You also didnt mention the MASSIVE amounts of stimulus pumped in. In 2008 the problem was a known quantity.

This time they are throwing everything at this.....but they dont know where itll end. Hell they dont know the problem.

They could have massivly overstoked the fires......the finance guys i have spoken to think thats the case and tjat it will come roaring back.....but what they are ommiting is that mother nature is in charge of this one not some esoteric invisible hand.

I am 110% certain that aviation will boom in the future. I am also certain there will be a massive more pronounced pilot shortage.....

Just not sure when.... And that is the key. The off set is that the longer this goes the more exacerbated the shortage will become. A recession is the opposite of credit....... It is simply a build up of unrealised consumption.

I didn’t see anything claiming “nefarious means”, unless you consider corporate Boards always looking for cheapest over Made in America. The Chinese are nefarious about a lot of things, but as you point out, we’ve done this to ourselves.

Hopefully this latest virus will cause us to wake up to our pharmaceutical supply chain and consider it as important as our defense industry supply chain. Depending on any foreign nation, especially China, for 90% of our antibiotics is unacceptable.

As for a Democratic debate, that’s an easy one once the unions get on board with “Make it in America Again”.

spirit?

Listen there are a lot of guys that should of got that degree and 1000 PIC. That lesson needs to be learned the hard way every decade for some reason.

While I appreciate some of the more positive outlooks I am hearing, I just disagree. The amount of individual income and industrial earnings that are being lost are massive. This could be worse than 2008 unless it is contained in a matter of weeks. If this shutdown lasts into late April or May, the Summer is lost and 30% of pilots are on the streets with no other options. This is affecting ALL sectors and all investments. We are talking depression here. The government can only prop up the market while others pump money in. The gov money is only as good as the trust that investors have in the market.
I think we are looking at 2 years of severe recession and I pray that Im wrong. Keep track of the supply chain and expect a possible collapse of portions of society as panic sets in.
Sorry for being such a Debbie downer wah.wah. ;)

Post your short positions then

https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts

best video from the Guru. Few more months of this at least.

Should’ve.*

Learned that in college.

First...there is not, and there has never been a pilot shortage. In a "real" labor shortage, a type rated airline pilot with a clean record at Jetblue or Spirit should be able to give Delta a call and get an interview and class date. There are no "pools" or anything of the sort.

Is there a shortage of high school age kids who are unwilling to take on a couple of hundred thousand dollars in debt to make less than a truck driver for a handful of years and run the risk of seeing their salary top out around that of a Wal-Mart store manager? You bet there is.

This is the sort of created labor shortage the C-suite whines about when they want to hire $9 an hour engineers to build the MAX over at Boeing, not a real one.

Post #1:


By post #3, it had gone political and the inevitable personal attack didn’t occur until all the way down in post #5!




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Leaning towards it will be very good again, it’s all cyclic in this career field. UPS and Downs, but down for how long and how bad remains to be seen. Recovery will be slow and here lies the problem perhaps:

Not likely to come “roaring back” when you consider what the impacts are vs 9/11 let’s say. You could implement security measures immediately and slowly prove to the public it’s much safer to fly with visible reassurances.

Virus: This is an unseen enemy that lies in wait and has leeched itself to affecting your everyday life outside an airport based upon super hype. Whether credible super hype or not, it doesn’t matter as it’s happened. Sporting Events, Entertainment Venues, Theaters, Restaurants, Conventions, ALL Institutions of Learning, Religion, Medical Facilities, Tourism on an immense scale, Grocery Stores and the list goes on and on. Many everyday activities have shutdown or have crowd restrictions.

- Initially schools will come back in play. (Baby Sitters cost $) 2 household incomes and this virus avoids youth it seems thankfully.
- Restaurants, entertainment venues, concerts, sporting events are the escapism of our society and will rise again if some of them haven’t gone out of business... but business replaces business which takes time.
- People who come back fast to fly are those visiting families who have been separated, etc., AND businesses who really require the human interaction to connect their services, etc.
- Tourists will jump on the initial cheap tickets when they personally feel this pandemic has reached its course, etc. Otherwise it’s “we’ll think about it next year” for most.
- The slowest to return to the passenger arena will be those small or LARGE businesses that realize they spend waaaay too much $$$ on their folks traveling/hotels/per diem when they now have proven (yet again for some places) Video Telephone Conferencing (VTC) will do the job without a handshake. Bean counter engagement.

Government/Military agencies go thru this once in awhile during years with significant budget issues. The quarterly budgets get cut, travel gets cut significantly and the VTC rooms are booked all day long. Bean counters get ahold of the cost savings and Bam, you’re lucky to get half the budget next year.

Super Conventions (10-30K or even more) will come back on line eventually, but not until next year as they are planned well ahead of time to meet logistical requirements. The gap missed this year is huge, maybe the Fall schedules can remain intact.

9/11 fear of flying was different. It’s not just Flight deck doors, TSA and Federal Air Marshals, etc.
9/11 doesn’t compare as a whole when considering the economic structure of our nation and the movement of this virus terrorist. As well as our media movement about it.

Just my thoughts to unfortunately support the notion that most things will not come “roaring back.” I hope I am totally wrong!
We’re not all going to die, this wasn’t the first and won’t be the last hiccup or national crisis. Life will go on and you can find something to be happy about. You can spend time with your family, have smaller get togethers, enjoy your Big Screen Entertainment, surf the net, stare at your phones, shoot your guns, drink your coffee and Beer is still available right now.