Reuters Predicts Big 4 Consolidation
 

Not sure I see it, at least between the big four themselves. AA and UA?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2991JV

1800 plane and 29,000 pilot seniority list legacy? Sure, send it.

I think it’s more likely we see the big 4 shrink/bankruptcy reorganize a bit, then pick off alaska, jetblue, spirit, frontier.

Repeat the decade after 2001...


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I don’t see any of the 4 being able to take ahold of the entirety of any one airline within this group. However, I could see one of the 4 being cut into pieces and merged or purchased into the remaining 3.

Alaska will buy AA out of 11 with government 0% loans.

Then AS will get rid of all the 320 products, 787 products, and anything else that does not smell like a 737. This would obviously make the most sense.

Stephen Wolf will come out of retirement with hedge fund and government loans to purchase AA and rename to USair east 4 life. Congress will amend 401k statute to allow corporations to raid them and wolf will sure up airline with all the employees 401k.

Those four airlines aren’t exactly in pick off territory. They’re going to be the ones doing the picking.

Wouldn’t it be more likely that the non-big 4 merge? Spirit/frontier, Hawaiin/jetBlue

What is really hurting the Big Three is the multi-type fleet and the International and business flyer dependent models right now due at least to some extent to the effect seniority and training requirements have on multi type fleets.

Sure, Spirit and Frontier merging would give economy of scale, but those two really aren’t in serious economic trouble or costing the US government much anyway. Hawaiian and Jet Blue? Until business travel turns around JetBlue is in trouble, until international turns around Hawaiian is in trouble. Yoking them together probably decreases the prospects for either of them.

Nope, I think what they are talking about are the three airlines that the government is spending the most money on. The LCC/ULCC business model was designed for hard times.