Severe business surplus.

Sure, they’re fine with regional pay NOW. But we’re still dealing with the stigma about pilot pay from when people used to take pay cuts to go from a CFI to a regional FO, which was not that long ago. There’s always a lag time between when pay improves and when that fact pierces the general psyche of the population.

Regardless, the solution is not to enact changes that will cause ALL airline pilots’ pay to stagnate or go down, because then you’re back to people not wanting to become airline pilots at all, ala 2000s and early 2010s.

Being an airline pilot is not that sexy to young people anymore (if it ever was), so there HAS to be something about the career that outweighs the many, many cons of being in this profession. Pay and the promise of a better lifestyles are the things that will do it, not diluting the requirements.

Yes, GA is expensive.

How many people buy their own planes to build their hours vs getting flying jobs though?

I agree with most of what you said. No one wants to be an Airline Pilot anymore. I’m not entirely sure that pay alone is going to change that. When was the last time a kid or young adult asked to come up to the flight deck after a flight and pick your brain about how to become an Airline Pilot when they grow up. I’ll tell you that 15-20 years ago it used to happen all the time. In the last decade, it’s happened exactly zero times. To me, that’s a major alarm that this job is not even being looked at or considered by the next generation. I think technology has a lot to do with it. Flying just doesn’t seem to be that interesting when you can escape to the Metaverse whenever you want. I also honestly think the fact that Pilots have to pass drug testing is going to become a factor as well. There is a major drug crisis in this country that no one wants to discuss. I do think that industries that require vigorous drug testing (Airlines) are going to have trouble getting candidates that can even pass a drug test as sad as that is. The other thing working against us is that no one wants to work anymore. Everyone wants to work from home. You can’t do that in our line of work. All the Airlines can offer is pay to attract future talent. I just hope it’s enough to work. Unfortunately, I think pay alone won’t be enough of a motivator to get people to go into this industry. Flying is going to have to be made to look sexy and prestigious again to attract the TikTok and YouTube star generation.

I don't think he was saying that people buy a cirrus to learn to fly. Rather that, flight schools have to invest millions to buy airplanes. Modernizing fleets is very expensive for flight schools and they need to recoup that some how.
I paid 80$/h for flying in the duchess, today they charge 5-600$/h.

Generally agree that all that's a factor. But the big problem right now is simply a whole lot or retirements in one decade. If it wasn't for that the pipeline could keep up.

In fact I still think it could keep up IF the leagcies had grabbed the pipeline by the horns and restructured it to met their needs a few years ago, as opposed to just assuming everything would be fine.

If they offered paid training from day one (perhaps with housing and a living stipend) I bet they'd get as many qualified applicants as they could handle. You could probably assess those who would succeed at the airlines at the instrument rating point, assuming some airline-specific testing along the way. That's very affordable in the context of what legacy FO's get paid.

The airline profession is one of many professions a young individual can choose. The airline career has to compete with those alternative career choices and is losing. At present, a young person just starting out has to essentially run a gauntlet - PPL, CFI, Regional - to even have the chance of getting to somewhere that will simply pay them. God help you if you lose your medical, or your timing is off and you get to experience a lost decade, or your regional collapses and you have to go to another regional. There is a very significant chance you never get to a legacy or even a major.

Most other career paths have the earning potential entirely tired up in the individual and their skill level. A pilot's earning potential is heavily tied up in the aircraft they are flying - how productive they are - so if you can't get to that bigger aircraft you are SOL.

I am not surprised that the airline pilot profession is losing out in the competition for young people. As someone who essentially stumbled into the industry and found out I love it, I generally don't recommend it for kids who ask because there are just so many better options if you're 18 and can do anything. As rewarding as it can be I can't recommend the typical civilian route to the airlines.

Airlines need to remove the gauntlet that young people have to run if they want a career in this field.

let the market figure it out, I don’t want to sit next to a 70 year old and I don’t want to babysit a guy like the atlas fo. If Karen from Roanoke doesn’t get her choice of 6 rjs a day, then so be it.

Sounds like that must be Scott Kirby or that goofball from Republic talking.

Along with what others have said, The QOL from zero to about 6000 hrs is pretty garbage with a few moments of reprieve interspersed , this is a huge deterrent. Spend your entire young adulthood slumming it in random hotels, while missing events, weekend gatherings, and the maturing of your friend community so that you can enjoy a pretty cherry life at age 45-65. That’s not how millennials and likely gen z think. Most are low time preference. Time is a precious resource and the pilot career is far too back-end weighted. What’s the point of making a ton of money at 60 when you’re already comfortable. At 35 you’re still taking huge lifestyle concessions. This job ages you, can potentially torpedo your social life in your prime and pays out only once you hit mid life

as an aside the prospects we speak about are likely perusing this very forum and making the informed decision that way