leased, and it’s not as cheap or easy to park/return to lessor. Now of course I hope that scenario doesn’t occur, but with the thousands of pilots retiring in next few years - it’s hard to see a substantial furlough occurring at the legacy level. I can’t say i’m as confident for the ULCCs.
Lastly, when the economy dips, discretionary spending is typically the first thing that gets pulled back. The family trip to Disney gets put on hold, but the business trip to LAX is still going. Legacy carriers pay the bills with business travelers who are typically less sensitive to market swings.

I'm guessing Spirit canceled them because they saw the competition was too great and realized yields would be trashed. AA didn't add flights because fuel prices had decreased, but your point about them adding flights due to gate utilization certainly has merit. I could see that.

That is former NWA thinking. They called the DC9 the "accumulator fleet" for that reason. For an airline, a solid strategy.

There’s nothing revolutionary/disruptive about ULCCs. All they do is pay all of their employees below market rates. Not exactly a new idea.

That’s interesting, because I’ve heard the exact same thing about RDU: AA has the lowest gate utilization in Raleigh and the airport was threatening to do the same there.


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