All airlines would love to run their reserves like that.

I’ll predict Alaska furloughs before year’s end, their incentive line and early out package while good was based on a far more robust recovery than what is taking place. I’ll bet it it’ll wind up being in the 30% range, so 1000 or so when it’s all said and done.

UAL, with 21%-ish furlough is leading the big three, all of whom have large exposure with international flying which 1) is not coming back anywhere nearly as quickly as domestic and 2) involves many very expensive capital assets parked on the ramp.

So how does AS, with domestic route structure and equipment, and a large leisure-travel emphasis get to 33% furloughs?

NK just this week did some LOAs and announced no pilot furloughs, that's in the context of the latest industry projections.

I suspect at this point everyone who can afford to do so are waiting to see how a vaccine plays out, because vaccines are coming Q1 or maybe late Q4.

Alaska put out to the employees what they were over staffed by in each department, the pilot number was 1000.

Presumably that's right now, not summer or Q4 2021.

If mid/late 2021 starts looking real bad, then all bets are off for sure.

But I think anyone who can actually afford to, will wait and see how vaccines play out. Vaccine deployment will *probably* mark a sharp upturn in demand and the broader economy. Any domestic carrier who cuts 1/3 of their pilots is likely to get caught with their pants down next spring/summer... and SWA will be there to pick up what you left on the table.

That's the hidden danger of allowing modifications to guarantee as a furlough mitigation measure. It is often ignored (or accepted as a given) but it is one of the biggest benefits in any contract. Without it we are just like any other hourly worker.

as someone in the bottom half of the list I have a tough time with it. The unionist in me believes that if pilots are getting furloughed there should be shared sacrifice throughout the seniority list.

It doesn't seem right that someone should be losing their job and everyone else just goes on as if nothing happened. Whether that sacrifice is a lower guarantee, or an embargo on open time... just SOMETHING to share the pain a little bit.

My fear at this airline in particular is that there would be a furlough and the rest of the pilot group would happily fly extra to pick up the slack, negating the need for the airline to recall for even longer.


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They didn't award all EILs. Before we go that route, I hope they award the EILs to those who wanted it. Or maybe even do another bid for EOs, REILs, and EILs.

There's no right answer, and opinions will vary with seniority. Some ALV/guarantee reduction is a reasonable compromise but at some point it doesn't just make sense... where does it end? Eliminate all benefits and 15 hour/month guarantee/ALC to avoid all furloughs?

Also, the lower the ALV, the less efficient it is for the company, considering training and benefits overhead.

No flipping way! AS recovery is very near expectations, future bookings are better then expected.