If the pilot need is big enough in the future, maybe the majors/LCCs will hire people without degrees :D.

they/we (Spirit) already do....I know UAL has as well. Doubt DAL has, not sure about AA

Just to put things in perspective we’ve survived a lot worse:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...d-out-a-killer

And yes, a disease that targeted children is a h€|| of a lot worse than one that takes out people living in nursing homes.

I was reading in Italy the average age of the deceased is 80 years old. The average amount of chronic conditions they had was 3.


Worldwide economic destruction and suffering to slightly reduce the death rate of those that are already close to death.

It boggles the mind.

I find it funny that pornography is banned, the true *****s are in the mainstream media, social media and medical industry sycophants.

DAL won’t touch you without a triple MBA.

Unless you’re a barely qualified 24 year old with yuge tracts of land. Then you’re golden. In class within a month.

Made in China Pandemic
 

For anyone doubting the error of trusting Communist China, please read;

A Made-in-China Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic should be a wake-up call for a world that has accepted China’s lengthening shadow over global supply chains for far too long. Only by reducing China’s global economic influence – beginning in the pharmaceutical sector – can the world be kept safe from the country's political pathologies.

Brahma ChellaneyMar 13, 2020NEW DELHI – The new COVID-19 coronavirus has spread to more than 100 countries – bringing social disruption, economic damage, sickness, and death – largely because authorities in China, where it emerged, initially suppressed information about it. And yet China is now acting as if its decision not to limit exports of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and medical supplies – of which it is the dominant global supplier – was a principled and generous act worthy of the world’s gratitude.

1. https://webapi.project-syndicate.org...570b952eeb.jpg

   Piketty's Latest Charge

   Willem H. BuiterAt more than 1,000 pages, Thomas Piketty's doorstop sequel to his previous opus, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, does not disappoint. But whether it will fundamentally change the global debate about inequality is an open question.
   

When the first clinical evidence of a deadly new virus emerged in Wuhan, Chinese authorities failed to warn the public for weeks and harassed, reprimanded, and detained those who did. This approach is no surprise: China has a long history of “killing” the messenger. Its leaders covered upsevere acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), another coronavirus, for over a month after it emerged in 2002, and held the doctor who blew the whistle in military custody for 45 days. SARS ultimately affected more than 8,000 people in 26 countries.

This time around, the Communist Party of China’s proclivity for secrecy was reinforced by President Xi Jinping’s eagerness to be perceived as an in-control strongman, backed by a fortified CPC. But, as with the SARS epidemic, China’s leaders could keep it under wraps for only so long. Once Wuhan-linked COVID-19 cases were detected in Thailand and South Korea, they had little choice but to acknowledge the epidemic.

About two weeks after Xi rejected scientists’ recommendation to declare a state of emergency, the government announced heavy-handed containment measures, including putting millions on lockdown. But it was too late: many thousands of Chinese were already infected with COVID-19, and the virus was rapidly spreading internationally. US National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien has said that China’s initial cover-up “probably cost the world community two months to respond,” exacerbating the global outbreak.

Beyond the escalating global health emergency, which has already killed thousands, the pandemic has disrupted normal trade and travel, forced many school closures, roiled the international financial system, and sunk global stock markets. With oil prices plunging, a global recession appears imminent.

None of this would have happened China had responded quickly to evidence of the deadly new virus by warning the public and implementing containment measures. Indeed, Taiwan and Vietnam have shown the difference a proactive response can make.
https://webapi.project-syndicate.org...6cd5e77d55.png

Subscribe now

Subscribe today and get unlimited access to OnPoint, the Big Picture, the PS archive of more than 14,000 commentaries, and our annual magazine, for less than $2 a week.

SUBSCRIBE

Taiwan, learning from its experience with SARS, instituted preventive measures, including flight inspections, before China’s leaders had even acknowledged the outbreak. Likewise, Vietnam quickly halted flights from China and closed all schools. Both responses recognized the need for transparency, including updates on the number and location of infections and public advisories on how to guard against COVID-19.

Thanks to their governments’ policies, both Taiwan and Vietnam – which normally receive huge numbers of travelers from China daily – have kept total cases under 50. Neighbors that were slower to implement similar measures, such as Japan and South Korea, have been hit much harder.

If any other country had triggered such a far-reaching, deadly, and above all preventable crisis, it would now be a global pariah. But China, with its tremendous economic clout, has largely escaped censure. Nonetheless, it will take considerable effort for Xi’s regime to restore its standing at home and abroad.

Perhaps that is why China’s leaders are publicly congratulating themselves for not limiting exports of medical supplies and APIs used to make medicines, vitamins, and vaccines. If China decided to ban such exports to the United States, the state-run news agency Xinhua recently noted, the US would be “plunged into a mighty sea of coronavirus.” China, the article implies, would be justified in taking such a step. It would simply be retaliating against “unkind” US measures taken after COVID-19’s emergence, such as restricting entry to the US by Chinese and foreigners who had visited China. Isn’t the world lucky that China is not that petty?

Maybe so. But that is no reason to trust that China will not be petty in the future. After all, China’s leaders have a record of halting other strategic exports (such as rare-earth minerals) to punish countries that defied them.

Moreover, this is not the first time China has considered weaponizing its dominance in global medical supplies and APIs. Last year, Li Daokui, a prominent Chinese economist, suggested curtailing Chinese API exports to the US as a countermeasure in the trade war. “Once the export is reduced,” Li noted, “the medical systems of some developed countries will not work.”

That is no exaggeration. A US Department of Commerce study found that 97% of all antibiotics sold in the US come from China. “If you’re the Chinese and you want to really just destroy us,” Gary Cohn, former chief economic adviser to US President Donald Trump, observed last year, “just stop sending us antibiotics.”

If the specter of China exploiting its pharmaceutical clout for strategic ends were not enough to make the world rethink its cost-cutting outsourcing decisions, the unintended disruption of global supply chains by COVID-19 should be. In fact, China has had no choice but to fall behind in producing and exporting APIs since the outbreak – a development that has constrained global supply and driven up the prices of vital medicines.

That has already forced India, the world’s leading supplier of generic drugs, to restrict its own exports of some commonly used medicines. Almost 70% of the APIs for medicines made in India come from China. If China’s pharmaceutical plants do not return to full capacity soon, severe global medicine shortages will become likely.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the costs of Xi’s increasing authoritarianism. It should be a wake-up call for political and business leaders who have accepted China’s lengthening shadow over global supply chains for far too long. Only by loosening China’s grip on global supply networks – beginning with the pharmaceutical sector – can the world be kept safe from the country’s political pathologies.

That article acts as if Chinese control over manufacturing was something they came by through nefarious means instead of being the cheapest.

Blame the race to the bottom for higher stock prices or corporate greed, but not some scheme by the Chinese to take over the world.

So are they suggesting higher priced clothing and pharmaceuticals by moving manufacturing away from some foreign dynasty? Try getting that past a democratic debate!

Back on topic. Yes I also am of a firm opinion that this will deepen the pilot shortage. Consider the following:

A 57 year old ish fella who followed a dream from a stable career and into a promising industry. Lapped up by the regionals with a promise of riches only to be dumped 2 or so years after hire. So it goes he goes back to doing a real adult job after being let go. Two years pass, he gets the call at 59 from his old regional asking him to come back..... What would you do? He ain't coming back. What would you do? What would your wife say?

Scenario two. A 20 year old fella is 30 hrs into his flight trainng and the reality is staring him in the face. His uncle is a pilot and has been furloughed. His flight instructor who was on track for aviate has seen her future vanish into thin air. This young pup still has another $80k to spend..... Staring down the barrel of that what would you do?

Scenario 3. AA ****s the bed and all pilots are on the street. Everyone over about 57 or so has a high paying job.... Had so for the last 10 years or so. $300k plus. They hit the street. The regionals wring their hands...and offer them (if there are jobs avaliable) a slick FO job at $45 per hour and show them the way to the bottom of a seniority list. They can either accept that its over and retire 6 to 7 years early, or fall in love with aviation again. What would you do?

This will thin the heard.....

If this lasts longer than a month or so it's going to have very deep long term effects economically.


On the other hand, if after a few weeks we get an "all clear" or the media moves on to the next weekly national distraction and people start to live their normal lives again then and forget about this, then I'd say we'll all be doing pretty well by the end of the year again. Not as good as before this hit, the market was at an all time high, but not nearly as bad as 08 or other previous downturns.

Just looked up a couple of numbers. After 9/11 it took just under three years for the number of airline passengers to reach the levels they were at right before 9/11. Certainly the airlines are in a MUCH better position now than they were when 9/11 occurred. They have (it seems) several mitigation strategies available to them now that may not have been available then, we’re just entering the massive retirement boom at the legacies and others, and arguably there was some pent up demand for the Max’s for which now the pressure is relieved for a while. However, someone put it very well recently (speaking about the economy), saying that “this is like a very healthy person having a heart attack. Heart attack victims don’t just hop up off of the gurney, no matter how healthy they were right before”. The economy by most measures was VERY healthy right before this “heart attack”’, and that should help it recover much more quickly than a sick economy, but the fact remains that we’re gonna be in the hospital for a while, even if the actual virus danger passes quickly. I, just as much as everyone else, want to believe that this will be over soon and that the economy, especially the airlines, make a miraculously quick recovery. I suspect (guessing out of my a$$ of course) that the recovery will probably be somewhere in the middle. If seats get back to pre-corona levels in, say, half the time it took after 9/11, with all of the aforementioned advantages that we had going in to this, maybe airlines pick up hiring again by the end of the year, and if not, almost certainly sometime in 2021. But, my gut tells me it’s gonna take a good bit longer than that before we’re back in the position we were a month ago where it was a hard core pilot’s market. I REALLY hope I’m wrong about that, but at the very least this has taken a year or more of robust balls to the wall hiring out of the equation that we likely won’t ever get back. In technical terms, this sucks. BUT, I do appreciate the intention of this thread. Talking about how good it might be later vs. how awful it is now is a nice diversion from the gnashing of teeth going on everywhere else. This will pass, it’s just gonna hurt for a while.