Will Embrarer fill the void left by Boeing?
 

no.

10char

The make a great RJ. i keep hearing they are working on a comperable to the A320 and the B737-700/800. That still leaves a lot on the table that they are not showing signs of picking up. So, short answer, no.

well, according to Embraer, no.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...q1-2024-05-07/

They had every intention of pushing up the size and efficiency of their aircraft offerings but ran afoul of the US scope clauses like the larger E2 series. Then there was the reluctance of Brazil to give up the Embraer defense branch of the company to Boeing that did in the planned sale to Boeing. But they have every skill set needed to build something bigger and competitive.

https://www.financialexpress.com/bus...-iaf-3389594/#

Yeah the hump (very big hump) is the US scope clauses right smack in the middle of their obvious NB growth path.

They can't market a 180-seater out of the blue... they would be crushed by both BCA and AB. Deliberately.

Their potential path would be to establish a customer base and product support niche in the 100-seat range and gradually sneak in bigger planes. But scope...

The US isn't the only place you can sell planes, but China will eventually build exportable NB's, and the non-US market is what they're going to target. So competition everywhere. I can't really blame Embraer for staying in their niche.

Crushed? They can barely keep up and stay profitable. If Embraer wants to make a competing NB, they will. It’s all about resources.

no, they will not. Why? Because they don’t have the resources.

The hump bites two ways. It makes sense to have a single type aircraft ranging from 70-120 seats. But it only makes sense if the same pilots fly both the smaller and larger variants.

It also makes more sense in the US than most other high income countries. We have a huge landmass full of small to medium sized cities with airports. China and Russia also fit this description but are middle income.

Embraer should have bought the C series, it’s already designed to scale up to a -500 variant.

Bombardier should have launched the -500 first.

They would have to spend a fortune to sell what it already does. Airbus only has to put it into production when the time is right. They also should have bought the CRJ support, I think Mitsubishi is lost with that.

Life just doesn't work that way.

1. Airbus likely had more money to buy it than Embraer.

2. Launching the -500 first? Typically the smaller versions are launched first before the stretch. For example, 737-100 and 200 were launched before the 737-800 and Max.

That is how it works in real life.

It didnt cost a lot of money

The C-Series was selling poorly and widely regarded as a commercial flop. Airbus became a partner for peanuts to act as a stability booster. Then Boeing being Boeing lobbied to get ridiculous import duties imposed after the Delta order. Bombardier practically gave away the operation because it was a money loser at the time and Airbus could move production to the USA to avoid import duties.

Also, Airbus started with the midsize version of the 320 series in 1988, then the biggest in 1994 (321), then went small in 1996 (319), then smaller in 2003 (318)… defying historical precedence

They sold the first 50% of the program to Airbus for literally $1

https://www.theairshowpodcast.com

these guys had a recent episode discussing the likelihood of Embraer making a real 320/737 challenger

I could be wrong but I don't think that Airbus got involved until after the trade war started?