US airways declared bankruptcy twice post 9/11

True.

Although it was “packaged” bankruptcy for credit leverage.

If it were me I think I’d imagine worst possible outcomes with either decision and try to think how I’d cope (financially, mentally, etc.) So lets say you decide to stay put and years down the road you can see that if you had made the switch it would’ve worked out fantastically. Would you be endlessly kicking yourself for not taking the risk or reasonably at peace knowing you made the best decision at the time? Vice versa if you do leave and things go bad while seeing had you stayed all would have been well.

Congrats on the offers & good luck with the decision!

Who hear thinks AA will file bankruptcy again within the next 10 years?

A quick trip through Bankruptcy Court to shake off that pesky $50 Billion in debt is a wise business decision. Plus, they can gut the labor contracts. Again.

You got to think about this stuff before jumping ship. Cycles repeat. Bad times will come again. Guaranteed. Where do you want to be when it does?

Normally I would say if that happens we’re all screwed but in this labor shortage environment I’m not sure other management could or would attempt it? We’re kind of in uncharted waters.

Not as simple as it used to be (before changes were made to the law). Management can very easily lose their company and their jobs now... creditors can force sale or liquidation if they think that's the best ROI. They'll likely try to avoid it if they can.

The days of making a quick trip through the BK drive through to shed inconvenient obligations should be behind us.

Isn’t this assuming no growth?

Yes. Im assuming little to no growth for the big airlines. If you are AA, you are already huge, already fly everywhere and have fierce competition. The legacies have to fight off the other legacies, the LCCs and the ULCCs. Not everyone can grow.

It's a tough business with tough competitors. There's always a lower cost operator out there selling cheaper tickets.

not counting regional flying, what "growth" is happening at the Big-3 ? What "new routes to Europe/Asia/etc" have been announced. How about "expansion at XXXX hub" ? big-3 iron, not regional feed or by forming alliances AA/JetBlue style.

I would surmise that the answer would be little to none.

(meanwhile ULCC's are on fire)

every week I see announcements for new routes from American and United.