Reuters Predicts Big 4 Consolidation
 

Not sure I see it, at least between the big four themselves. AA and UA?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2991JV

1800 plane and 29,000 pilot seniority list legacy? Sure, send it.

I think it’s more likely we see the big 4 shrink/bankruptcy reorganize a bit, then pick off alaska, jetblue, spirit, frontier.

Repeat the decade after 2001...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don’t see any of the 4 being able to take ahold of the entirety of any one airline within this group. However, I could see one of the 4 being cut into pieces and merged or purchased into the remaining 3.

Alaska will buy AA out of 11 with government 0% loans.

Then AS will get rid of all the 320 products, 787 products, and anything else that does not smell like a 737. This would obviously make the most sense.

Stephen Wolf will come out of retirement with hedge fund and government loans to purchase AA and rename to USair east 4 life. Congress will amend 401k statute to allow corporations to raid them and wolf will sure up airline with all the employees 401k.

Those four airlines aren’t exactly in pick off territory. They’re going to be the ones doing the picking.

Wouldn’t it be more likely that the non-big 4 merge? Spirit/frontier, Hawaiin/jetBlue

What is really hurting the Big Three is the multi-type fleet and the International and business flyer dependent models right now due at least to some extent to the effect seniority and training requirements have on multi type fleets.

Sure, Spirit and Frontier merging would give economy of scale, but those two really aren’t in serious economic trouble or costing the US government much anyway. Hawaiian and Jet Blue? Until business travel turns around JetBlue is in trouble, until international turns around Hawaiian is in trouble. Yoking them together probably decreases the prospects for either of them.

Nope, I think what they are talking about are the three airlines that the government is spending the most money on. The LCC/ULCC business model was designed for hard times.

I think it's more likely to see a big four airline merge with a smaller one, that might be play out more than once.

Might also be a tail wagging the dog scenario, with a smaller, but better financed, airline in the driver's seat. Too bad for Doug that there's nobody left who's bigger than AA.

+100

Doug should have left AA for Alaska at the top of the market, then he could have done it all over again!

Business travel is only 15-20% of JetBlue’s market pre-Covid. Probably less now with all the new Covid routes they’ve announced.

Not going to happen. Ripe for an anti-trust intervention.

The premise of the article was that the fed will in fact allow (and possibly fund) mergers under dire economic circumstances, which would not fly otherwise. It gave some examples from '08.

I don't really see mergers between the big four, but I do agree that the trust-busters would might take a pass under the circumstance of catastrophic industry disruption.

If the pat actions with the railroads are any indicator, it doesn't look good. PanAmtrak?

That article comes across as just another click-bait, airline hating hack job. Almost as bad as articles by Thomas Pallini from Business Insider. Not as bad...but close

I still don’t see a merger with Hawaiian being to JBs advantage.

I don’t see a merger with Hawaiian being to anyone’s advantage, except maybe Hawaiian.

I perceive a writer, without basis and without wisdom is shooting from the hip.

Four biggest consolidating? Not going to be permitted. Merger with a smaller, possibly. Too big to fail, likely, with government bailout, possibly. Chapter 11 reorganization, likely. Chapter 7 and going out of business, liquidation, not likely.

Can we start the Hawaiian/Southwest rumor
again?

That would give DAL an opportunity to lease some more DC-9 derivatives ... oh wait RA is long gone.

the news/Internet is almost always right

^^^ shack ^^^

Yet another article implying the possibility of M&A activity this year...hmmm.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/these...205740633.html

I wouldn't even have bothered, except it was Reuters and they strive to report facts or reasonable opinions.

Allow this example of journalistic opinion to give you pause when you read another one concerning an industry with which you are not so familiar.

In related news, the 777 struggles to maintain altitude when the tanks are empty.

another Jetblue & United merger

Wild guess...you weren’t an AF pilot.

That's true though. Make fun of CNN all you want, but that's a true statement!

writer want to eat too sometimes and they only get paid if they write something
markets make money when there is movement, regardless whether it's up or down
write a piece that can theoretically move markets - someone's going to pay for it.
crisis averted, food for a month, who cares about the rest

Allegiant is flush with cash, made money all through 2020, and the majority owner/CEO has been bragging about great opportunities for months. Watch a much bigger airline collapse and Allegiant pick up the pieces. Kind of like how Dougweiser ended up running AA… stranger things have happened.

Yeah if market cap is low enough, anything might happen. Like you said, not the first time.

Making fun of CNN is the fact that they felt it necessary to point out that fact to their audience. It should be taken as an insult by them just the same as if they point out the fact that water is wet. ;)

Yeah I know. I was trying to be funny, not defend CNN. The world desperately needs a sarcasm font or something

?????

Allegiant through Q3 2020 has lost $155.3M, and has $709m in cash/cash equivalents.

I love Allegiant’s business model but the numbers don’t lie. FWIW AA’s market cap is over $9b.

After re-reading my post, I was trying sarcasm and realized it was badly written. But you seem to have gotten my point. ;)

with aa not being an alpa carrier, they would be exposed to some potential merger outcomes that would suuuuuck. Bad idea all the way around. Makes for fun internet chatter, though.

They could be offered the same package they offered the TWA guys. Pretty simple.

LMFAO! Beautiful!